Rez

8 hours ago, Separation Scientist said:

Holdren was probably my all time favorite Eagle. I just loved the way that kid played. One of the few QB's who left more bruises on an opponents defense than they left on him, lol.  

Holdren was really good. He was unstoppable against PNG in 2021, if I’m thinking of the right kid. 

1 minute ago, BBfan061 said:

And he hasn’t really had crazy numbers… He is averaging like 60 yards rushing a game and has 6 TDs I believe 

Yeah - have you seen his film? It’s almost eery how he just glides through the defense, only juking a tiny bit. 

11 minutes ago, 1970 said:

The LC QB scrambled quite a bit, with more than several times just barely getting away, including once in the end zone that probably was an un-called touchback or maybe grounding. There was also some blown coverage.  PNG's LBs will need to be quicker than they've been so far, and hopefully they will be.   But what turned out to be the difference was the blocked field goal. 

I'm curious why LC isn't ranked ahead of some of the other top 10 teams; did they lose a lot of starters from last season? 

I’ve wondered the same thing. I’d say it’s twofold. First, LC might be seen as unproven. For the last two seasons they’ve run up the score throughout the regular season only to lose in the third round. The voters might simply not trust LC until convinced otherwise. Second, and related to my first point, the loss to Magnolia paired with them only having played a couple of private schools makes LC a question mark. We know they lost handily to a good team, but their big wins over private schools don’t tell us much about how good they are. 

Rigdon has been crazy to watch. I don’t know if anyone will slow him down this season. 

2 hours ago, spidersal said:

Hopefully they can beat Dayton and Montgomery 

The question marks are is Nederland’s secondary going to improve and is the passing game going to improve The OL is just not good enough to only have a running game The other question would be is the punter going to be able to catch a snap and IMO Dayton and Montgomery will both be better than Silsbee

I’ve watched all three Nederland games. They’re definitely still finding an identity. I think the O-line is the biggest problem, and blocking in general. A lot of that can be improved with reps. So far there seem to be only Tezino and Thomas who are real playmakers on offense, but running Thomas to the edge every play isn’t going to be that hard for defenses to diagnose. Qb strikes me as a great overall athlete and a good leader. Also, his decision making has improved under the new coach and this staff is better about calling pass plays that work for him.  Anything can happen - especially in Mid-County Madness - and I like Nederland’s chances against Dayton and Montgomery. Dayton seems about as good as Ned right now, and Montgomery’s opponents were 1-9 through three weeks. I haven’t checked if any of that changed in week 4. So, if the season goes how it looks right now with the top three being the top three in whatever order, and Nederland gets at least those four wins they’ll be in the playoffs. Rooting for ya’ll, except on October 25. 

I had us at 1-2. I figured Klein Oak and La Porte would give us a lot more trouble. As it is, happy to be 3-0. Hopefully it will be 4-0 come Saturday. 

I can’t find any full-game film on Lake Creek from this season. They return a lot of big names from last year, as does PNG. Like last year, it’s going to be two well-coached evenly matched teams. 

Three things I think we’ll need to win:

(1) Defensive improvements. The defense has been good, and our performance against La Porte had a lot of bright spots. LP showed our weaknesses, and we got good reps against a violent, tough offensive line blocking for fast RBs who don’t go down without sure tackling. LC will be a more balanced offense, and I’d argue more talented than La Porte. We need to get better at outside containment and bringing the runner down at first contact. A single missed tackle is a touchdown for LC. 

(2) Avoid turnovers. That’s important for any game, but last year, two of Lake Creek’s four touchdowns came off PNG fumbles.

(3) PNG must dominate time of possession. This was the most important part of us beating them last year. I went back through every play of last year’s game. Here’s some rough numbers: 
PNG held the ball 10-ish minutes longer than LC. (28 min vs 18 min). That’s nearly a full quarter more than LC. It gets more interesting: For every 2.5 minutes LC held the ball in a normal “true” drive, they scored one touchdown. [I didn’t count their scoop and score on a PNG fumble because it doesn’t tell us anything about how their offense moved the ball against our defense.]

So, that ten minutes extra we held the ball was HUGE for PNG’s win. It might have been the main reason we won.

In fact, our good defense actually didn’t stop them enough to slow their usual scoring rate much. They averaged around 56 points a game before they played us. If those ten extra minutes we held the ball had gone to LC, their offense was on a pace to score between three and four more TDs - or, between 48 and 55 points total.

Obviously, this is based only on one game, but neither team has changed much since then. 

