OlDawg

Massey is having issues this year as well. Some of the historical data they use is a lot different this year. Some traditional powers are changing. Not sure how much is due to transfers, and how much is just demographic change… Maybe, a lot of coaching changes as well. I kind of like the parity, and different teams stepping up.

Still La Porte. La Porte—geographically speaking—is pretty big. Even more so now that Shoreacres and La Porte agreed to merge Shoreacres with La Porte. The City of Shoreacres no longer exists. It’s all La Porte. Shoreacres was having financial issues. Plus, their flood insurance rates were astronomical. La Porte is classified as less flood prone because of infrastructure builds and support services. While our insurance isn’t cheap by any means, it’s a lot cheaper than surrounding Bay communities. La Porte already provided EMS and police services anyway, and the kids go to LPISD schools. Some feeder schools in Deer Park are actually La Porte schools as well. That’s why the kids get to choose when they get to higher grades. Some choose to go to DP. Others choose to stay at LP. Both high schools are “A” rated. But, LP has a lot more technical programs, and the kids can graduate with a free Associate’s degree.

La Porte was in district with the Pasadena teams. I’m sure the professional recruiters who recruit for a living appreciate your valuable insights on player evaluations. I’m not sure your wishful thinking is going to change Morgan’s mind. I don’t see PAM opening up much of anything other than a new wrinkle here or there with a play or two. PAM’s staff know exactly who they are. PAM—this year—is a strong running game, good special teams, great defense team. That’s y’all’s identity. Morgan’s not going to change a winning formula for one game—especially this one—because fans want to see more ‘flash.’ The only way I see a major change in the playbook in one week is if PAM falls behind by more than a score. Then, you may have trouble, and have to open up a little more. Anything else would be foolish, and Morgan is no fool.

You’d be lost then. Gringos is in La Porte. If you like Gringo’s, El-Toro is closer to the stadium, and is the same food. It’s the family’s original restaurant. Gringo’s, El-Toro, Johnny Tamales, and Jimmy Changas are all the same food & owned by the same family I went to school with at LP. They also own Burger Libre & Bullritos.

PAM’s typical point differential against common opponents is 18. LP’s is 13. Five points. I’m a fan of an attacking D. That’s why some LP folks were nervous about last year, and are nervous about this year’s team. We’re not used to DFW style football. Since we lost our DC to Shadow Creek, our D has been questionable at best. How much effect the loss has had, I can’t say for sure. I’m not involved with the program. But, the margins of victory aren’t far apart at all when you compare common opponents. They just come from different styles. Unless TO’s play a big role, and both teams play to average, this should be a one score game or less. If PAM doesn’t get any TO’s, your scoring average goes WAY down. PAM has been living off TO’s. LP hasn’t gotten many TO’s this year. (That’s part of the D issue.) So, if they don’t get any TO’s, it doesn’t affect their scoring average much at all. Yes. 4th round would be an accomplishment. As I’ve said, LP only has 3 or 4 starting Seniors between both the O & D. If the transfer portal doesn’t hit hard, next year would appear to be the next peak year for LP. LP’s been playing with a BU OL since game 1. Those players will be experienced next year. Plus, all the skill players would return except for the TE, and most of the D would return—with a year of experience and growth under their belt. If y’all are gonna try to make the series closer, this year is probably a better bet than next year. EDIT: I put the link to El Ranchero in the earlier post after you liked it if you want to check it out. I’d love to meet with y’all pregame as I haven’t seen some of y’all in years—from a past life when we all used to pregame together with some NS, Katy, and other fan bases. But, my better half requires 24/7/365 care now. So, I don’t get to go to games any more. I have to watch streams.

Gotcha

What do you mean? We razz each other on here. But, I thought things were going well. Didn’t y’all just pass a bond for a new stadium and all? I thought excitement would be big over there right now.

How do you explain only scoring 23 against GCM when RSS scored 28? How about BWB? It was only 7-0 very late until a tipped Bruin pass in the end zone changed momentum. 7 points? #4 in the State? Really? Randle will eat all our lunches & make us pay them for our lunchboxes as they leave.

