Cougar14.2

FB Marshall was only 1,309 on the snapshot in 2020. They were at 1,327 in 2014 but below 1,300 students in both 2016 and 2018. The school really hasn’t grown since it’s been opened. I see them eventually getting caught by the 4A-D1 cap. At schools like FB Marshall who’s enrolled vs who’s there on a given day is a lot larger than it is at schools like Barbers Hill. I did read an article where it said FB ISD accelerated a plan for building another high school and re-zoning kids to Marshall and Willowridge to relieve crowding at Ridge Point so that may be why FB Marshall has a larger enrollment this year?

Baytown Lee opted up with 1,802 last realignment and finished 2nd in 9-5A-D1 which is the local 5A-D1 district for SETX. They should’ve been in 12-5A-D2 which is the other local 5A district for SETX but were made to play with the two other Goose Creek CISD schools which were D1 and actually ended up being the better for it. Usually your opt-ups are in multi-school districts and I can’t think of any other ones around here?

Just looked at Stepp’s DCTF video blog and decided to look at the app for whatever reason, I couldn’t help but to notice the #10 by Crosby’s name🤔 So you can go to the finals the previous year and not be ranked the following preseason but you can lose two games and be ranked six games later? If I didn’t know any better I might mistake that for respect. *Vidor fans, take note

Really no need for a Crosby thread this week, or for that matter next week. As long as Crosby can squeak by Santa Fe we will play from the pole position in the district no matter what happens at Nederland next week. Prior to the season starting I said Crosby would be better next year than they will be this year. Main reason I said that is because of the talent in the classes coming up the next few years. The juniors like Myles and Womack will be the centerpieces for next year’s squad but if you’re a Crosby fan you should be excited to see the future on the field Friday night. Some of Crosby’s starters will not play and as such you’re going to see a bunch of sophomores and even freshman on the field for homecoming this Friday. List of underclassmen who will be playing Friday night(I think I’m missing at least one more sophomore and possibly another freshman): Offense Kade Eudy(#13) - QB(10) Levi Fontenot (#12) - RB(10) Wesley Yarborough(?) - RB(9) Levi Langley(#60) - OT(10) *May be missing a sophomore offensive lineman here? Defense Tyler LaRive(#25) - LB(10) Jonah Griffen(#27) - LB(10) Copelin Windfont(#42) - LB(9) Brett Wright(#1) - DB(10) Joel(Jojo) Peredes - DB(10) I counted twelve of these kids during my pre-season research which is why I’m pretty sure I’m missing some? These are just the ones I know for sure off the top of my head who will be seeing extended minutes Friday night. There are no kids on the list strictly for size and athletic ability either, besides the two freshman everybody on the list has already produced on varsity this year in their giving reps.

I don't think FB ISD overall numbers are declining. We played Ridge Point in the 5A-D2 playoffs just six years ago and now they're showing an enrollment of over 3,000 kids. The reason you don't see the exploding growth in the district overall is because a good portion of the eastern part of their district butted up to west Houston serves lower income residents like the kids zoned to Marshall and Willowridge, which aren't growing and actually shrinking like you mentioned. All the growth is on the more rural west side of Fort Bend County in Richmond, Rosenberg and Fulshear. Fort Bend ISD itself is just kind of maxed out space-wise.

The entire 59 corridor north of the beltway all the way to Cleveland is growing like that except for Splendora. New Caney had one school in 2010 but next year will have three 5As. Matter of fact pretty much every major thoroughfare coming off the north side of the beltway has growth like that. Other districts just open more schools, Cleveland ISD has chosen not to so far but could probably really use one on the north side of town.

