Who wins the GOP nomination?

[Bobcat1]

Curious who everyone thinks will win and who they'll pick as their VP.

[BS Wildcats]

Cruz/Rubio

[PAMFAM10]

rubio/kasich 

Cruz/(someone I never heard of)

[Hagar]

8 hours ago, BS Wildcats said:

Cruz/Rubio

This would be my guess, but at this stage, just throwing darts.  Could end up Strait/Jackson lol

[PN-G bamatex]

If it's Rubio (which I think is most likely and who I'll personally be voting for next month barring disaster), you can just about bet the house Kasich will be the VP selection. There's a possibility Nikki Haley or Suzanna Martinez might get it, but I don't see Rubio passing up on a popular Governor of one of the most important swing states in the race and a running mate whose long list of accomplishments over three decades in politics can almost immunize him from attacks over experience.

If it's (God forbid) Trump, I have no idea who ends up as the VP pick. It wouldn't surprise me if Kanye West was his running mate.

If it's Cruz, he'll need to recruit someone from one of the more moderate factions of the party to appeal to independents, and it's probably best if that someone's from a swing state. Rubio would be the first person I'd make the offer to, because Rubio's more than conservative enough to keep the base happy while still bringing a surprising amount of appeal to independents given his political leanings. Rubio also can't run for reelection to the Senate at this point, so he might be desperate enough to take it if he really wants to stay in politics. If Rubio shot it down, Kasich would be my next offer. Experienced, accomplished and also from an important swing state, though he's significantly more moderate and may upset some portion of the base. That said, I'm really not sure he would take it either. I think Cruz's only real options are Mike Lee or Jeff Sessions, and I'm not sure either of them bring him any real help in the race. Lee would probably be more palatable to independents and generally does well in favorability ratings, but he's from a deeply red state and doesn't have the appeal to independents of a Rubio or a Kasich. Sessions is in the same boat and doesn't have the favorability ratings.

While we're at this, on the other side of the aisle....

If it's Hillary, the smartest move she could possibly make is to pick up one of the two Castro brothers (the San Antonio ones, not the Havana ones). I'd go for Joaquin, but I'd also take who I could get if I were in her shoes. That said, it's Hillary we're talking about, and she's locked in a showdown for the nomination she didn't really expect. It would not surprise me at all if she made some deal somewhere with someone for a big-time endorsement and gave up her right to choose her own running mate in the process. It could literally be anyone of any significance in Democratic politics.

If it's Bernie, it wouldn't really surprise me to see Elizabeth Warren end up on the ticket, and that would certainly be his smartest move. It would smooth over the ruffled feathers of the party's feminists, who will not be happy over Hillary's loss, it will shore him up against attacks over age and being out of touch and it will attach him to a bright, young, energetic, female senator with a lot of populist appeal that will nicely complement his own. The only drawback is that she, like Bernie, is from a deeply blue New England state, but she might be able to overcome that if she plays on her Oklahoma and Texas roots. If it's not Warren, he might do well to pick one of the two Castro brothers, but I suspect Bernie's too ideologically inclined to pick one of the party's more moderate members. But, I don't know who is other options would be.

[tvc184]

9 hours ago, BS Wildcats said:

Cruz/Rubio

I can't remotely see this happening. That simply is not the way politics works. You would have 2 Hispanic American sons of Cuban immigrants. 

It would be like Hillary choosing another old white female to run along side of her. 

I am not knocking the choices, just can't see it happening. 

[PAMFAM10]

if winning was all that matters Rubio is a dream come true for GOP young from the most important swing state and Hispanic. Rubio can get votes others simply can't. He should be everyone first thought for vp if he's not nominee. 

[Bobcat1]

I believe Kasich stated he would not be anyone's VP.

[PhatMack19]

Bernie and Trump dominate New Hampshire.   Lord help us

[Englebert]

If we can't get enough support to secede, how about we vote on kicking New Hampshire out of the Union.

