KFDM COOP

Yes a High will move it more W/NW but the high is weak. 5 feet of water in BC would be possible.

[Hidden Content]

Final?

You have to have 250 posts for it to show up i think.

Maybe District!! At least we'll have a few weeks to clean up unlike Rita was right at District.

:'( :'( :'( :'(

Hopefully some tomorrow..

Nothing on Orange yet.

Bump Whats the chances of this thing moving closer to us Coop?? Good as any! To close as it is now. :'(

Channel 6 told me there would probably be a Mandatory Evac at 6AM..

:'( Sorry Hopefully we'll get through this stupid Hurricane.

Bump

Cancelled!!

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008 THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. A DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN WINDS OF 97 KT...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE ADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS. THE LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT MISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE OTHER HAND...RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE MAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY. NEVERTHELESS...ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS...WHICH ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE...I SEE NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS. ALL GUIDANCE TURNS IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED LANDFALL. THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS. IT IS TO BE EXPECTED THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 24.5N 86.1W 85 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 87.4W 95 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 25.6N 89.3W 105 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 26.2N 91.5W 110 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 94.0W 115 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 90 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

Voluntary evacuation set for 6 a.m. Debby Schamber The Orange Leader A hurricane watch was issued Wednesday by the National Hurricane Center which stretches from Cameron, La. to Padre Island. However, officials predict Hurricane Ike to make landfall about 5 a.m. near Port Lavaca as a Category 4 hurricane. Residents of the area could see a storm surge of up to 30 feet. Orange County officials called for a voluntary evacuation for 6 a.m. Thursday for the county. “Orange County citizens who decide to leave on their own are asked to travel the recommended evacuation routes,†a press release said. “The National Weather Service advises that we can anticipate tropical storm force winds on Friday and Category 1 hurricane force winds on Saturday.†For more information residents are urged to see www.setinfo.org and www.co.orange.tx.us. After making landfall the storm is expected to move along the coast in a northwesterly pattern. Orange County Emergency Management officials are continuing to monitor the hurricane. Based on the current track and predictions provided by the NWS, there are no planned evacuations for the region. “The deadline is (Thursday) morning to order an evacuation,†Carl Thibodeaux, Orange County Judge/Regional Commander, said early Wednesday evening. “All we can do now is sit and wait.†Thibodeaux added there are still some special needs evacuees who still have not returned form the Hurricane Gustav evacuation because they are too ill to travel. If an evacuation is ordered, about 84,000 Orange County residents and more 250,000 Jefferson County residents could be filling up the roadways as they try to escape the wrath of Ike. As of press time Tuesday the storm was traveling at 8 mph, but it is expected to accelerate to 14 mph before it slows to 11 mph as it reaches the coastline, according to Jim Sweeney, forecaster for the National Weather Service. Residents of Orange County could see the effects of the hurricane as soon as 9 a.m. Friday with tropical storm force winds reaching up to 40 mph. They are expected to increase as the day progresses to 58 mph, Sweeney said. Additionally, since the hurricane will make landfall near the time of high tide at 3:41 a.m. there is a possibility of along the saltwater waterways there will be up to 8 1/2 feet of water in some areas of Orange County, he added. Some areas especially prone to the effects of the high tide are near the Sabine River and Adams Bayou. Residents who live in the flood prone area south of Interstate 10 are advised to expect rising water in the Sabine River and its tributaries. The city of Orange will provide sandbags to people who reside with the city limits. They will be available from 7 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. Thursday and 7 a.m. until noon Friday at the Polk Street service center. A strong upper level ridge is keeping Ike away from Orange County. “Without it the storm would be coming directly here,†Sweeney said. But, he added, “Unfortunately, we are looking for a turn beginning at 1 p.m. Friday to a more northwesterly path.†On Wednesday, President Bush announced an emergency declaration for the state of Texas and ordered federal aid to supplement state and local response efforts due to the emergency conditions resulting from Hurricane Ike beginning on September 7, 2008, and continuing. The President's action authorizes the Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), to coordinate all disaster relief efforts which have the purpose of alleviating the hardship and suffering caused by the emergency on the local population, and to provide appropriate assistance for required emergency measures, authorized under Title V of the Stafford Act, to save lives, protect property and public health and safety, or to lessen or avert the threat of a catastrophe in the counties of Aransas, Brazoria, Brooks, Calhoun, Cameron, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Hardin, Harris, Hidalgo, Jackson, Jefferson, Jim Wells, Kenedy, Kleberg, Liberty, Matagorda, Nueces, Orange, Refugio, San Patricio, Victoria, Wharton, and Willacy, according to the Harris County Homeland Security & Emergency Management.

You bet!

Start driving now they could.

Well they need to bring their Butts up the coast!

For Coop to make this statement means more to me than anything that I have seen about this situation. I'm sure he put a lot of thought in this comment before it was posted. I have heard from someone that says that they do not have the resources to get the 211 people out. I think he was referring about Galveston. Coop, were you referring to Galveston? Nope.

The state has sunk a lot of resources into Corpus Christi, and now they may be out of the woods. Galveston really might get hammered. They should have started clearing off the island today EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!!!!

All depends on when it decides to go WNW, problem is it will turn north eventually.