KFDM COOP

40% or so i would say. We'll know by late Wednesday.

Glad their on top of it.

[Hidden Content]

At Waller

Haven't heard on Schools yet. The European Model has done well with IKE so far.

The track. It will be interesting to see how much more North the track shifts.

8) I just listened to him.

Interesting indeed!

Our thinking right now is at the very least will see strong Tropical Storm/Cat 1. Hurricane conditons here by Friday Night and especially Saturday.

Have to go to at least the carthage/Tyler area.

Only moving 11 MPH right now.

Difference this time is we're going to be on the bad side of the Storm. This is a huge Hurricane. Winds in Florida today were 50-60 mph and they are 300+ miles away from it.

They'll bounce back!

The cloud mass would almost fill up the gulf if the hurricane were in the center of the gulf. Right now huricane force winds extend out around 100 miles from the center. That is a pretty large area. For example Miami, FL has recorded 50 mph winds today. There over 300 miles from the storm.

Freeport as a Cat 3. We would see 70-90 winds here with rain. The size of the storm is huge!

Nope. This is going to be close and it's a huge storm!

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 22.9N 83.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.1W 70 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.3N 86.6W 90 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 24.9N 88.4W 100 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 25.3N 90.6W 105 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 95.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 14/1800Z 33.6N 98.0W 30 KT...INLAND

To close!

Hurricane Center shifted their track a touch north. Their tracks will be Slowly coming up the Coast again tomorrow.

That's not from Ike. Pressure falls in the afternoon alot.

Haven't heard yet. I would say Thursday.

The European model above is a good model.

Euro model S of Freeport!!! To close folks!!

I can't wait until Winter!!!