While we're at it, I wouldn't be opposed to kicking out all of the northeastern states, and throw out the west coast states with them.

[tvc184]

A bunch of ultra liberal Yankees vote for two guys that were born in NY, NY.

Stunning............ 

[Mr.Green Jeans]

Trump wins.

[PhatMack19]

Pretty good ad

 

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[Hagar]

Prior to yesterday's election, I heard all the "experts" talking about Trump, Rubio, and Christie. Don't remember one word about Cruz.  Look who got 3rd in a liberal state.  The guy who believes in the Constitution.   Perhaps all the citizens of NH aren't brain dead. 

[Hagar]

Price of poker just went up.  IMO who's anyone's VP pick is less important than who their S.Court picks will be.  That's my biggest problem with Trump.  And Scalia was a Constitutionalist Justice, which is getting rare.  Fortunately for the Dems, there is a plethora of of justices who are Socialist.  

[TxHoops]

I agree with PNG Bama-Tex.  My money is on Rubio.  If you look at his trajectory, reminds me a lot of Obama's in '08.  And when it comes to the general election, he plays better than Cruz IMO.  

[Hagar]

9 hours ago, TxHoops said:

I agree with PNG Bama-Tex.  My money is on Rubio.  If you look at his trajectory, reminds me a lot of Obama's in '08.  And when it comes to the general election, he plays better than Cruz IMO.  

Y'all are probably correct.  Also, based on the little I saw of last nights debate, he was the winner. And his demeanor will probably, as you say, "play better than Cruz".   To me, Cruz has more passion, which I perceive as a conservative desire to correct the direction our country has been heading.  Unfortunately, some moderates & independents may interpret differently.   But my age and dementia allows me more latitude.  

[PN-G bamatex]

Well, I guess I have to take Mike Lee off of Cruz's short list for VP picks now.

[PN-G bamatex]

... and maybe I was onto something when I put Nikki Haley, who was previously expected to endorse Jeb Bush, on Rubio's short list.

[Hagar]

6 hours ago, PN-G bamatex said:

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... and maybe I was onto something when I put Nikki Haley, who was previously expected to endorse Jeb Bush, on Rubio's short list.

Quite a coup for Rubio.   

I'd like to ask all the readers of this a question that concerns me.  With Rubio & Cruz dividing the conservative vote, will that make Trump the nominee?  Isn't a d-mn thing I can do about it.  Just don't like that senario.  

[PN-G bamatex]

23 hours ago, REBgp said:

Quite a coup for Rubio.   

I'd like to ask all the readers of this a question that concerns me.  With Rubio & Cruz dividing the conservative vote, will that make Trump the nominee?  Isn't a d-mn thing I can do about it.  Just don't like that senario.  

It depends on how quickly the other candidates in the race drop out, in my opinion. If Carson, Jeb and Kasich all drop out after South Carolina, my thoughts are that Rubio supplants Trump as the first place contender and that Cruz gets a mild boost as well. I also think that the moment we know for certain that Trump's no longer in the lead, the appeal of a candidate who bases everything on his reputed success and knack for winning at whatever he does collapses. If, on the other hand, too many candidates stay in for two long, Trump's chances of being the nominee go up dramatically.

Now, which case is more likely? I just don't know. Jeb seems obsessed with his candidacy, and he's got a lot of money sitting around. I don't think he's got a chance in heck of winning the nomination, but I do think there's a good chance he'll ride this thing out until the very end for no other reason than that he's so attached the family legacy and doing what his father and big brother did before him. I think there's a good chance Kasich drops out after South Carolina.

As for Dr. Carson, I really just don't know. Of all the anti-establishment candidates, there's a good argument to be made that Carson's is the most unorthodox in terms of how his campaign is run. It's certainly the hardest to read. No move or decision his campaign makes, in my opinion, comports with standard campaign practice in any way. What you would normally take as a sign of his campaign being over is really just him going home to get a change of clothes. That's just the story of the Ben Carson campaign. That said, as hard as it is to figure out what Carson will do next, one thing is for certain: the longer he stays in, the longer he's a thorn in Cruz's side. When the moment comes and Carson does finally drop out, I fully expect him to endorse someone other than Cruz, and that's going to really shake up an evangelical GOP base that Cruz is already having trouble getting through to.

