OlDawg

Waffle House is the hurricane indicator. You know it’s really bad if Waffle House is closed. 😆

To me, one of the best things to happen out of this—besides no nuclear weapons for Iran if that actually gets done—is the realignment of energy across the globe. The Strait won’t be allowed to have as much impact in the future. Producers will find other outlets. Plus, the U.S. has been established as a reliable energy source without the headaches of the Middle East. We should now become one of—if not the—dominant energy producer/s in the world. Our supply lines are safe. Insurers will take note. Length of travel will not be as big an impediment if regularly scheduled shipments are undertaken by clients. This should bode well for energy investments, manufacturing, engineering, crafts and skills, and related high-paying jobs. Not to mention a boon to our resurgent steel industry.

Nope. Even if allowed—which the stock purchase contract may not allow in this case—you’d be selling short term. Meaning, you’d pay capital gains tax at your ‘normal’ tax rate. I’m assuming somewhere in the 20% effective tax rate range. Probably higher if you’re single with no dependents, and a decent banking job. That doesn’t count your buying fees. I don’t know your situation enough to know if you’d incur AMT. But, you’d take a loss. You need to sit on it and ride for at least one year to get it treated as a long-term capital gain, and get the lowest tax rate. Sorry to burst your bubble. You still bought a good, long-term investment. Just be prepared for a bumpy ride for a year or two until the first few reports come out, and serious investors can get a better handle on the numbers. The Starlink portion of the business is the profit-making side. Not the rockets. Right now, many are investing in the hype & Musk himself. If Musk were to suddenly not be in the picture, would you have bought the stock? I doubt if many investors would… That’s a scary proposition if you actually wanted to purchase more than just a few shares. The institutional buyers can dump a lot quicker than you can.

Even if not a soccer fan, the U.S. play on Friday was uplifting. Reading comments from foreign tourists about America is definitely a ‘feel-good’ mentality. The most poignant news take I read from a World Cup fan/tourist was something close to “If you follow the news, you hate America. If you travel around America, you love Americans.” The MOU with Iran is a positive, even though the deal isn’t finalized, and verification is paramount. The final deal may be tougher than the conflict itself. We’ll see. But, I sense a more upbeat feeling this morning. I ran to the store real quick for some milk before all the rain really hit hard. People seemed a lot more positive, and were smiling and talkative.

A week in the Middle East is an eternity. Let's be hopeful. But, not giddy. The Devil will be in the details. Those won't be finalized for another 60 days at minimum. You can rest assured Iran will delay as long as they're allowed, and still probably say they cant retrieve nuclear material because "it's buried." Iran has promised they weren't enriching for the last 40+ years. But, we know that was a lie.

I don't like using absolutes because they're typically wrong. But, I don't see oil going back down to pre-conflict levels again in the near--or ever--future. The climate change disaster hoax has been proven to be just that, by the UN Climate Committee of all groups, and the critical nature of oil has been shown to the entire world. Futures are showing a range in the high 70's long-term, and no lower. Every $10/bbl basically means $.25/gal for gasoline at the pump. Going by this, you can expect a settled gasoline range in the $3.20-$3.50 range in most States for the foreseeable future--AFTER a few months--as the currently loaded supplies reach the world's refineries. At this same time, countries will still be bidding against each other to refill their strategic reserves. So, the price won't drop like a rock. But, we should see less than $4.00 for the most part everywhere. A definite improvement.

Can smell 'em comin' a mile away. lol

Fail This guy also appears to be a real tool.

My bet would be that many--if not most--of the workers who became 'stock millionaires' overnight have no clue what happens if they decide to cash out within a year. Can anyone spell Capital Gains and/or AMT to the max? Elon would show how good of a boss he really was if he were to offer financial planning services as part of his employee bennies. THAT would really show his character. On a sidenote, I'd be curious how many of the employees who became stock millionaires are still willing to vote for AOC or Harris?

I think I’ll increase my holdings in P&G (Rolaids) and trade some of my Merck for Pfizer (Xanax). I should see a good bump for the next year or two.

Elizabeth Warren is having a coronary.

Sure am glad Core measurement strips out food prices because El Nino years are heck on food price inflation, and this is expected to be one of the worst El Nino years on record. The energy situation won't be sorted out for at least 6 months to a year, and food prices may be in jeopardy as well. The Fed isn't going to cut rates which means the economy won't get a boost (except maybe from AI), and the Fed may want a higher inflation level anyway as it helps with the debt. This is more than likely what Trump was referring to with his comment about inflation that people didn't think through what he was meaning, and he didn't explain. I think I'll stick to my personal thoughts on possible sticky inflation instead of listening to a political hack for my financial advice. [Hidden Content]

Good Luck! You bought at a multiple of 150. Theoretically, it will take you over a century to break even. I like Musk's creativity and marketing. I like his pure drive. I wouldn't bet against him. I just can't see paying that kind of multiple for an unprofitable company. Definitely not what I'd consider 'buying low.' I'll just take the small sliver that will be allocated in some of my funds, and hope it's successful.

