texbuzz

Very few things in this world are either/or. Usually its a mixture or these things fall on a spectrum. But it does seem great coaches uncover great athletes. There are athletes everywhere. Are they motivated? Do they have the right mindset? Are the coaches putting kids in places that work the best? Do the coaches gameplan effectively? (way underrated) There is so much going on behind closed doors and at practices that we will never see that I find it hard to pin down this question. My answer would be "It's the coach, and a huge part of a good coach is finding and motivating talented athletes." On the pro level, who saw what Case Keenum has been able to do this year? (cue the rabid UH fan)

HAHAHAHA!!!!! *crickets from those PNG fans.

Crosby didn't sit anybody. Played the backup RB for the first series and he was effective. Craig never got loose and NC has the best shutdown corner in the district. Plays a lot of press man and can out-athlete any receiver on the field. He will lose some (not many) to tall receivers. Crosby has one tall receiver and he was on the trainers table early. But....Crosby was down 35 - 13 with 5 minutes to go in the second quarter. 4th and 2 on their own 48 yard line. Crosby punted. Read into that what you will.

I see some similar tackling from the Crosby defense. They will have streaks of good tackling but there seems to be some regression to grab-and-wait-for-help. My junior high son plays D-line. He is trying to sneak into a RB or backup RB position. I told him to just run right at the DB's, they won't tackle you and you will look like a stud. The teams that beat them (in JH mind you) had runners that just ran. No juking, stopping, hitches. Teams that would gladly take 7-11 yards a run and then break out for longer runs. I see too many HS ball carriers trying to out-athlete the defense. The ball carrier runs out of room, stops to make a juke or move, and get smacked from the side from the rest of the defense. I catch myself yelling at every game "JUST KEEP RUNNING!!"

after the New Caney game, I don't want to talk data. That....just sucked.

This is about gameplanning. If they can jump on a team early and keep their foot on the gas, they can out gun almost any offense. If they can get to Hutto, that will be the test.

The numbers, while not perfect, show Crosby facing a far easier schedule in 2013. I don’t like the rankings a lot either but it is a crappy algorithm for everybody so that flattens the outliers a bit. I am an emotional fan and I put too much stock in feel or opinion, I am trying to post on the data. Factoring in the Willis, New Caney, Porter, King, Barbers Hill teams.....the 2013 schedule was easier. But, and everybody here knows this as much as I, numbers may not lie but they certainly don’t predict the future. Every year in every division, there are teams with the numbers that go home early. And a team that will out perform their data. Hoping For Crosby.

The schedule was easier in 2013 but the team performed very well. Second round exit that year. Gross. 2013 Crosby Schedule Crosby Score Opponent Score Differential Maxpreps Rank Nederland 56 35 21 240 Willis 56 21 35 634 Barbers Hill 63 26 37 491 Dayton 33 27 6 334 Summer Creek 49 63 -14 166 New Caney 55 10 45 867 King 56 14 42 607 Kingwood Park 58 34 24 428 Humble 49 9 40 663 Porter 70 0 70 928 2013 Season Avg 55 24 31 536 Power # Based on Diff and OPP Strength 18

I addressed this elsewhere. Factoring in strength of opponent and point differential, the 2017 Crosby Football team is better than the 2014 Crosby Football Team that was one game away from a State Title game. The lower the number at the bottom the better. For reference, Manvel had a "7" a couple weeks ago. I need to refresh the numbers. 2017 Crosby Schedule Crosby Score Opponent Score Differential Maxpreps Rank Jasper 42 36 6 167 Barbers Hill 48 32 16 163 Porter 42 35 7 344 LCM 58 14 44 305 Kingwood Park 63 45 18 287 Caney Creek 57 17 40 732 Dayton 69 27 42 458 Splendora 38 20 18 599 Humble 59 20 39 671 New Caney 2017 Season Avg 53 27 26 414 Power # Based on Diff and OPP Strength 16 2014 Crosby Schedule Crosby Score Opponent Score Differential Final Maxpreps Rank Nederland 24 20 4 426 Angleton 38 20 18 145 Barbers Hill 30 7 23 363 Humble 17 10 7 422 Galena Park 62 10 52 851 Kingwood Park 24 14 10 287 Dayton 41 35 6 220 New Caney 24 0 24 491 Porter 39 13 26 747 C.E. King 21 28 -7 88 Team AVG 32 16 16 404 Power # Based on Diff and OPP Strength 25

missed the game, 21 with an arm or shoulder injury?

Padilla is putting that number at 1790 and Stepp has it at 1770. Padilla has been the default for a lot of posters. Wait and see at this point

I like you guys. don't get me wrong. It would be kinda cool if somebody would double check and make sure my email and name isn't visible from that link. Just curious. I don't need any more emails for "lengthening pills". I'm stocked up.

