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What are the odds that it actually takes two years to name a replacement?

 

I'd say pretty low. The Senate has to confirm him. They need 51 votes, and the Democrats currently hold 55 seats. Even if an appointment was made after the elections and the Republicans manage to take the Senate, the opposing party typically gives the president his way when it comes to his cabinet appointments. 15 Republicans actually contributed to the 75 votes that confirmed Holder himself.

 

What it really depends on is how quickly the president wants to replace him.

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