OlDawg

What's actually comical? I haven't heard a peep about the Paris Climate Agreement, Greta Thornberg, or the dreaded Climate Change. Seems everyone is too busy scrambling for oil. The Paris Climate Agreement appears to be about as solid as this MOU between Iran & the U.S.

Israel has every right to be defiant. They’re not our puppet. They’re a sovereign state. Iran is merely trying to drive a wedge. They’ve been trying for decades. It’s the only way they can eliminate Israel—their goal. Our people need to be smarter, and recognize that. Bring Pompeo back if you need to as an advisor. He knows whats going on.

There are 4 different pipelines that can handle about 50% of the current loads through Hormuz as they’re built out right now. (Don’t quote me on the 50%. But, I think that’s close.) These can be expanded. But, they’ll still be easy targets for disruption in a volatile region, and the ME politics always makes a kink in usage/transport deals between the States & countries. They’re being used now, and are part of the reason oil hasn’t jumped as much as people thought. There was talk of rail between Saudi, Israel, and up north after the Abraham Accords. But, I don’t know how the relations are between Israel & Saudi right now after Gaza. I don’t think they’re great. Land bridges are already being used to a small extent by MSC (the shipping magnate). They could be expanded, and MSC & others are looking at that. I believe only 10% or so ships via land right now. Building anything between areas in this region is tough. So, I couldn’t give you a timeframe. But, since Iran has shown their hand, I’d expect any build to be quicker than in the past. Let’s say 2-3 years-ish per bridge for the ENC part of it. Bridges aren’t that difficult, and there are very talented people in that region as well. They’re not uneducated dummies like some think. Other water routes are pretty shallow and dangerous for the supertankers. The major benefactor is the Americas. Our routes are safe, easily insurable, and dependable without stressing over constant conflicts. The distance is a little longer. But, this can be scheduled around. Another benefit is that our light, sweet WTI is the cheapest product to refine. America, Venezuela, Canada, and other producers will be the big winners.

Issue the U.S. has--I may/may not have mentioned previously--is that most of our refineries are set up to process heavy, sour crude. We haven't made the investments to be able to process our own WTI. That should be a priority, and would be a good use of incentive funding for national security purposes. Just get us to at least a 60/40 spit.

lol All joking aside, I pulled out gulf shrimp and bacon for shrimp & grits this evening for supper.

Just as an FYI, Cushing isn’t part of SPR.

I'm saying the MOU isn't an agreement that's binding in any fashion. It's nothing more than a 'pinkie promise.'

Personal opinion is the MOU won't hold. If it does, I've seen multiple MOU's that were vastly different than final agreements. Iran will attempt to dither until after November elections. We'll see if the Administration allows this game to be played. Two months will allow global oil reserves to be replenished enough for other action to occur, and actually receive more buy in from global players, and the American public--if the Administration educates them better. This Administration's communication skills stink. They'll have to do much better on that front.

Once started, the ceasefire was a disastrous idea. This could have been done by now with a much different ending. Trump received VERY bad advice. But, the buck stops with him. He said he's the 'Boss.' He makes it a point to be the BMOC. He owns it.

Wrong. JCPOA didn't have snap inspections of any sites, or destruction of existing enriched nuclear material. In fact, it included terms that required giving notice to Iran about upcoming inspections, and even allowed them to self report enrichment. JCPOA was a big, fat nothingburger. It's yet to be seen what this will turn into.

You won’t find any argument from me. But, this was a forgone conclusion as soon as the ceasefire was called. It’s been written on the wall since.

I’m amazed at all the criticisms/kudos for an agreement that doesn’t yet exist…

You knew it would see-saw hard & fast. I can’t recall an IPO in a long time that didn’t lose 50% of its value in the first year. Many have come back strong and stayed strong. You didn’t mention E*TRADE. That makes a difference on fees. Still the same for tax purposes. SpaceX is so different than other firms, I see it as more of a trade stock versus an investment stock for the shorter term. Long play, I think it definitely has legs. But, the mere nature of its business is high risk. Too risky for my taste as I’m already living on savings and investments. I was also worried about it being so dependent on the government and whatever Administration was in at the time. When reading the prospectus, 20% of it’s business was with the Feds.

At this stage in my life, I'm not really a growth investor any more. I'm more of a value/income/dividend player. But, if I had another 20 years where I really wanted a good growth stock, and SPCX dipped down to $115-$120/share, it would definitely be on my buy list.

Definitely tone deaf.

Still to early to decide if this effort was a success or failure. That won't be known until the formal agreement is signed at least a couple months from now. If there really are snap inspections and full access by IAEA, and IAEA supervises dilution of current material, it could be deemed successful from the nuclear threat aspect. I also still say, the Strait--thus Iran--has lost it's bargaining power for the future. Supply chains will no longer rely so much on passage through the Strait for the bulk of their needs. This is an outcome that wasn't discussed as a goal. It's an unintended consequence. But, it's a definite positive for the U.S. The Administration lucked out, and backed into this one.

I’m not a ‘trust the process’ guy. We were both a little off based on current numbers. Looks like 75% have access to a defined plan of some type. The attachment breaks it down (latest data) by different categories, regions, etc. [Hidden Content]

Gains in the stock market benefit anyone contributing to a 401k. Over 80% of employees in the U.S. have access to an employer sponsored 401k. If they don’t contribute, they’re missing out on the best investment chance offered in America today. Especially if it’s employer matched of some amount/type. Those who say they can’t afford it don’t know that the tax savings on their regular paycheck almost negates their contribution in most cases. Many employees find their actual take home pay very close to the same whether they contribute or not because of the pre-tax aspect of 401k’s ‘lowering’ their taxable paycheck.

If I were a paranoid person, I'd begin to think someone was reading my posts. lol The Oil Business Is Shifting From Hormuz to Houston. The Iran War May Have Made It Permanent - National Security Journal

Lufkin, WB & PAM all have one historically tough opponent, and one opponent that's usually a little easier. Lufkin has their major rivalry game with the Lobos. La Porte has 2 quality opponents with their major rivalry game in the Border Battle, and then Ft. Bend Crawford. So, I'll have to go with La Porte right now. I think Ft. Bend Crawford is going to be a solid team again this year with their returning superstars on O. La Porte could easily start out 0-2. Breaking in some new players on the lines may take a few games.

Yep. Like I said previously, I'd expect Brent to hang around upper $70's for the foreseeable future. I don't envision going back into the $60's again. $70's are actually a good number that allows for a balance between fuel costs & margins that allow for maintenance and investments by the energy companies. I haven't heard of any major T/A's in a long time. Usually, that's a yearly, staggered process between refiners. T/A's are a critical function, and the refiners have to have the margins and capacities to enable the down times. In the past, we were around $80/bbl. But, efficiencies and fracking have enabled a lot lower cost structure need. This is a solid link to keep bookmarked for those interested. It doesn't give all the data I receive. But, it's pretty informative for the overview.

Let me consult Carnac.

IPO two days ago. Market cap now higher than Amazon, and it hasn't released a single fundamental to back up the share price. What could possibly go wrong? lol Gut tells me a whole lot of folks are going to be left holding the bag when institutions and hedge funds take massive profits before the little guys can get out. They're going to have to be disciplined enough to ride out the storm, and pray there's not a single launch issue.

Waffle House is the hurricane indicator. You know it’s really bad if Waffle House is closed. 😆