FanintheStands

[quote name="speechless" post="958520" timestamp="1296571074"] and the png coach knew the odds of nederland scoring if he came out and extended his defense were triple the odds of them scoring if he sat back and waited [/quote]and you have a wide open game again.  A lot can happen in 90 seconds. But, recalling all the queries about where I got my percentages from, where do you get triple the odds?  Knowing these odds, it would seem that Nederland should play this style for 32 minutes against PNG.  ;)

[quote name="speechless" post="958513" timestamp="1296570778"] mentality offensively goes back to normal in OT because there are 4 more minutes to play so coaches play regular ball instead of holding the ball if there are 4 possessions in 1 minute then there are 16 possessions in 4 minutes which is quite a few more possessions for each team (hypothetically speaking) however the last minute of a game is quite different than the 3 minutes leading up to it decision making is different, shot selection is different and defensive and offensive strategy is different png kept the game close with a tight zone defense and in OT all liklihood nederland would have gone back to playing regular offensive basketball and trying to attack the png zone and taking shots in normal time increments think about it like this:  if png comes out and extends their defense (which is not their strength) then nederland has a much higher % chance of scoring so based on that if png comes out then they go from just having to stop nederland to possibly trying to stop nederland and then having to rush to score just to tie nederland again whereas if they sit back then they only have to complete one task and that is force a low% shot for nederland which they did [/quote]I understand what you are saying, but I simply disagree.  Let me break it down. Do we all agree that there is a 50-50 chance of either team winning if it goes into overtime? OK, Then if you limit Nederland to a 40% chance, then you've only got a 30% chance of winning (50% of the remaining 60% = 30%). Limit Nederland to a 30% chance, then you've only got a 35% chance of winning (50% of the remaining 70= 35). Limit Nederland to a 20% chance, then you've only got a 40% chance of winning (50% of the remaining 80 = 40). But if you extend your zone, you force the opportunity to get the traveling call (that Nash is nit-picking over) or anything else.  Keep it to a 90 second game and I think PNG's chances are at the highest.  I don't like the Overtime option, because everyone on here recognizes that Nederland has the better team. And nobody has added into the mix that Nederland also had the momentum coming back from a game-long deficit, if I remember correctly.

[quote name="stevenash" post="958510" timestamp="1296570417"] The "post just above yours" is exactly, unequivocally what I meant.  It suggests the post made just before yours (sequentially speaking).  I don't have the capability of handicapping these occurrences (and I honestly dont think you have sufficient research/data to do so either) please tell me what the chances were that the PNG player could have rebounded the ball and been fouled during the rebound or just after the rebound.  What were the chances that the Ned player might have traveled when he attempted the game ending shot. [/quote]OK, Steve, your going to nit-pick this until you I fold, eh.  The chances of a Nederland player traveling go up if you cover him for 90 seconds.  Better chance for PNG.  Get it? I am going with rough odds, and I stated that, because when your dealing with future events, that's the only way you can do it.  And, believe it or not, every coach does this to some degree.

[quote name="stevenash" post="958500" timestamp="1296569660"] Maybe you should look at the post just above yours.  Also, please explain how, if PNG had gotten the rebound of the missed shot that they had ZERO percent chance to win game.  If your percentages are correct, that means that time expired as the missed shot was launched.  Was that the case? [/quote]If PNG had gotten the missed shot, they would have been faced with making an 86' shot with 1 or 2 seconds to go.  OK, maybe get a time out and run a 1 second play to heave the ball up court and win.  I'll give you a 5% chance of that, and this is being generous. PNG now has a 30% chance of winning.  Woo-hoo!!!!!  ;) And you may want to point out the "post just above mine".  There are numerous posts on this thread.

[quote name="speechless" post="958485" timestamp="1296569189"] you are not thinking percentages in that situation you are thinking what gives my team the best chance to win/extend the game[/quote] This is an interesting comment, because "the best chance" is based off of percentages, whether one knows this or not. [quote author=speechless link=topic=79456.msg958485#msg958485 date=1296569189]png coach knew that things had gone their way just to be in a tie so if you told him before the game you have to get one stop to force OT with them will you take it?  he says yes if they come out and play and Nederland scores which they would have because png plays zone and that is what kept them in the game then png would have had to go man and ned would have scored fairly easily due to the spread game so png says we are gonna sit in our zone and make you make a contested outside shot to win the game instead of creating a HIGHER % for a HIGHER % shot for you see png forced nederland to take the lowest % shot possible to win the game it was a breakdown on the rebound that got them beat png thought was lets keep this a one possession game with one minute to go instead of having 4 or 5 more possessions png knew that the fewer possession ned had the better off they were because png not good enough to go basket for basket with ned over the course of time then you get to overtime and ned will likely come back and play regular ball and not hold it because there is 4 more minutes to play when you are the lesser team and you know your personnel is not as good as the other team you dont ever take a chance to create extra possessions for that team in a tight game at the end [/quote]But how many more "extra possessions" are there in overtime then in 90 seconds.  By your own reasoning, the PNG coach is giving himself a 0% chance of winning in regulation and a "lesser chance" of winning in overtime because PNG's personnel are not as good as the other team. I agree that more possesions gives  Nederland the advantage, but there are more possession in overtime than there are in 90 seconds, on average.

