Rez

Indians Win

I'm similar -- If I'm in town during the playoffs and Nederland is still alive in the playoffs, I try to be at the games cheering for them.

A Pirate ship runs over a dog pound. Team managers have to spend the weekend cleaning fur off the Black Pearl. Bulldogs hold a 21-sprinkler salute at their field.

I think my original post has been misunderstood. I never said or implied that Nederland has been lucky. I just looked at what they have done against the opponents they have faced, and compared it to what Vidor has done. Nederland is a good team. No one has argued otherwise.

Don't need any analysis for that. The answer = a lot. It's also irrelevant to the Nederland-Vidor game.

Yeah -- I sort of got on a different thought train.

I never said the point averages in past games were going to determine who wins in the next game. You're right -- In the end, the only thing that matters is who wins the game. Until then, it doesn't hurt to look at different stats showing the different teams' strengths and weaknesses, particularly when it was a Nederland fan that brought it up. A Nederland fan said, "Look how many points we are scoring" (paraphrased) as evidence of how many points Nederland will put up against Vidor, and I offered some perspective as to why the data is skewed and areas where Vidor may not be as weak as their record looks. So, to the extent that the past performance is indicative of future performance, that "crap" does matter, and it may end up mattering so much that Nederland loses this week. Nederland is not invincible. Vidor has been close to HUGE wins this season. They just might pull one off this week. I certainly hope they do.

haha- No, someone is supposed to be doing homework, but is letting himself be distracted by football.

The Nederland offense isn't averaging 40 points a game. It is averaging 32 points per game, and the bulk of that is skewed by lopsided victories over two of the worst teams in the district (Dayton and Lee) and a 33-point performance against a bad Beaumont United team. Nederland's offense, if you take out Dayton, Lee, and Beaumont United (that is, if you look at Nederland's offensive performance against the teams on the schedule that are doing well) averages 22 points a game. I'm including WOS, Silsbee, BH, and Santa Fe -- These are teams that are in the mix in their districts. Tellingly, against potential playoff teams in our district, Nederland averages 24 points. They are not exactly running people over offensively. They are solid, and they are clearly the favorite in the district, but there are vulnerabilities that Vidor can take advantage of. Vidor is down, but Vidor's offense has been getting on the board. In games against Crosby, PNG, BH, and Santa Fe (all in the running for playoff spots) Vidor has averaged 28 points per game, which is more than Nederland's average against potential playoff teams. Even if we include Nederland's victories against far weaker teams and take the season average, Vidor's offense is putting up more points than Nederland's (34 vs 32). Further, I think we can all agree that Vidor's district run has so far been against tougher opponents than those faced by Nederland (PNG, Crosby, BH, and Santa Fe, as opposed to Lee, Dayton, BH, and Santa Fe). Against overall tougher competition, Vidor is scoring more. Against common opponents, Vidor is scoring more. Granted, Nederland won its games and Vidor lost them. My point is that Vidor is not a pushover and the Pirates will put points on the board. Nederland will have to bring it to keep that perfect record intact.

I have a soft spot for Vidor this year. I tend to root for them, but goodness -- This season has been tough, and they have been tough. They are a better team than their record. I'd almost like to see a playoff with every single team in the state (completely ridiculous, I know), just for the chance to get a real idea of how the non-playoff teams from various districts match up. Or, do a consolation playoff featuring the 5th place teams from every district. See who is the best of the rest. I think Vidor would do ok in most districts, this year. I'm not saying they would be world beaters, just that they might have more success.

I'm going to talk trash on behalf of Crosby: Crosby is the greatest football team in the world. Nay, the universe. BH is unworthy to touch the same grass as Crosby players. I demand that BH apologize for even accepting the opportunity to play against Crosby. The world will feel the wrath of Crosby, and it will be God's justice on the inferior and incapable BH. Jk, jk. All of that aside, I am fully confident that Crosby will get back to business against BH and win. Crosby is still an extremely dangerous team. Everyone knows that things could have gone differently against PNG. And it's hard to get your head in the game after a huge letdown loss the week before -- For all we know, Santa Fe would go differently for Crosby if they played again. I think Crosby will put things together against BH.