12-5A-D2 stats though 8 games per the district statistician: DISTRICT 12-5A Division II (District Overall) School W-L-T Pct W-L-T Pct PF PA Crosby 5-0-0 1.000 6-2-0 0.750 384 224 Texas City 4-1-0 0.800 7-1-0 0.875 280 108 Nederland 3-2-0 0.600 6-2-0 0.750 236 168 Port Neches-Groves 3-2-0 0.600 5-3-0 0.625 263 283 Mont Belvieu Barbers Hill 3-2-0 0.600 4-4-0 0.500 345 280 Dayton 1-4-0 0.200 2-6-0 0.250 217 280 Humble Kingwood Park 1-4-0 0.200 2-6-0 0.250 198 321 Santa Fe 0-5-0 0.000 0-8-0 0.000 30 344 TEAM OFFENSE GM RUSHING PASSING TOTAL AVG Mont Belvieu Barbers Hill 8 2027 2088 4115 514.38 Crosby 8 1793 1707 3500 437.50 Port Neches-Groves 8 1526 1659 3185 398.13 Texas City 8 1782 1141 2923 365.38 Dayton 8 979 1853 2832 354.00 Nederland 8 1264 1363 2627 328.38 Humble Kingwood Park 8 1097 1230 2327 290.88 Santa Fe 8 617 595 1212 151.50 TEAM DEFENSE GM RUSHING PASSING TOTAL AVG Texas City 8 597 855 1452 181.50 Nederland 8 1053 1308 2361 295.13 Dayton 8 1616 1165 2781 347.63 Crosby 8 1016 1768 2784 348.00 Port Neches-Groves 8 1280 1576 2856 357.00 Santa Fe 8 1634 1306 2940 367.50 Mont Belvieu Barbers Hill 8 1100 1961 3061 382.63 Humble Kingwood Park 8 2135 1631 3766 470.75

Those were the projections. The actual 5A-D1 ceiling is 2,211 and the floor is 1,920 with Houston Waltrip being the largest D2 school at 1,919. Taking into consideration the new schools and the natural growth in the metro areas I think the 5A-D2 cutoff will be somewhere around 1,980 before potential opt-ups which may move the number another 20-25 kids and be right around your 2,003 number.

Like BH fan said, it's a trap game for them. BH comes in knowing they should roll but if they turn it over a time or two early I can see them tightening up Dayton making a game out of it. The kids from Dayton will be looking to ruin BH's season which is the next thing to a playoff spot for them. Again, BH should roll but sometime that's exactly why it doesn't happen.

NM, Elam said it’s only a 14 point cap. BH gets jobbed and finishes 4th in the same scenario now.

I don’t think point differential counts against teams that aren’t tied? If TC beat both PNG and BH they would have three district losses. If Crosby beats Ned they’ll also have three district losses. Only the BH, Ned and PNG point differentials against each other would count. If 21 points is the cap then Ned would be -11, BH would be +7 and PNG would be +4. Crosby would finish 1st, TC 2nd, BH would finish 3rd and PNG 4th.

That’s pretty wild when you look at it that way. We said we wanted tougher district play though. There is still a scenario where TC beats both PNG and BH and PNG still gets in but yeah, this is basically a play-in for PNG. Let’s see how they perform in front of the home crowd in a very winnable game even though they’ll be at a personnel disadvantage. Opportunity to play 12 games vs 10.

TC plays defense and defense “travels”. Their offense isn’t that good but just like every other team in the district outside of Crosby, PNG probably isn’t going to score much more than 7 meaningful points on them. On the offensive side of things PNG’s defense is so porous that I don’t think TC will have much trouble grinding out 35+ points on them.

Because I think Texas High is better than Montgomery. 2nd place will get Texas High in the area round, 3rd will get Montgomery.

Agreed, we haven’t covered anything over the middle or that 8 yard our route off play-action the whole season. PAM was also having success against us with it but went away from it and BH never tried it. There were were several more plays to be made over the middle and probably a couple of TDs but to someone’s point earlier the PNG qb play isn’t what is has been in past years. I’ll say this though. PNG has significantly less talent than Dayton, yet BF still has them right in the thick of things.

Y’all don’t. If TC wins out they are second place. BH also needs TC to beat PNG so y’all aren’t in a 5-2 tie with them which would go to PNG. Basically y’all need TC to beat PNG and then y’all beat TC the last game of the season to secure 2nd. 3rd place will be the easier draw for what it’s worth though.

District play would be tougher but getting Galena Park, Madison and Houston Sterling in the first round is a lot easier than Hightower, Manvel and Angleton. Especially when you can get a Cedar Park in round two. Crosby may get FB Willowridge and Marshall the first two rounds of the playoffs.