[quote name="stevenash" post="958466" timestamp="1296567878"] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=79456.msg958462#msg958462 date=1296567146] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=79456.msg958438#msg958438 date=1296543143] I  will leave you to your own conclusions and same for me.  I just dont believe such things are as easily qunantified as you do.  And I would be willing to bet that Persohn and Prudhomme coming and going were not the result of any "odds considerations" by the coaching staff.  My point regarding the blackjack analogy was, in that situation,  both choices have low odds for a favorable return and you can't "stack" the odds to be in your favor. [/quote]No, simply that Coach Sutherland was going with the odds that Persohn and Prudhomme were less likely to get an offensive foul and more likely to get a defensive foul.  Hence, they were in on offense and out on defense.  If there was a 50-50 chance of any team winning in overtime (which no one has refuted) than there should be a relatively close 50-50 chance of any time winning with 90 seconds to go (that's  probably about 3 or 4 possessions each team).  I like those odds, even if its 60-40 since Nederland has the ball, WAY BETTER than [u][b]the 0% chance of PNG winning in regulation because they allowed Nederland to stall[/b][/u]. [/quote] I wasnt there and have not seen the film  If I understand you correctly, you are saying now that PNG had no chance of winning.  A little earlier, I had understood you to say that they had a 25% of winning.  Sometimes the odds are not good either way.  If the Celtics are beating the Lakers by one with 10 seconds left in the game and the Lakers miss a shot which is rebounded by Ray Allen, what do the Lakers do to stack the  odds in their favor or even make them 50-50? [/quote]Read the underlined point one more time.  PNG left themselves with [b][u]0% chance to win in regulation[/u][/b].  They had to force an overtime in order to even have a chance of winning. The Celtic / Lakers scenario is entirely different.  The Lakers [u][b]are forced to only one option.  Foul[/b][/u].  The PNG coach was not relegated to a whisper and a prayer.  He simply went with the path that limited his chances to 25% overall.

[quote name="stevenash" post="958438" timestamp="1296543143"] I  will leave you to your own conclusions and same for me.  I just dont believe such things are as easily qunantified as you do.  And I would be willing to bet that Persohn and Prudhomme coming and going were not the result of any "odds considerations" by the coaching staff.  My point regarding the blackjack analogy was, in that situation,  both choices have low odds for a favorable return and you can't "stack" the odds to be in your favor. [/quote]No, simply that Coach Sutherland was going with the odds that Persohn and Prudhomme were less likely to get an offensive foul and more likely to get a defensive foul.  Hence, they were in on offense and out on defense.  If there was a 50-50 chance of any team winning in overtime (which no one has refuted) than there should be a relatively close 50-50 chance of any time winning with 90 seconds to go (that's  probably about 3 or 4 possessions each team).  I like those odds, even if its 60-40 since Nederland has the ball, WAY BETTER than the 0% chance of PNG winning in regulation because they allowed Nederland to stall.

[quote name="ForeverADog" post="958264" timestamp="1296521780"] There are so many alternatives in these games you can't simply say that PNG had 25% chance to win. Its the end of a basketball game you can't put a percentage on it accurately. He did what he thought gave his team the best chance. Not my strategy but I'll take my chances with the ball [/quote]Well, look at the scenario I laid out.  I stated why I gave them a 25% chance of winning.  If my reasoning was wrong, then one can simply point out where I was wrong. Simply saying, "Your wrong" without explaining is for liberals to do.  ;)

[quote name="stevenash" post="958220" timestamp="1296515064"] If you are at the blackjack table and you draw a 16 and the dealer has a face card showing, and you have a bunch of money on the table, tell me what you are going to do and what the odds are that you will win.   The odds are that you will lose if you hold and the odds are also that you will lose if you take a card so you cant necessarily stack the odds in your favor. Therefore, after you go bust, it is quite easy for me to say you should have stayed with the two original cards.  Converselly, if you stand pat and the dealer winds up with 17,18,19,20, or 21, I can just as easily say that you made a dumb play by not taking a card. [/quote]Is there a point in there somewhere?  Let me ask you, do you really think that coaches ignore the odds when making calls during a game? For example, you may have noticed that Persohn and Prudhomme kept leaving the game against HF whenever there was a dead ball and HJ was going to be on defense.  But they went back into the game if there was a dead ball and HJ was going to be on offense. Did percentages have anything to do with this decision.  I mean, both guys are very good on defense.