If you’re coming, be safe and enjoy the stadium. If you come early and want some real pregame TexMex, hit up El Ranchero on Main St. I recommend the Tommy Tacos. I get the 3 taco plate. You can ask for charros with any meal instead of refried if you prefer them. They’re excellent. There’s extra parking in the back. [Hidden Content]

PAM fans— What’s going on over there? Y’all don’t have a Freshman team. LP had to find entirely new opponents this week for a game. LP’s two freshman squads are having to go to Tomas HS & Hightower to play this week. @Mr. Buddy Garrity @Austin1985 @2trill

The computers give the games the same weight. So, PAM’s game against Bellaire carries the same weight as LP’s game against Deer Park. That’s why it’s better to compare common opponents—especially when playing them back-to-back—so time isn’t as big an issue. I don’t think y’all want to get into a shootout. If the score starts getting into the 20’s for both teams, it doesn’t play to y’all’s advantage. For Massey to be correct, PAM would have to score twice their average, and LP would have to score less than half of their average. Strange things have happened in PAM/LP. But, that spread is probably more than a little off. I think PAM is gonna need TO’s to win. So far, they’ve been very opportunistic. LP has to take care of the ball.

2006, 2008, 2009. PAM's first ever win against La Porte was the 2011 playoff game. The Dawgs had also just beat PAM a month before when they won District again over y'all and North Shore. You were lucky to catch LP after they just came out of a brawl with Katy. La Porte still leads the overall series 8-6. La Porte leads the series against all Port Arthur teams 20-12. Don’t feel bad. Y’all even have Lufkin rooting for you. Maybe, between the 2 of y’all, you can find an offense. 😜 (LP’s still trying to find the D they lost a couple years ago…)

PAM vs LP playoff history: La Porte 56 PAM 27 La Porte 56 PAM 28 La Porte 42 PAM 21 La Porte 6 PAM 34 La Porte has outscored PAM 160-110 in their PO history. Keep holding onto that one win. 😁

The better comparison would be: PAM 33 ppg - 4 papg = differential of 29 ppg LP 52 ppg - 35 papg = differential of 17 ppg Basically, the game is as we all know. LP's O that's averaging 52 ppg vs PAM's D that's giving up 4 ppg. If you believe PAM can hold LP 20-30 points below their average, and still score their average of 33 against LP, you roll with PAM, and you're looking at a one score game. If you believe LP can hold PAM to their average of 33 or less, and only have to score 65% of their own average, you're looking at a one score game, and you roll with LP. PAM has only scored their average of 33 or above in one game at home against Ball. They scored 55. They scored 23 & 21 respectively in their other two contests. LP has scored 59, 52, and 45 for their average of 52 ppg. If you threw out—as an aberration—the highest scoring game from PAM & LP, PAM would average 22 ppg. LP would still average 49 ppg. PAM’s point differential would drop to 18. LP’s point differential would be 13. (The above numbers are from actual, common district opponents the two teams have played in consecutive weeks with LP playing them all first. PAM had 2 home games and 1 away game. La Porte had 2 away games and 1 home game. Obviously, they are just numbers, and don’t account for emotions of high school ball players, venues, etc.) I'm a big fan of an aggressive D. I love PAM's D. But, I also love LP's O & special teams. If I had my personal preference, I'd prefer the D. But, that's not what LP has this year. For many years prior to LaReau, LP was more of an offensive based team. They were still playing Stratford, Aldine, and the like (when only one school went to the PO's) for the right to go to the Semi's. So, it's not totally unheard of at LP--or unsuccessful--to have a greater emphasis on O. Just different to a lot of folks who weren't around then. Anyway, there’s an analytical breakdown of the match-up using real numbers.

I’m curious to see how LP handles the pressure of a big game. They have to take care of the ball. If they do, I’m not sure PAM’s O can keep up. People don’t realize that the Dawgs only have 3 or 4 Seniors starting combined between the O & D. Skill players- Wells (QB)- Jr. Simon (RB) - Jr. Smith (WR) - Jr. Dieudonne (RB) - Soph. Wallace (WR) - Fr. Wallace already has 6 D1 offers as a Frosh. So, double Smith (22 D1 offers) at your own risk. Of course, Simon still has his 28 D1 offers as well. Reynolds (TE) is the lone Senior. He’s committed to Pitt with a full ride.

