tvc184

Gee, that is crude. By the way, they spell it N-E-V-E-R.

I can't decide if I think it will be close or a blowout but I think Dayton wins, probably by 7 or more.

Words of wisdom that will likely fall on deaf ears.

Sitting on my box blind in Chester, TX that morning, I doubt that I will see any ducks.

Ah yes, the comparative scores. Vidor squeaks by Nederland and then loses to Lumberton. What if they play like those games? You cannot compare one game to the next. Nederland played pretty much a dead even game against Vidor and then lost to Central by 39. By that score, Vidor should not have been in the game against Central. You just cannot compare one game to the next. Nederland beat PN-G and PN-G beat Lumberton so I guess Lumberton should not even show up against Nederland right? Vidor lost to Lumberton and then PN-G beat Lumberton by 2 touchdowns. By comparing scores, I guess PN-G is a 3 touchdown favorite over Vidor. The bottom line is that you can toss out all previous scores and games. I think it will be a close game just like all of Vidor's games so far, likely decided by less than a touchdown.

This is going out on a limb but... There are 5 teams in contention for 3rd place. I think it is likely that all of them will lose (or have lost) to Dayton and Central so everyone goes 0-2 against them. Each of the 5 will beat Ozen and thereby go 1-0. It looks like the 5 contenders for 3rd place will each go 2-1 against Dayon-Central-Ozen. You can just about throw those games out. So it comes down to who wins against each other between Nederland, Lumberton, PN-G, LC-M and Vidor. It is like a small district round-robin (4 games each) for one playoff spot within a larger district. Nederland is 1-1/ a loss to Vidor and they beat PN-G. They have Lumberton and LC-M left. Lumberton is 1-1/ a loss to PN-G and they beat Vidor. They have LC-M and Nederland left. PN-G is 1-2/ losses to Nederland and LC-M. They only have Vidor left. LC-M is 1-0/ They beat PN-G. They have games against Nederland, Lumberton and Vidor left. Vidor is 1-1/ They beat Nederland and lost to Lumberton. They have games with LC-M and PN-G left. LC-M is in the best spot since they have not lost a game to the teams that they are playing against for the 3rd spot. But at 1-0, they still have to play 3 of the other teams, the most remaining games against the contenders. PN-G has already lost 2 games in the mix. Their best finish against the contenders is 2-2. They are the least likely to get a spot at this point. Vidor, Nederland and Lumberton are in a dead heat at 1-1. Interstingly enough, each of them must play LC-M. If any of them beat LC-M, then each of the teams will have at least 1 loss each. Also, with Vidor, Nederland and Lumberton each playing the front runner LC-M, each will somewhat control their own destiny, according to who else loses and by how many points. Each team except PN-G has a chance at coming out with at least a 3-1 record against the other 4 contenders for the spot. Which all means, it is still wide open for the third playoff spot. Without an upset of Dayton/Central or an upset loss to Ozen, this next three weeks might make for a wild finish that might not be decided until the last game is finished three weeks from now. I really don't see any favorites at this point.

Yep.... and Nederland was going to roll over Vidor and PN-G was going to roll over LC-M and Central was going to roll over Vidor and........

No kidding. Nederland could score 35 points and lose this one, even against Ozen.

They probably liked him because maybe he was a nice guy and his players respected him. LCM did not get a new coach to get a fresh start, they got a new coach because they were not going to the playoffs. If they had a string of several years in the playoffs, you can bet they would not have wanted a "fresh start".

Probably the same way Lumberton will compare to them, with two losses.

Vidor played a very inspired game against Nederland and had to score a touchdown in the final few seconds of the game in order to win by 4 points. That puts them right about the same level as Nederland. Nederland may very well be rated near the bottom but Vidor is right in there with them.

The idea of having one site for 5A championship games is prima facie evidence that the UIL is about money. Their rationale for doing so is easily shown to be wrong. It comes down to money.

There is no longer the urgency but I don't think any coach plays for a playoff spot only. Which fans or which coaches would take third place in a district if they can be the district champion? With that being said, I would bet that the third place schools certainly don't go into the playoffs feeling cheap. Then there is the excitement of just going for a playoff spot late in the season. Right now Lumberton is making an effort for their first ever playoff spot. LC-M is trying to make it for the first time in several years. I wonder if their fans feel cheap. If we did not have multiple playoff teams, District 22-4A would basically be over with more than half the district games to go. The only game that would be significant would be the Dayton vs Central game to see which one team went to the playoffs. That might be appealing to some people but I would think an overwhelming majority of fans would keep the current system. Would the Dayton and Central fans want to make it a winner take all game with the loser not going to the playoffs? I would bet not.

If they haven't changed the tie breakers lately, it will be head to head first and then a point spread after that. In the point spread, it will be common points between the tied teams with no more than a 16 point loss in any game.

Nederland must beat LC-M, Lumberton and Ozen. IF that happens, a loss to Dayton probably will have no bearing on the third place spot.

Nederland went to the playoffs the first year Larry Neumann was their coach and then got pounded their first playoff game by Silsbee 34-7. They then went on to miss the next two years. I have a feeling that if Neumann would have been coaching at Ozen, he would have been fired 10 year (and 10 playoff spots) ago. Ozen needs to find them a coach they think they can win with and stick with him. Clayton might not be the guy but getting rid of the coach every two year because he didn't make it to the state finals cannot be good for a program.

What? Their 8th coach in 5 years?

PN-G seems to be having a problem controlling the line of scrimmage on defense right now. If they do not improve rapidly, Lumberton will win this one and still be in decent shape for a playoff spot. Lumberton already has Central and Dayton behind them. PN-G still has to play both of them.

What mid-county is for southeast Texas is the biggest rivalry in the area. It might not be the best game of the year or even the best game of the week, but the rivalry runs deep. It is not just football. It extends to every UIL sport and down into PeeWee leagues. No other schools will match the intensity in emotions and bragging rights. I have seen a Nederland-PNG basketball game where they were basically playing for last place in the district and they packed the gym. I have seen Nederland-PNG baseball games that drew more people that some area football games. The Nederland-PNG should mean nothing to anyone outside of those communities. Why should it? I could care less about Midland Lee vs Odessa Permian, I don't care how big it is. But for this area, there is nothing that approaches it.

But district championships and playoff spots are not determined by points like they are in high school. You are comparing apples and oranges.