I like Wright's BBQ on 105

I agree with the "more evenly matched" position. Looking at it from the PNG perspective: In the old district, we had (give or take the year) Livingston, Lumberton, Baytown Lee, Goose Creek Memorial, and Ozen. These tended to be predictable wins, most years, for PNG. When LCM was in the district, we ALMOST always beat them. Livingston, Lumberton, and Ozen were barely big enough to even be in our district, and are now in the lower classification. Throw in Vidor being a win for PNG in the vast majority of our matchups, and we end up with most district games in the old district being relatively easy wins for PNG. Some years it was different. Livingston took us to the woodshed in 2011. Vidor got us in 2012. So I'm not saying every year was the same, or that these teams were pushovers. I'm just saying PNG tended to take care of business against most teams in our district, and the scores were often quite lopsided. Then we'd get to the playoffs get hit in the mouth. In recent years, the mostly respectable teams in our district were Central, Nederland, and PNG, and those teams were more or less guaranteed to make the playoffs. The two years Memorial was in the district were great years, in my opinion, because it increased the competition so much. We no longer had to wait until the playoffs to face playoff competition. Memorial made us better. Now the district has so much parity. It's a good thing. Yeah, PNG has had to play close games, and we've given up so many points. But the district isn't a cakewalk anymore. Instead of having four-to-five opponents being predictable wins for PNG, none of the games are. It makes it tough for teams to make the playoffs and that meat grinder will help us in the playoffs. Prediction: District 12-5a II will represent well in the playoffs. We're going to have some deep runs out of this district.

Yeah, that win against Santa Fe is looking better and better

Why would Dayton not try to get a play off with 19 seconds left in the 3rd and down 16? Are those coaches playing to win, or just to end the game? They aren't exactly sticking with PNG, but the game isn't quite out of reach.

That's tough. Rooting for ya'll. Though, maybe Santa Fe is just that good? They are going to be a tough out for PNG

Crosby comes out furious after losing a winnable heartbreaker last week. Crosby 42 Santa Fe 14

Re: 100+ teachers and/or coaches being laid off. This is why I never judge coaches for leaving schools for better opportunities. People have to worry about their own families and prospects. When the coaches and the schools negotiate, they do so at arm's length, and nothing is expected from either party beyond fulfillment of that contract. Schools (college and high schools) burn their employees all the time, either through mismanagement, or just plain stupidity. If a coach has a couple bad years, everyone is calling for their job. But we are often much more ready to condemn coaches when they choose go somewhere else, as if they have "let down the kids," or the school, or the community, etc. If a coach or a teacher thinks they have a better chance to succeed somewhere else, even if it is only because they think they can get more money, I say more power to them -- For all they know their school will be bankrupt next year.

haha that's cold

100% agree -- I hadn't ever thought of it, but let's just have a D as good as Nederland's. We have a really good offense. Our offense, year in and year out, can score on most teams in the state. Let's have a D like Nederland. This is one of the more insightful observations I've read on this site.

I think Crosby must have punted in their first series, because we scored first and they had the ball first. I'm not aware of PNG getting any interceptions or fumbles. Crosby's QB completed just about everything he let out of his hand. He is going to a ridiculously good QB, already is a really good QB. I think he is a sophomore, but I might be wrong. Our defense did enough to win (that is, slow them down a little bit), but we are going to have be much better. I think, in our defense (no pun intended), defenses across the state have gotten worse. Look at the Big 12, which is populated with hundreds of Texas players, and look at how bad the defenses have been over the last several years. Some of that is a function of how hard the spread is to cover for high school kids -- It requires a very technical, smart approach to defense. Some of that might be a function of where teams are choosing to put their best personnel. In any case, teams with good defenses are rare. Very rare. West Orange is the only team I can think of off the top of my head with a consistently good defense. PAM usually has a solid defense. Everyone else has a vulnerable defense. I don't know how to fix it, and I certainly wouldn't know how to coach it.

Dayton knocked us out in 2011 and in 2014. We finally beat them in 2015, by one point.

Crosby can beat Nederland. Nederland is not invincible. If I were a Nederland fan, I would worry about how they haven't really been tested in district yet. Crosby tends to play well against Nederland. Not saying it will be easy. The road to district championships goes through Nederland, most years.

Nothing but respect for Dayton. They knocked us out the playoffs in 2011 and 2014. I don't know what the series record is, but Dayton is scary, no matter what season it is and no matter what their record shows. PNG wins in a tough game against a team with nothing to lose. Let's hope both teams escape injury free.

I'm excited for this game. Both teams are better than the record shows.