Snapshot Spreadsheet I used the projection divisional breakdowns for this. I probably spent stupid time doing this but if you want access to modify, just let me know. I didn't create sheets for the divisions.

Ok. I will update and highlight.

texasfootball.com data says 434. I scraped their data and I am adding the numbers noted in this thread. I will highlight the thread numbers. When there is a discrepancy, I will refer to the TF website (I think those are official). I should have a google sheet shortly.

BH has really started playing better.

PNG is going to walk right through that game regardless.

I bet he does such a great job because of all that sweet bank that moderating an internet forum $ends his way.

I spoke to somebody that should know. There was some questions that needed to be cleared up about some kids. "Need to make sure the number we provide is accurate." The person was not interested in explaining any further.

Crosby 8th Grade "A" Team - 40 Barbers Hill 8th "A" -14

I think the rankings could be improved. And according to the rankings that district is weak. Playoff wins are certainly the ultimate decider, in my opinion. What are you saving for? It's win or go home. You win, you are better. Period. Every other excuse and reason and cop out doesn't matter to me. Better teams advance. But wait until the playoffs.....watch these losing fans say "you won this game BUT the refs, injuries...whatever." All of it is just talk. Better teams advance. If my worthless power number is correct....Hutto should win the region (area..I can't remember what you call this group).

@baddog In many cars, the Driver side wiper hits the far left edge of the windshield where it meets the "A" pillar. The Passenger side stops in the middle of the windshield before returning to the lowered position. Total guess.

@biaplayer I don't "think" PAM is or isn't anything. This is just the data I have found. I didn't run the PAM numbers because they were not in the DII bracket of the Texasfootball.com playoff projections or I just didn't see it. My sincerest apologies. The projections are usually for subscribers and was available but now it is pulled down or behind a paywall. That being said...Ask and ye shall receive: 2017 PA Memorial Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Beaumont Central 35 6 29 370 Ozen 41 0 41 774 Nederland 13 7 6 303 Lumberton 31 19 12 536 Port Neches Groves 36 44 -8 51 Livingston 61 20 41 1055 Lee Vidor 2017 Season Avg 36 16 20 515 WORTHLESS POWER # 26 I called it a "Worthless Power #" because it is a backwards looking number and you never know what might happen. And MaxPreps ranks can be wonky. PAM played a very good PNG team to a -8 differential. And I think it was a competitive game. This number gives credit to that. PNG's higher rank and only losing by 8 points is given credit in the number. The fact is, PAM has a really weak schedule. PNG does too. But PNG is putting up 13 more points per game than PAM.