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Both teams will focus on stopping the respective #21's. If they both do that, what are the other options for each offense? This will be key. If the Dawgs have some of their OL coming back off injury where they can sub throughout the game and stay fresh, it will be a big help against PAM's attacking D. LP hasn't had the same OL lineup since game 1. On the positive side, it's provided a lot of flexibility and experience. One advantage I see that LP has, is they can play this game multiple ways. If they choose to focus on the power run game with Simon (4 Star RB) & Dieudonne, they are capable of doing that, and running clock at a 3-4 ypc clip. If they decide to use the passing game more, they have Reynolds (D1 commit TE), Smith (4 Star WR), Wallace (D1 prospect WR), and Simon & Dieudonne out of the backfield. This will be the first team where PAM will actually have to cover the entire field, and not be able to double or crash. If they do, someone will be open, or a lane will be there. In 3 district games--with a total BU OL, Simon has carried for 545 yards at a 7.3 ypc average. BWB was the first game he's carried over 20 times. LP spreads the rushing load more this year since people key on Simon. Wells passed for 4 TD's against BWB with a 78% completion rate, and is averaging over 185 ypg through the air. He's accounted for 12 TD's (9 passing, 3 rushing) with no INT's on the year. As far as Special Teams, KO's are rarely returned against LP as they are 90-95% touchbacks. PAM has a large advantage in D scoring. But, the common opponent spreads between the teams are not much different. PAM scores less. But, gives up less. LP scores more. But, gives up more. I said way back in the summer that if you put PAM's D with LP's O and ST's, you could book a trip to Arlington. LP would probably be okay with a higher scoring game. PAM would probably prefer a game in the 20's. Field position will be key for both teams. TO's and penalties will be key as always. I expect the computers to favor PAM by a pretty wide margin. But, algorithms can't account for this rivalry. Something unexpected will happen in this game. It usually does.

I feel it every morning.

I thought you were a little late putting this up. 😜 Did you realize this year will be the 20th anniversary of our first meeting? LP leads the series 8-6, and 3-1 in the PO’s.

Looking at schedules and records, I jumped the gun on being able to really nail down probable PO teams. The best I can do is say that--if PAM wins at LP--they should have a PO spot locked up as they could finish no worse than 5-3. As others with knowledge have mentioned, PAM vs. LP has historically been a very hard game to pick. LP leads the overall series 8-6, and 3-1 in the PO's. Out of the remaining games, I'd say that BU has the toughest remaining schedule followed by NC, and then RSS. All 3 still have to play PAM & LP. BU has to play at LP. Even Ball isn't totally eliminated if they run the table. There will probably be at least one logjam. It's entirely possible--if I'm looking at it right--that 4 teams could all finish with identical district records. If so, I have no clue how a 4-way tiebreak would work. Not sure if I've ever seen one, and I'm in my mid 60's...🤔

Looking at how the two teams have played common opponents in back-to-back weeks, the spreads aren’t much different. But, I’m thinking it’s going to come down to who controls the pace/tempo the best. This year, PAM would probably prefer a clock control, lower scoring game. This year, LP would probably prefer a higher scoring game where PAM has to play catch-up. I believe the Dawgs are getting some folks back from injury. Not all, because at least one OL I know of is out for the year. Has been since game 1 I think. Computers will probably pick PAM bigly. I will pick LP.

La Porte has won a lot of games through the decades with a strong running game, good special teams play, and defense. You guys know that better than many. Our situations are somewhat reversed this year in Bizarro World. But—like y’all knew the O would be the weaker part of the team this year—LP knew the D would be ours. You just play the hand you’re dealt, and keep working on the rest, and hope to improve. One thing about LP since Berneathy’s been back, LP has—generally—slowly improved as the season has progressed. He schedules tough tests to learn. Not necessarily win. Last year’s PO collapse was an outlier. That was an epic collapse in the second half and an embarrassment. But—to give Weiss credit—their passing attack hit directly on LP’s weakness. Once they got on a roll with momentum, they rode it. Talented club.

PAM's Special Teams provided that win almost as much as the D IMHO. They constantly gave PAM great field position, and made BWB work the field. Those hidden yards added up. Bruins had issues on special teams. A definite difference.

Young man is definitely a track star with speed to burn.

Without the INT, and Richard's long TD the next play, this may have been a different ballgame. PAM was able to pin their ears back and apply pressure knowing BWB would need to pass. This game was much closer than 21-7. The Bruins actually controlled the LOS for much of the game.