[quote name="stevenash" post="958215" timestamp="1296514523"] Winning 25% of your games has no relevance to the last minute of a single game. [/quote]It does when you leave yourself a 25% chance of winning.  Faced with the same dilemma 4 games in a row (last 90 seconds let the other team go for a winning shot), you'll only win 1 out of 4 times on average. Those aren't good odds.

[quote name="stevenash" post="958049" timestamp="1296501402"] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=79482.msg958020#msg958020 date=1296499018] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=79482.msg957942#msg957942 date=1296491202] Wouldn't your wish actually be for a 4 round match up, thus implying HJ wins the second round thereby forcing the district playoff and then a region finals matchup? [/quote]Well, my biggest wish is that I win that Power-ball lottery.  Of course, it would help if I actually bought a ticket, eh?  ;) But actually, if they had a play-off, then yes Round 4.  Of course there's always the chance that Silsbee loses to HF after we beat them and there is no play-off. [/quote] Sure am glad to know you are dealing in likelihoods.  Since you handicapped the PNG-Nederland last shot circumstance, please go ahead and do the same for the scenario you just painted. [/quote]well....... what are the odds of pigs flying?  I've looked everywhere and can't find it.  ;)

[quote name="speechless" post="957944" timestamp="1296491601"] right call by png coach when you are not the better team you take your chances on defending one shot as opposed to having to defend for multiple possessions he did the right thing forced the lowest percentage shot they could force and just didnt block out on the back side [/quote]This would have been a good move if PNG had the lead, but they didn't. They boxed themselves into a hole where they had a low chance of winning.  And how can you say they weren't the better team at that moment?  Didn't Nederland's big man foul out?  Its not "who has the best team", it's "who has the best 5 players on the court at that moment".

[quote name="stevenash" post="958047" timestamp="1296501322"] Read the post by speechless.  Trust me when I tell you he has more insight about those situations than any 5 people in this post collectively.  But, at the same time, I respect your right to disagree and have no reason to believe that my opinion is any more valid than yours.  As for the game of numbers ( which I happen to know plenty about) I would say that a percentage or percentile assignment might have different meanings..  If you bat 250, you are ok and if you bat over 300 you are pretty good.  If you shoot 30% in basketball, you arent that good.  If you don't hit the greens about 70% of the time in regulation [playing golf, you have little if any chance to win .  So equating percentages with "good"  fluctuates widely depending on what the circumstances are. [/quote]I'll read speechless' post again, and yes this is an opinion forum, so all is cool. But regarding percentages, its pure and simple.  When faced with two options, winning or losing, I like to stack the deck in my favor.  I don't feel that going into a scenario with a 25% chance of winning is a good idea.  Batting .250 may be average, but winning 25% of your games is poor.

[quote name="stevenash" post="957930" timestamp="1296490067"] [quote author=BMTSoulja1 link=topic=79456.msg957903#msg957903 date=1296487045] [quote author=Razor link=topic=79456.msg957900#msg957900 date=1296486674] I am sure in a rivalry like this, there are instances where both sides behave badly...I am not saying this is proper behavior but it is a bit "high and mighty" for PNG fans to come on here and complain about Nederland's kids when I can assure you that I have first hand seen some pretty sad behavior from PNG students at Nederland games as well...unfortunate by product of an intense rivalry...my point is, just don't come on here saying "Nederland's students did this and Nederland's students did that" when the same type of behavior happens on the other side as well. As for the guy who says playing it the way he did, Abel only gave PNG a 25% chance of winning?  I assume by this you felt that PNG had NO chance of winning in OT?  PNG played a great game and their kids should be commended...hard way to lose for sure, especially coming off of another buzzer beater with Central...Coach Abel is a great guy and in that situation you have to trust that a coach knows his team better than the average fan...it is so easy to judge after the fact...if PNG had won, everyone would be on here second guessing Coach English (inappropriately, I might add) and praising Abel as a hero...at the end of the day, it comes down to execution by the players and some times just the good old fashioned breaks. Again, as a Bulldog fan, I tip my hat to PNG for a well played game and a great effort although I was certainly happy with the outcome! [/quote]+ 2 for  you!  Excellent post. [/quote] Strongly agree [/quote]Just as strongly disagree.  ;) The numbers are against you for letting this happen.

