OlDawg

I'm saying the MOU isn't an agreement that's binding in any fashion. It's nothing more than a 'pinkie promise.'

Personal opinion is the MOU won't hold. If it does, I've seen multiple MOU's that were vastly different than final agreements. Iran will attempt to dither until after November elections. We'll see if the Administration allows this game to be played. Two months will allow global oil reserves to be replenished enough for other action to occur, and actually receive more buy in from global players, and the American public--if the Administration educates them better. This Administration's communication skills stink. They'll have to do much better on that front.

Once started, the ceasefire was a disastrous idea. This could have been done by now with a much different ending. Trump received VERY bad advice. But, the buck stops with him. He said he's the 'Boss.' He makes it a point to be the BMOC. He owns it.

Wrong. JCPOA didn't have snap inspections of any sites, or destruction of existing enriched nuclear material. In fact, it included terms that required giving notice to Iran about upcoming inspections, and even allowed them to self report enrichment. JCPOA was a big, fat nothingburger. It's yet to be seen what this will turn into.

You won’t find any argument from me. But, this was a forgone conclusion as soon as the ceasefire was called. It’s been written on the wall since.

I’m amazed at all the criticisms/kudos for an agreement that doesn’t yet exist…

You knew it would see-saw hard & fast. I can’t recall an IPO in a long time that didn’t lose 50% of its value in the first year. Many have come back strong and stayed strong. You didn’t mention E*TRADE. That makes a difference on fees. Still the same for tax purposes. SpaceX is so different than other firms, I see it as more of a trade stock versus an investment stock for the shorter term. Long play, I think it definitely has legs. But, the mere nature of its business is high risk. Too risky for my taste as I’m already living on savings and investments. I was also worried about it being so dependent on the government and whatever Administration was in at the time. When reading the prospectus, 20% of it’s business was with the Feds.

At this stage in my life, I'm not really a growth investor any more. I'm more of a value/income/dividend player. But, if I had another 20 years where I really wanted a good growth stock, and SPCX dipped down to $115-$120/share, it would definitely be on my buy list.

Definitely tone deaf.

Still to early to decide if this effort was a success or failure. That won't be known until the formal agreement is signed at least a couple months from now. If there really are snap inspections and full access by IAEA, and IAEA supervises dilution of current material, it could be deemed successful from the nuclear threat aspect. I also still say, the Strait--thus Iran--has lost it's bargaining power for the future. Supply chains will no longer rely so much on passage through the Strait for the bulk of their needs. This is an outcome that wasn't discussed as a goal. It's an unintended consequence. But, it's a definite positive for the U.S. The Administration lucked out, and backed into this one.

I’m not a ‘trust the process’ guy. We were both a little off based on current numbers. Looks like 75% have access to a defined plan of some type. The attachment breaks it down (latest data) by different categories, regions, etc. [Hidden Content]

Gains in the stock market benefit anyone contributing to a 401k. Over 80% of employees in the U.S. have access to an employer sponsored 401k. If they don’t contribute, they’re missing out on the best investment chance offered in America today. Especially if it’s employer matched of some amount/type. Those who say they can’t afford it don’t know that the tax savings on their regular paycheck almost negates their contribution in most cases. Many employees find their actual take home pay very close to the same whether they contribute or not because of the pre-tax aspect of 401k’s ‘lowering’ their taxable paycheck.

If I were a paranoid person, I'd begin to think someone was reading my posts. lol The Oil Business Is Shifting From Hormuz to Houston. The Iran War May Have Made It Permanent - National Security Journal

Lufkin, WB & PAM all have one historically tough opponent, and one opponent that's usually a little easier. Lufkin has their major rivalry game with the Lobos. La Porte has 2 quality opponents with their major rivalry game in the Border Battle, and then Ft. Bend Crawford. So, I'll have to go with La Porte right now. I think Ft. Bend Crawford is going to be a solid team again this year with their returning superstars on O. La Porte could easily start out 0-2. Breaking in some new players on the lines may take a few games.

