tvc184

Rita did and I think it was Andrew in 1992 where we had our first mass evacuation as it was supposed to clobber us and it went so far east the last two days that we didn't get a cloud out of it.

Shades of Rita. In the words of Yogi Berra, this is like deja vu all over again.

There is no way to even guess when we can't know where the storm will make landfall. If it stays on the current predicted course, we could see Edouard like conditions around here and maybe a little worse. How much lost power back in August when it hit?

All that stuff is just gibberish. They don't show when they got those predictions as opposed to the time of landfall. Forty-eight hours before Rita landed, it was not predicted to his Palacios. If you want to go back in time, the predictions five days ago were for Ike to hit the east coast of Florida. So I guess you can say they have a 1,500 mile wrong prediction. I don't start paying attention to predictions until the storm is less than three days out. Anything other than that is just to get people alerted.

I expect that Port Arthur will probably call for a voluntary (or maybe mandatory) evacuation of Sabine Pass. Other than that..........

I don't think we will evacuate for tropical storm or Category 1 conditions.

Predicting hurricanes in the Gulf is kind of like watching a close football game. It adds to the excitement of it to speculate it coming closer.

IS THIS A JOKE? No it isn't! It is an official weather bulletin! :

Look for Sabine Pass to be evacuated for the same reason. It is right on the coast and a storm surge 150 miles away from the eye can still bring the water up into the town. It doesn't mean where the storm will hit but who will have an effect from it.

The is the first time that I have heard the term "common sense" used to describe where a hurricane will hit.

The next 48 hours are going to be interesting.

It is expected to speed up some over the Gulf. From what I just got from the briefing, the faster it moves, the better it is for us?

Heavy on the "at the very least". From the weather briefing that just ended..... it is still a toss of the dice. No one is out of the woods yet.

Good idea. Forecasting hurricane landfall more than 48 hours out (or even then) is a guess. The predictions are interesting and cause a lot of conversations but they are unreliable at best. The good thing about the predictions is that it keeps people's minds on the fact that unpredictable storms are out there. Other than that........

Because of a hurricane that might hit Mexico?

That's what I thought... at least in state waters.

Likely Thursday morning at 6:00AM .... ....IF it stays on its current track and IF it maintains speed.

Anyone that has seen the 5:00AM five day forecast from the NHC and then the models, can't be thrilled. I am glad those models change so often because right now, it ain't looking good for the home team.

That is why I always say, computer models are inaccurate at best and a downright joke the rest of the time. They are only good for about four hours. After that, the weather conditions that they depended on have changed and so will the models. They are interesting and kind of like debating football and which team is the best. Anything more than a couple of days out is just like tossing dice. Heck, two days before Rita hit, we weren't even going to evacuate. This storm is just as likely to hit the Florida panhandle or the Yucatan. The models from six days ago said the north Atlantic. Then it was toward the east coast and then the east coast of Florida. Next it was going to barely round the Keys and then head toward Tampa Bay or maybe toward Pennsacola. Oops, it is going toward Missisippi... but wait, now it is heading toward NOLA again. Until of course, the latest map which shows the upper Texas coast. Nope, I don't think anyone can call this one with any reasonable accuracy at this point. A good guess might pan out but that is all it will be. The way they keep pushing the track south and westerly, it may not even hit the US mainland. I don't believe that but so far, none of the early predictions have come close to being correct.

: : : ;D ;D ;D

It's finally making the historical turn to the eastern seaboard.

.... and had a very large crowd of several thousand people.

I completely disagree with Moody's call on this.... but it is his call to make. Coaching should not be done by committee or "the entire community". He was wrong in my opinion but it is his right to make that call.

I am sure that Neumann would like the run first too but you have got to have a good back that can carry the load and line that can make the holes. I haven't seen that in the last two years.

I know that everyone knows this.... but just in case.... even with the store or station closed, you can often get gasoline. If you have a credit card, check cashing card, etc., you can get gas out of the pumps (assuming your card has available credit) by using the card reader on most pumps. As long as there is power to the station and gasoline in the tanks, you can usually fuel up.