[quote name="stevenash" post="957942" timestamp="1296491202"] Wouldn't your wish actually be for a 4 round match up, thus implying HJ wins the second round thereby forcing the district playoff and then a region finals matchup? [/quote]Well, my biggest wish is that I win that Power-ball lottery.  Of course, it would help if I actually bought a ticket, eh?  ;) But actually, if they had a play-off, then yes Round 4.  Of course there's always the chance that Silsbee loses to HF after we beat them and there is no play-off.

[quote name="86hawk" post="957894" timestamp="1296485570"] HJ by 2 in OT. [/quote]HJ will not win in overtime.  If the game goes into overtime, Silsbee will simply wear HJ out.

[quote name="Razor" post="957900" timestamp="1296486674"] [u]As for the guy who says playing it the way he did, Abel only gave PNG a 25% chance of winning?  I assume by this you felt that PNG had NO chance of winning in OT?  [/u]PNG played a great game and their kids should be commended...hard way to lose for sure, especially coming off of another buzzer beater with Central...Coach Abel is a great guy and in that situation you have to trust that a coach knows his team better than the average fan...it is so easy to judge after the fact...if PNG had won, everyone would be on here second guessing Coach English (inappropriately, I might add) and praising Abel as a hero...at the end of the day, it comes down to execution by the players and some times just the good old fashioned breaks. Again, as a Bulldog fan, I tip my hat to PNG for a well played game and a great effort although I was certainly happy with the outcome! [/quote]No, you didn't look at my post correctly if you think I gave anyone a 0% chance of winning in overtime. PNG had no chance of winning in regulation.  Given that Nederland has a 50-50 chance of making the last shot, than that gives Nederland a 50% chance of winning in regulation and PNG a 0% chance of winning in regulation.   Now, with the remaining 50% chance that the game goes into Overtime, if you assume that each time has a 50-50 chance of winning, then you only have PNG with a 25% chance of winning. In a game of numbers, those aren't good odds.  Therefore, in my opinion, bad call, coach.  But that doesn't mean the coach didn't coach a great game overall.  It sounds like PNG used the talent on their team to great advantage and almost beat a time that is far better than PNG is (at least on paper Nederland is better).  So the coach should be commended on his job that night.  That doesn't mean he batted 1000 for the night.  If I was coaching, I wouldn't reduce my team's chances of winning by letting Nederland take that last second shot.  You got a foul to give, foul Nederland with 3 or 4 seconds left, if possible.  Make them start over!!!!

Gus HAS to play within himself.  In Silsbee, Gus took it inside about 4 out of 5 trips down the court early in the 1st quarter.  He ended up paying for it later on when he was worn out.  There are too many weapons on the Hawks team for Gus to feel he has to do this. Luckily, he's also got his confidence back behind the 3-point arc!

That speaks a lot for Mr. Allen.  Some people respond well to adversity and some walk away. It looks like the coach knew what he was doing when he made these moves.

[quote name="stevenash" post="957613" timestamp="1296403628"] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=79456.msg957586#msg957586 date=1296396664] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=79456.msg957575#msg957575 date=1296390492] [quote author=pngpurple4ever link=topic=79456.msg957208#msg957208 date=1296316429] That was the most bone headed coaching decision I have ever seen. You have to go out and try to force a turnover, a bad shot, etc. Worst case is Ned. scores or shoots free throws. You still have plenty of time to score yourself. Letting Ned. get the last shot was plain STUPID!!!! [/quote] If the PNG coach was "smart enough" to have a considerable underdog "in the game" in the last minute/seconds, would it stand to reason he is smart enough to handle the closing seconds of the same game? [/quote]If the Nederland coach wants to run out the clock and take the last shot and the PNG coach wants Nederland to keep it  to the last shot, would it stand to reason that one of them could be wrong? [/quote] From my perspective. it stands to reason that those who coach for a living are likely to have better insight on what needs to be done than the fans do.  I can tell you, after watching highlight films, about every pass that should have not been thrown in the football game.  But, then again, I did not have several three hundred pound linemen charging at me while making my decisions which were not made after the fact.   I am also confident that we, as spectators, do not know all of the ingredients than went into the decision the coach made.  Furthermore, I maintain the coach apparently made many good decisions or the underdog would not have been in a postion to win the game.  If that is the  case, it would seem that second guessing only the last minute decision is slightly unfair. [/quote]Unfair maybe, but that's why they have Sports Opinion Forums.  Is ESPN unfair to have PTI or all the other sports shows that have opinions? But, back to the point that was raised.  [u][b]I don't understand where a coach willingly puts himself in a position where he settles for only about a 25% chance of winning[/b][/u].  It simply doesn't make sense, especially after he's done such a good job thus far in the game.