Yep. Like I said previously, I'd expect Brent to hang around upper $70's for the foreseeable future. I don't envision going back into the $60's again. $70's are actually a good number that allows for a balance between fuel costs & margins that allow for maintenance and investments by the energy companies. I haven't heard of any major T/A's in a long time. Usually, that's a yearly, staggered process between refiners. T/A's are a critical function, and the refiners have to have the margins and capacities to enable the down times. In the past, we were around $80/bbl. But, efficiencies and fracking have enabled a lot lower cost structure need. This is a solid link to keep bookmarked for those interested. It doesn't give all the data I receive. But, it's pretty informative for the overview.

Let me consult Carnac.

IPO two days ago. Market cap now higher than Amazon, and it hasn't released a single fundamental to back up the share price. What could possibly go wrong? lol Gut tells me a whole lot of folks are going to be left holding the bag when institutions and hedge funds take massive profits before the little guys can get out. They're going to have to be disciplined enough to ride out the storm, and pray there's not a single launch issue.

Waffle House is the hurricane indicator. You know it’s really bad if Waffle House is closed. 😆

To me, one of the best things to happen out of this—besides no nuclear weapons for Iran if that actually gets done—is the realignment of energy across the globe. The Strait won’t be allowed to have as much impact in the future. Producers will find other outlets. Plus, the U.S. has been established as a reliable energy source without the headaches of the Middle East. We should now become one of—if not the—dominant energy producer/s in the world. Our supply lines are safe. Insurers will take note. Length of travel will not be as big an impediment if regularly scheduled shipments are undertaken by clients. This should bode well for energy investments, manufacturing, engineering, crafts and skills, and related high-paying jobs. Not to mention a boon to our resurgent steel industry.

Nope. Even if allowed—which the stock purchase contract may not allow in this case—you’d be selling short term. Meaning, you’d pay capital gains tax at your ‘normal’ tax rate. I’m assuming somewhere in the 20% effective tax rate range. Probably higher if you’re single with no dependents, and a decent banking job. That doesn’t count your buying fees. I don’t know your situation enough to know if you’d incur AMT. But, you’d take a loss. You need to sit on it and ride for at least one year to get it treated as a long-term capital gain, and get the lowest tax rate. Sorry to burst your bubble. You still bought a good, long-term investment. Just be prepared for a bumpy ride for a year or two until the first few reports come out, and serious investors can get a better handle on the numbers. The Starlink portion of the business is the profit-making side. Not the rockets. Right now, many are investing in the hype & Musk himself. If Musk were to suddenly not be in the picture, would you have bought the stock? I doubt if many investors would… That’s a scary proposition if you actually wanted to purchase more than just a few shares. The institutional buyers can dump a lot quicker than you can.

Even if not a soccer fan, the U.S. play on Friday was uplifting. Reading comments from foreign tourists about America is definitely a ‘feel-good’ mentality. The most poignant news take I read from a World Cup fan/tourist was something close to “If you follow the news, you hate America. If you travel around America, you love Americans.” The MOU with Iran is a positive, even though the deal isn’t finalized, and verification is paramount. The final deal may be tougher than the conflict itself. We’ll see. But, I sense a more upbeat feeling this morning. I ran to the store real quick for some milk before all the rain really hit hard. People seemed a lot more positive, and were smiling and talkative.

A week in the Middle East is an eternity. Let's be hopeful. But, not giddy. The Devil will be in the details. Those won't be finalized for another 60 days at minimum. You can rest assured Iran will delay as long as they're allowed, and still probably say they cant retrieve nuclear material because "it's buried." Iran has promised they weren't enriching for the last 40+ years. But, we know that was a lie.

I don't like using absolutes because they're typically wrong. But, I don't see oil going back down to pre-conflict levels again in the near--or ever--future. The climate change disaster hoax has been proven to be just that, by the UN Climate Committee of all groups, and the critical nature of oil has been shown to the entire world. Futures are showing a range in the high 70's long-term, and no lower. Every $10/bbl basically means $.25/gal for gasoline at the pump. Going by this, you can expect a settled gasoline range in the $3.20-$3.50 range in most States for the foreseeable future--AFTER a few months--as the currently loaded supplies reach the world's refineries. At this same time, countries will still be bidding against each other to refill their strategic reserves. So, the price won't drop like a rock. But, we should see less than $4.00 for the most part everywhere. A definite improvement.

Can smell 'em comin' a mile away. lol