[Hagar]

16 minutes ago, PN-G bamatex said:

It depends on how quickly the other candidates in the race drop out, in my opinion. If Carson, Jeb and Kasich all drop out after South Carolina, my thoughts are that Rubio supplants Trump as the first place contender and that Cruz gets a mild boost as well. I also think that the moment we know for certain that Trump's no longer in the lead, the appeal of a candidate who bases everything on his reputed success and knack for winning at whatever he does collapses. If, on the other hand, two many candidates stay in for two long, Trump's chances of being the nominee go up dramatically.

Now, which case is more likely? I just don't know. Jeb seems obsessed with his candidacy, and he's got a lot of money sitting around. I don't think he's got a chance in heck of winning the nomination, but I do think there's a good chance he'll ride this thing out until the very end for no other reason than that he's so attached the family legacy and doing what his father and big brother did before him. I think there's a good chance Kasich drops out after South Carolina.

As for Dr. Carson, I really just don't know. Of all the anti-establishment candidates, there's a good argument to be made that Carson's is the most unorthodox in terms of how his campaign is run. It's certainly the hardest to read. No move or decision his campaign makes, in my opinion, comports with standard campaign practice in any way. What you would normally take as a sign of his campaign being over is really just him going home to get a change of clothes. That's just the story of the Ben Carson campaign. That said, as hard as it is to figure out what Carson will do next, one thing is for certain: the longer he stays in, the longer he's a thorn in Cruz's side. When the moment comes and Carson does finally drop out, I fully expect him to endorse someone other than Cruz, and that's going to really shake up an evangelical GOP base that Cruz is already having trouble getting through to.

Based on your post, I sure hope several drop out.  I don't like Trump.  I do understand why voters are attracted to him.  His disregard of PC is something most of us find very appealing, along with his tough talk on several hot topic items.  I just can't see him as the whole package.  I'll fall back on my use of analogies.  He's like a big home that looks great on the outside, but when you open the door, nothing's done on the inside except toilets are installed but don't flush, and they're all full of poop.  And saddest of all, if he does get the nomination, in Nov I'll drag myself down to the polls and vote on him. 

[shovel]

I don't see any candidate backing out before March 2. Super Tuesday is too close for anybody to withdraw. Saying that, I'm curious to see what happens in SC and Nevada. Still kinda undecided...

[Englebert]

3 hours ago, REBgp said:

Based on your post, I sure hope several drop out.  I don't like Trump.  I do understand why voters are attracted to him.  His disregard of PC is something most of us find very appealing, along with his tough talk on several hot topic items.  I just can't see him as the whole package.  I'll fall back on my use of analogies.  He's like a big home that looks great on the outside, but when you open the door, nothing's done on the inside except toilets are installed but don't flush, and they're all full of poop.  And saddest of all, if he does get the nomination, in Nov I'll drag myself down to the polls and vote on him. 

I feel the same exact way.

If Cruz or Rubio win the nomination I will happily skip down to the polls to cast my vote. For all others, especially Trump, I'll drag myself to the polls not to cast a vote for them, but to cast a vote against the Dem nominee.

[PN-G bamatex]

20 hours ago, shovel said:

I don't see any candidate backing out before March 2. Super Tuesday is too close for anybody to withdraw. Saying that, I'm curious to see what happens in SC and Nevada. Still kinda undecided...

I disagree. Every poll out of South Carolina I can think of has put Kasich in the bottom half among the current GOP contenders. The most recent one, released today, put him in last place with 7% of the vote. If those numbers hold up, I think Kasich is out for sure after South Carolina. The question will be what Carson and Bush do.