To his point though, snapshot is next Friday. Nobody is currently enrolled at West Fork so if they count the enrollment without accounting for the kids that won’t be there next year then they’ll probably be moving to 6A. It looks like the year Shadow Creek opened they accounted for that at Manvel and put them in 5A.

Kind of hard for me to get a read on Aledo this year. They’re still killing people but just not the usual Aledo maulings. I do agree Williams is a little easier back to deal with than the ones recently and I’m not really as high on y’all’s qb as recruiters seem to be but I think Aledo’s defense is what will win them a title this year anyway, not their offense. Lovejoy is the only team I see testing y’all and I doubt your defense has a performance against them like they did last year.

It really has nothing to do with red or blue but two things. First, the person most instrumental in helping secure refining permits is your US representative which has been a republican for the Beaumont area since 1995. Second, my company is expanding its Beaumont refinery so what ever needed to take place at the city happened also. The issue is that there is a lot more automation and more contractors in the refineries now. That leads to a need for less permanent resources(residents) and creates a more transient workforce(guys living in travel trailers in these RV parks). That transient workforce usually doesn’t bring their kids and companies are figuring out how to operate with less and less so there’s not some huge need for employees at these refineries even when they’re expanded. These big refineries now are operating at about a quarter of the permanent personnel they used to 40 years ago. People are trickling from the smaller towns to the larger metro areas to take advantage of the job market in this places. That’s why you see contraction in SETX, not because some union guys are locked out right now.

Craziest stat from the night to me is that Crosby scored 10tds but only had seven third downs. Considering how much the backups played they had to be pretty efficient too. We also had more tds than third downs against Kingwood Park.

To answer this question for Crosby I would say the jury is still out. The season wasn’t really going to be about is competing for a district championship, it was going to be about if we could beat FB Marshall again. Thankfully the team health has held up and we’re on track for that. Very good job by Crosby’s staff getting the inexperienced starters we had at the beginning of the season up to speed quickly. Two teams I predicted would make some strides were Dayton and BU. Feels like Dayton is headed in the right direction, you see what TC did from last year to this one. No reason Dayton can’t do the same. BU still seems lost though, may need to let the basketball coach coach the football team too? I think the one school that has outdone even all the most hallucinogenic predictions is Vidor though. If the Pirates can get to 12+ wins Matthees may be looking at DCTF coach of the year honors.

Like I was telling the PNG fans who were pointing to the stats among common opponents, there’s a difference in how they were accumulated. PNG scored on the second play from scrimmage, then Crosby scored 42 unanswered and the game was over half way though the second quarter. Even on PNG’s second td drive close to the end of the first half it was a backup corner who dropped the int two plays earlier. Most of those passing yards are a result of PNG down by 40 trying to air it out against the backups. Most of their rushing yards came from their backup rb against our backup defenders. Their starter probably had 15 carries for 30 yards.

With two games left in the season for most of us it’s interesting to see what your team’s outlook is versus what you predicted they would do before the season started. What was/is the reasons for your team’s performance; COVID, injuries, coaching, personnel or just plain luck? Also, with realignment upon us do you feel like your team is trending in the right direction?

Some stats from the game: PNG - 366 total yards on 64 plays. 15/33 passing with 3tds and 2int. 30 carries for 107 yards and 1td. 16 first downs and 10-18 on third down. 2 turnovers and 2 penalties for 15 yards. *PNG didn’t have individual stats. Crosby - 724 yards on 59 plays. Myles was 10/15 for 237 yards and 4tds, he also had 11 carries for 148 yards and 3tds on the ground. Eudy was 2/2 for 78 yards and 1td. As a teams Crosby rushed for 409 yards on 42 carries. Womack had 6 catches for 152 and 3tds. Roberson had 1 catch for 75 yards and 1td. Kirkwood had 1 catch for 48 yards and 1td. *Shout out to the clean up crew, a.k.a the sophomores and freshmen that get to come in a finish off the blowouts. Most of them are still too small and slow for us to depend on them outside of relief situations but they way they’ve improved over the last five games from Dayton to PNG is pretty impressive. Code Red has some ball players coming folks, like, some serious ones.