What does this tell us? With equal T.O.P., PNG likely loses. Our best defense is LC not touching the ball. They have the advantage in a shootout - frankly, their receivers are faster than ours, their RB is better than ours, and their QB is more than good enough. If we have to win by matching them score for score, we lose control. Our defense is good, but not good enough for our offense to gift LC extra possessions. 

 

Titans by 50+

1 hour ago, Coach85 said:

Not taking anything from Silsbee because they are a good football team. But, Westbrook should be totally embarrassed. With all the talent that is in Beaumont they should be blowing lower classifications out. But because they can't hire the right coaches the talent moves on to other schools.  Westbrook needs to bring back the old New Orleans bag heads. The administration is a joke. Their AD could not even run a Junior League organization. Supposedly when they hire a new coach they are not allowed  to bring in their own people. They are told they keep the same staff that is already there.This should open some eyes as to how bad the BISD has become. They need to drain the swamp and get people in that can turn the whole thing around from academic level to the extracurricular activities. 

If it makes you feel any better, the superintendent just spent $76,000 on a motivational speaker.  

I think BH wins this one. 

Tt

46 minutes ago, navydawg31 said:

What’s the name? So I can keep a eye on him and watch him

Landen Williams-Callis. If he isn’t already, I expect a five star rating before it’s all over. I think he already has offers from pretty much everyone. 

I watched this on TexanLive. It was a good game. Neither team played good defense, and Klein Oak continued its streak of shooting itself so hard in the foot you could drill for oil where they stand. But it was a classic, “who has the ball last” game. Klein Oak played far better than they did against PNG. Almost makes the PnG victory look a little better. 

I haven’t done the precise math, but this is FBM’s worst loss since 2016, a 63-6 loss to Manvel. 

15 minutes ago, pine curtain said:

When is the last time PN-g lost at home? 

Game 1, 2022 season 

 

1 hour ago, Separation Scientist said:

I think there is "some". Not a lot, but some.  

It’s a matter of degree. If Team A beats Team C by 60, and Team B beats Team C by 14, we’ve learned that both Team A and Team B are better than Team C. But I don’t think it tells us much about how Team A will do against Team B. Last year is a good example - PNG beat Nederland by 28. Lake Creek beat Nederland by about 50. If we went only by the scores we’d be tempted to say LC had a better offense and defense than PNG. PNG beat LC by 3. If you won by at least more than two scores, I don’t care about how much more you scored after.

A stat I think IS transferable to the next game is something like 3rd and 4th down conversions, 3rd and 4th down stops, time of possession, and number of possessions. But I would want those to be counted over the whole season, not just against a common opponent. The things that lead to touchdowns or prevent opposing touchdowns that you can do consistently against a bunch of opponents get closer to telling us something about what you’ll do with the next opponent. In other words, I think the ability to get three yards when you absolutely need to against everyone you’ve played tells us more about your team than previous point spread. 

39 minutes ago, Eazy said:

So, Mag beat LC by 26, but they beat KO by 39.  So then that means that LC would beat KO by 13. But, since PNG already beat KO by 22, then PNG will therefore beat LC by 9?  Is the math right?  I got PNG by 9 then. 

 

There’s no transitive property in football. We can’t predict scores based on comparing who scored what against who. Matchups are what matters. There were a couple years (2014, 2015) where PNG beat a bad Goose Creek Memorial team 47-20 and 42-14. Nederland lost to GCM those years 56-55 and 18-14 (their only district loss in both years). Nederland beat PNG both years, despite PNG beating GCM by 17 and 28 points in those years. The point is, I don’t think we learn much, if anything, by LC losing to Magnolia and then Magnolia beating a team PNG beat. The only thing that matters is what can LC do on defense against PNG that specifically counters what PNG does, what can LC do on offense that PNG will struggle to counter, and how do both teams manage the game (play calling, clock management, etc). 

There’s about four games I was really confident on that blew up in my face 

It’s entirely situational - I don’t think either way adds an advantage in and of itself. 

Silsbee takes this.

5 minutes ago, OlDawg said:

Agree. A little worried about LP’s TO’s this year. Not usually a big issue. But, seems they’ve had about 3/game this year. Not good. Also, need those D players back. Didn’t know we were missing that many.

Y’all should be fine & I saw no injuries on PNG side. Always good news. Clean game. LP usually plays clean, and I assumed PNG would with a Joseph at the helm.

Hopefully, coaches have this set for next year also. Good game before district play.

It would be cool to help LP break in that new stadium 

Good game LP. I think both teams come away with a lot to work on. Exactly what you want from a preseason game. 

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