HoopInsider_Cooper

GFDL model now edges to Galveston Bay

If I told you an answer, it would be a lie. I have no clue. Joe Domino (head of Entergy-Beaumont) said expect power outages up to 5 days. Schools? We will have those updates on TheExaminer.com and I will post them on here as well. Once Ike passes, I will create a school opening/closures thread.

Ike is going over a cool eddy and has dry air in him so no strengthening at the moment. Look for strengthening later this evening. Good ol' Texas dry air!!!!

We were on the left side (good) of Rita but got the eye stuff, which is nasty nasty. Remember, we are dirty with Ike so there will be tornado outbreaks. It's hard to guess right now but expect at least Cat 1 conditions: Winds 75+ Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricane Lili of 2002 made landfall on the Louisiana coast as a Category One hurricane. Hurricane Gaston of 2004 was a Category One hurricane that made landfall along the central South Carolina coast.

If you have a place to go, do it. If you stay, there will be no power for lord knows how many days. 1st, calm her down. This is not Armageddon. 2nd, if you have a place to go, do it.

I dont think rain is going to be the issue here guys...It's wind and storm surge..Remember, you will get winds out of the south so a Cat 2-3 bringing water with it from the south. There is concern in bridge city because it's so low-lying and has water all around it. Right now, Mobile (Alabama) is having flooding issues from Ike and they haven't received a drop of rain.

Cat 2

Cat 3 storm surge:

New GFS model....Freeport/Galveston

Local duty got passed off to me...LOL...I'm here for the longhaul so I'll try to answer everything under his supervision.

NHC 4am track: TIME TO GO [Hidden Content] IKE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME UNUSUAL STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS. DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS STILL NEAR 85 KT...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THE REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE LATTER VALUE...946 MB...WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 3/4 HURRICANE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS OBSERVED BY BUOYS AND SHIPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL INNER CORE WITH AN EYE JUST UNDER 10 N MI IN DIAMETER. THERE HAS BEEN A DOUBLE WIND MAXIMUM...ALTHOUGH HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE OUTER WIND BAND IS BEGINNING TO CONTRACT. OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR NEUTRAL ALONG THE PATH OF IKE AS IT WILL LIKELY TRAVERSE JUST TO THE NORTH OF A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES OVER THE WESTERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. IKE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. FIXES FROM THE CURRENT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION INDICATE THAT THE MOTION HAS TURNED BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...I.E. 295/8. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO TEXAS. DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL WEAKEN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND THIS WOULD CAUSE IKE TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW SOON AND HOW SHARP OF A TURN WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF OUR MOST RELIABLE TRACK FORECAST MODELS IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREFORE I HAVE MADE ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS BETWEEN THE LATEST HWRF RUN...WHICH IS TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN....WHICH IS TO THE RIGHT. IN THIS CASE IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DAMAGING WINDS EXTEND SO FAR FROM THE CENTER. THE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND FIELD OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT NECESSITATES AN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING A LITTLE FATHER NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

My gut tells me it won't take that Rita turn but this is close enough. I hope all are ready!

Yep....the next 2 runs are key...6:30 am then around noon and EURO @ 2pm...That will let you know where he's going.

Here's a tad better version: [Hidden Content]

LOL...what models? The only ones worth looking at are GFS, EURO, HWRF and GFDL... Remember, post links. Freeport is about 143 highway miles from beaumont.

Get some sleep guys...the new NHC track is @ 4am and when you click on this link (the 1st message) the new NHC image should appear but I will also post here as well.

Per my brother: some but not anything too nasty.

Ok guys... EURO - Ike goes due west heading for Corpus then is pulled due north west of Galveston, best guess Freeport area. Good news was it wasn't a shift over the triangle. Bad news was still way too close. Waiting for a few pro mets to look at it and I will edit with any new info if different.

Yeppers, sometimes i get it early....I'll post ASAP. Back away from the computer... ;D

Per Gary Stelly

No closing yet in OC but all their football games are now canned so their is an indication where they are going. I hope to have EURO soon...After that, NHC will post new track at 4 am then the important model runs come out at 6:30 am (GFDL, GFS, HWRF).

The stronger the slower but they tend to move quicker when moving in a straight line. EDIT: Relax guys...Everyone is entitled to their own opinion but please use common sense. We don't like disruption in our lives and this is about to become very stressful and disruptive.

Faster than the 7mph he was crawling earlier...He will pick up probably quicker once he straightens out. Slowed due to a weakness in the ridge over SE US...Now that it is filled in, he will hopefully push along quicker.

1am NHC intermediate advisory up: Ike moving WNW @ 9mph, maximum winds @ 100mph, pressure @ 946mb.

I think they are meeting @ 4:30 am again this morning, after the NHC big update. I will be up and posting updates...I have Examiner website duties tonight so I am on call till 6 a.m. I can't say either way. I am thinking they will.