· This will be long. Long story short - If you take the point differential and divide it by the current MaxPreps rank you get a number. The Crosby number is better than I thought. So, for the whole season this year, we have heard about how bad the Crosby defense is playing. Allowing too many points, mistakes. They won't be able to make it far in the playoffs. Hell, I feel that way most times also. But they win. So....how do you quantify that in a meaningful way. With vague statistics!! Look at the table below: 2014 schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Team X 17 21 -4 8 Team X 33 14 19 146 Team X 34 10 24 382 Team X 0 23 -23 438 Team X 31 28 3 112 Team X 41 12 29 524 Team X 34 39 -5 77 Team X 60 14 46 298 Team X 48 31 17 161 Team X 49 21 28 127 Team X 35 21 13 227 I blanked the opponents name but you might be able to figure it out. That is the 2014 Cedar Park schedule and results. Now here is the 2014 Crosby schedule and results: 2014 Crosby Schedule PF PA Differential MaxPreps Rank Nederland 24 20 4 426 Angleton 38 20 18 145 Barbers Hill 30 7 23 363 Humble 17 10 7 422 Galena Park 62 10 52 851 Kingwood Park 24 14 10 287 Dayton 41 35 6 220 New Caney 24 0 24 491 Porter 39 13 26 747 C.E. King 21 28 -7 88 Cedar Park had 3 losses that year and Crosby had 1. Who had the better regular season? Crosby. Wins matter and Crosby had more of them. But as you know, that isn't the whole story. I wanted a way to apply the numbers that we have and figure out the true value of play. I am a fan so I am not unbiased. And, to me, I can't tell if I am watching a mediocre team stomp a bunch of bad teams or is this team really better than some teams in the past. So this is what I found. Dividing the average point differential by the team's rank on MaxPreps (don't start, it is the number I have and it is easy to find) will give you a power number. This tells more than just W/L. Stomping a bad team will be washed somewhat by the bad teams high ranking number. The lower power number, the better the team has performed. 2014 Cedar Park lost 3 regular season games and handily beat Crosby deep in the playoffs Power number for both? 2014 Cedar Park Worthless Power Number = 17 2014 Crosby Worthless Power Number = 25 And the score showed as much. I got a number for 2017 Crosby and I wanted to compare it with other teams to see where those numbers fell. I didn't have time for all the teams so I was more selective. I pulled up the Playoff Projections off of texasfootball.com. Every top 25 ranked team in the 5A DII bracket prediction got a number. Plus I wanted to do Manvel just to validate the number. Here is the Manvel table. 2017 Manvel Schedule Manvel Score Opponent Score Differential Maxpreps Rank Pearland 45 7 38 91 North Shore 24 21 3 81 FB Willowridge 70 14 56 625 Ball 35 7 28 190 FB Marshall 56 27 29 166 FB Elkins 62 7 55 398 Texas City Santa Fe Galena Park Manvel Averages 49 14 35 259 2017 Manvel WORTHLESS POWER # 7 Whoa. No other team gets close to a 7. Manvel only has 6 games so they could very easily come up some. But their numbers tell me they are whipping most teams (I should do Aledo). They deserve that number. Next up is the ranked teams in the 5A DII predicted bracket. Consolidated has a tough schedule. 2017 AM Consolidated Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Copperas Cove 34 14 20 265 Magnolia 52 47 5 133 Austin 66 0 66 558 College Park 19 13 6 375 Waco 35 31 4 138 Temple 20 28 -8 50 College Station 17 28 -11 63 Bryan 12 3 9 218 University Rudder Team AVG 32 21 11 225 WORTHLESS POWER # 20 Next up is FB Marshall. They took two bad losses that hurt their number. 2017 FB Marshall Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Klein 7 27 -20 112 FB Hightower 20 7 13 300 Galena Park 57 7 50 733 FB Willowridge 77 20 57 625 Manvel 27 56 -29 3 Ball 55 7 48 229 FB Elkins Texas City Sante Fe Team AVG 41 21 20 334 WORTHLESS POWER # 17 College Station took some losses but this isn't that tough of a schedule. 2017 College StationSchedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Westlake 28 35 -7 4 Shoemaker 49 10 39 478 St. Pius 41 58 -17 16 Pflugerville 35 0 35 459 Bryan 35 34 1 218 University 62 14 48 772 A&M Consolidated 28 17 11 97 Rudder 49 14 35 560 Waco Temple Team AVG 41 23 18 326 WORTHLESS POWER # 18 2017 Huntsville Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank China Spring 17 14 3 130 Conroe 41 13 28 636 Tomball Memorial 24 21 3 186 Willis 49 7 42 386 Magnolia 48 24 24 133 Waller 45 7 38 561 Tomball Brenham Magnolia West Team AVG 37 14 23 339 WORTHLESS POWER # 15 PNG hasn't played talented teams but they have stomped the teams they did play. 2017 PNG Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Sterling 55 13 42 234 Lumberton 42 0 42 507 Livingston 56 14 42 1048 Lee 59 21 38 865 Port Arthur Memorial 44 36 8 137 Vidor 42 14 28 269 Beaumont Central Ozen Nederland Team AVG 50 16 33 510 WORTHLESS POWER # 15 I really like Hutto but they are going to run into a tougher schedule coming up. Cedar Park lost their QB so that may get interesting. 2017 Hutto Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Bryan 54 14 40 218 Georgetown 25 23 2 98 Pflugerville Connally 63 28 35 621 Elgin 56 14 42 615 Bastrop 55 13 42 554 East View 56 19 37 451 Rouse Cedar Park Cedar Creek Team AVG 52 19 33 426 WORTHLESS POWER # 13 And that gets us to the 2017 Crosby number. It is higher than I expected. Looking at the quality of opponent and the scores, this team is better than the 2014 team. Does it feel that way? Just by gut feel? Nope. But the numbers say this is a better team: 2017 Crosby Schedule Crosby Score Opponent Score Differential Maxpreps Rank Jasper 42 36 6 151 Barbers Hill 48 32 16 231 Porter 42 35 7 333 LCM 58 14 44 279 Kingwood Park 63 45 18 422 Caney Creek 57 17 40 690 Dayton 69 27 42 454 Splendora Humble New Caney 2017 Season Avg 54 29 25 366 WORTHLESS POWER # 15 And sure, some of these playoff teams will get upended and be at home when we all just knew they would advance. That is the way it is. Will be interesting to see how well this number is predictively. I need to try and get all the numbers for the district.

wait...is that true? Cleveland hasn't had a district win since 2014?