The way I see it, there are six teams that are in play for the four spots. I believe 5 wins will get you in.
Crosby is 3-0 with Caney Creek, Dayton, Splendora, Humble, and New Caney left. Finish no worse than 6-2
New Caney is 4-0 with Humble, Barbers Hill, Porter, and Crosby left. Finish no worse than 5-3.
Porter is 2-1 with Dayton, Splendora, Humble, NC and BH left. Two left that should be for sure wins. Porter will need to win at least one from the Dayton, NC, or BH games to get 5 wins.
Barbers Hill is 2-2 with Splendora, Humble, NC and Porter Left. Two left that should be for sure wins. BH will need to beat either Porter or NC to get 5 wins.
Dayton is 2-2 with Porter, Crosby, KPark, and Caney Creek left. One left that should be a for sure win. Dayton will need to win two games between Porter, Crosby, and Kpark to get to 5 wins.
KPark is 1-3 with Caney Creek, Dayton, Splendora, and Humble left. Three left that should be for sure wins. If Kpark beats Dayton they should get to 5 wins.
Given this and the teams wins the games they are supposed too then Dayton will have the harder schedule. Crosby will be in for sure and it appears NC is also. Kpark, Porter, and BH only need to win one against the contenders. My gut feeling is Kpark and Porter advance.
If 22 5A plays out like I think it will the matchups will be. Still a lot left to be determined and all of the seedings are still up in the air with my below predictions.
Crosby vs Vidor
NC vs PNG
Kpark vs Memorial
Porter vs Nederland.