[quote name="stevenash" post="957575" timestamp="1296390492"] [quote author=pngpurple4ever link=topic=79456.msg957208#msg957208 date=1296316429] That was the most bone headed coaching decision I have ever seen. You have to go out and try to force a turnover, a bad shot, etc. Worst case is Ned. scores or shoots free throws. You still have plenty of time to score yourself. Letting Ned. get the last shot was plain STUPID!!!! [/quote] If the PNG coach was "smart enough" to have a considerable underdog "in the game" in the last minute/seconds, would it stand to reason he is smart enough to handle the closing seconds of the same game? [/quote]If the Nederland coach wants to run out the clock and take the last shot and the PNG coach wants Nederland to keep it  to the last shot, would it stand to reason that one of them could be wrong?

[quote name="AggiesAreWe" post="957574" timestamp="1296382293"] and this is a good thing? ::) I didn't realize your halftime show was suffering that bad, LAZEEK. ;D [/quote]Well..... "[i]Shadow Puppets Live[/i]" doesn't play well on radio. Perhaps someday it will, but the worlds just not ready yet.

[quote name="BMTSoulja1" post="957529" timestamp="1296362346"] When did I turn into an Indian hater?  I'm on YOUR side. I think the PN-G coach made the right decision.  Maybe you need to go back and read this thread again... [/quote]OK, I'm still confused. By stalling the ball, the WORST that Nederland could do was go into overtime  (Let's say a 50-50 chance of that happening).  In overtime, they have a 50-50 chance of winning. By allowing them to stall, the BEST that PNG could do was go into overtime (again 50-50).  In overtime, they have a 50-50 chance of winning. So, by allowing Nederland to dribble out the clock, PNG only gave themselves a 25% chance of winning!!!! How is that the smart decision for a team that is tied up with 90 seconds to play?!?!?

[quote name="ST413" post="957533" timestamp="1296363269"] [quote author=bmrm link=topic=79482.msg957502#msg957502 date=1296358287] [quote author=BADSANTA link=topic=79482.msg957268#msg957268 date=1296323350] Round 2.....Fight! Who you got and why? Both teams are at full strength for this game. [/quote] Silsbee may be at full strength but HJ is far from - Hawks missing Anderson & Carr.  [/quote] As far as this season is concerned the only player who has really played is Carr. Anderson would have been a big factor for HJ this year but unfortunately he was injured. I hate seeing a high school player miss his senior season to an injury. The Tiger's will be without one key sub as well in Busby.  He Is the only big post the Tigers have on the bench and has been playing well lately.  This one will be another great game.  My Tigers better come to play like they can or it could be a long night. [/quote]Yes, Will has been sorely missed on the court this year.  He's a good kid that showed a lot of heart on the football field.  He has a nice 15 foot jump shot that would have been very effective in this year's offense. But regarding your post, my biggest wish is that this is simply round 2 of a 3 round match-up!  In other words, "[i]See you in Hunstville, Bay-Bee![/i]"

[quote name="bullets13" post="957522" timestamp="1296361768"] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=79399.msg957499#msg957499 date=1296357907] [quote author=bullets13 link=topic=79399.msg957490#msg957490 date=1296357035] i'll agree with that.  when HF was setting up in the half court, and setting up in the half court D, they went about 10 minutes between the 1st and 2nd quarters where the only shot they got off at all was little dove's 3/4 length shot at the end of the 1st.  they were also getting trapped like crazy because they weren't looking to run off of rebounds. [/quote]I thought they started pressing when they were up 5-2 midway through the 1st.  I could be wrong, though. [/quote] well, dove said something about them running.  [/quote]Ahhh, I realize that I'm talking about defense and you (and Dove) are talking about offense. My bad. Speaking of which, how many teams are able to press on a missed shot?  I know of numerous teams that can full court press after a made shot, but it is rare to see a good full court press off a missed shot.  As you mentioned, that hurt HF the other night because they'd let the press set up rather than pushing the ball up the court before it could stop them. Good point again, Bullet and Dove.