Personal belief is that—similar to ALL Administrations—POTUS receives briefing highlights, and no single person can have knowledge of everything. I would bet he’s aware of the general status. But, I doubt he’s aware of what it will take to replenish, and the details.

Why? Updates are good. I saw many stations around here at $3.29 yesterday. I'm just pointing out the bigger picture. We'll pay the price down the road. SPR will have to be refilled with our tax dollars at some point. With payment on our debt now at over $130 Billion/mo. as of May--up from $80 Billion--I'm not sure where all this money is going to come from... No way I see the Fed raising interest rates with that debt payment, which means sticky inflation for a while. We may well be in an era of 4% inflation being 'normal.' Hope not. But, we may be there. Beginning to wonder if it might be a good time to look at I Bonds again. They're already at a decent 4.26% until October. Safe money for 6 months.

The Strategic Oil Reserve is now down to 243 MM barrels. This is the lowest level since 1982. The SPR is supposed to be an insurance policy, It's not meant to be used for price controls, or election politics. For context, the U.S. consumes about 20MM barrels/day. Basically, our 30 day insurance policy is now down to 10. Refilling SPR to capacity at the highest fill rate of 785,000 BBLs/day means it would take until at least 2031 to refill if it were being filled at maximum rates--which is next to impossible given the age and condition of the infrastructure.

Yeah... I don't see much of the summary happening--especially not the withdrawal of troops from the region. Nuclear ambitions weren't even mentioned. Someone's still not on the same page, the propaganda machine is still working overtime, or both.

U.S. National Debt numbers - June 2026: Relative to one year ago, total gross national debt is $2.99 trillion higher; relative to five years ago, it is $10.94 trillion higher. Assuming the average daily rate of growth over the past three years continues, the U.S. will reach $40 trillion by approximately September 23, 2026. At that rate, an increase of another trillion dollars would be reached in approximately 141 days. [Hidden Content] Debt Update.html

I said ‘credible mentions.’ 😝

Where did this become ‘stealing Iranian oil?’ I read where the U.S. had assisted vessels loaded with about 100 MM barrels through the Strait. I read no credible mentions of it being Iranian oil, or ‘stolen.’

Guess I should say, my son—after 13 years as the Nuke power Chief on the USS Ronald Reagan—got his Nuclear Engineering degree. Funny thing is, he actually works for TI in Dallas as one of the technical engineers that build and maintain their ultra pure semiconductor wafer machines. His Navy clean room, real world engineering experience made all the difference. Texas Instruments likes to hire Navy Nuclear Power vets for this position, and they pay them very well. Hopefully, he’s got a pretty solid job future. He’s been there going on 6 years I think, and really seems to like it.

Off of TexasForever’s initial topic. But, good discussion. Grew up on the farm. THAT was work! lol I also initially went to college on a scholly, became disillusioned, and joined the Navy. I’ve spoken about some of that experience. When I got out, I was hired on at a local petrochemical as a ‘B’ operator partly because of being a vet, was encouraged to go back to school while working, and got an AAS in Engineering Design. From there, I got my Mechanical and went to work contract at multiple firms. Got my PMP, and led projects for years. Got tired of working 80’s for straight pay, went back to school for my BSBM, and was asked to join Sales. I finished up as lead Downstream BD for Mustang/Wood Group, Fluor, Jacobs and a couple smaller outfits before calling it quits to take care of family. Better 1/2 was an Aggie ChemE, and son is a Nuclear Engineer.

Lamar is—comparatively—very affordable, close to industry, and has a good track record from my understanding. I assume most of the US grads stay fairly local. There’s a good network for referrals. Baddog and I are discussing a time decades before your attendance. Were there many international students in the Engineering program when you attended? Curious about it since the immigration system has been tightened up. Incidentally, I always liked hiring ET's. I also liked hiring ex-fitters. Both brought more 'common-sense engineering/design' to the table than many other new engineering grads. Maybe, because I was ex-operations before my degrees, and could see more of the value. I just never ran across many--or any--resumes from Lamar. So, I always presumed they stayed more at the direct client level in the Golden Triangle. Glad to hear there are still others who aren't just going for Liberal Arts degrees. We need them, and all crafts, skills, and trades.

I believe that was the situation. I remember hearing LU had a special program for them to do just that. Not sure how it worked with visas and such.