5A playoff projections

[Realville]

To beat PAM - Vidor can't give PAM any extra possessions  Vidor will need to get a turnover or 2. Most importantly good ball distribution among our running backs. I believe the Pirates will be amped up for this game. They've worked hard to put themselves in this position to get a piece of the championship.

[biaplayer]

well we shall see this weekend and next who wants it most for fourth spot. Im betting on Central all they have to do is win this week if my calculations are right. Think Ned can win this week but I Like my NDNs the following week!

[NDNation]

23 minutes ago, Realville said:

To beat PAM - Vidor can't give PAM any extra possessions  Vidor will need to get a turnover or 2. Most importantly good ball distribution among our running backs. I believe the Pirates will be amped up for this game. They've worked hard to put themselves in this position to get a piece of the championship.

If you don't pass, at least you don't have to worry about Vincent getting a pick and offense can't score if they aren't on the field. Going to be an uphill battle, but it's not impossible.

[Brubaker]

1 hour ago, biaplayer said:

well we shall see this weekend and next who wants it most for fourth spot. Im betting on Central all they have to do is win this week if my calculations are right. Think Ned can win this week but I Like my NDNs the following week!

Incorrect, calcs are off, they have to win by 14 or more this week, and then Livingston would need to beat Ozen.

[Realville]

41 minutes ago, NDNation said:

If you don't pass, at least you don't have to worry about Vincent getting a pick and offense can't score if they aren't on the field. Going to be an uphill battle, but it's not impossible.

We have been known not to make a pass the whole game. Matter of fact we've played 2 or 3 games in row an not attempted a pass. Lol! Like I've said before we run to setup the run.

[WOSgrad]

13 hours ago, BHFAN said:

Ok one of you stat machines from 22-5A lay it out for us  on 21-5A I think it goes like this.

NC - If they beat Porter Friday  they are the DIV 1, 1 seed. If not they are the DIV1 2 seed

Porter - If they beat NC Friday they are  DIV 1, 1 seed. If not they are the DIV1 2 seed

Crosby - If they win 1 of the next 2 games they will be DIV II 1 seed. or if BH loses to Porter then Crosby is DIV II 1 seed. if not Crosby goes DIV II 2 seed.

BH -  If BH beats Porter and Crosby drops its last 2 then BH will be DIV II 1 seed. If not BH goes DIV II 2 seed.

 

Doubt Crosby will drop the last two so, DIV I seeding is the only one left to be decided in 21-5A.

 

22-5A is a little more complicated as, unlike 21-5A who is the 4th team is still undetermined and who that team is can shake up division reps and seedings.  But here goes:

Memorial, Vidor and PN-G have clinched playoffs spots:

Memorial - Clinches DI, #1 seed with a win over Baytown Lee this week OR a PN-G loss to Beaumont Ozen.  If neither of those happen this week , they can still earn the DI, #1 seed next week with a win over Vidor OR a PN-G loss to Nederland OR if Nederland or Central gain the final playoff spot.

Vidor - Idle this week but can clinch DII, #1 seed this week with a Livingston win over Central AND a Nederland loss to Lumberton.  Even if that doesn't happen, Vidor can get the DII, #1 seed next week with either of the following: 1. a win and a PN-G loss this week or to Nederland next week OR 2. Livingston gets the final playoff spot.  Otherwise, Vidor will be the DII#2 seed.

Port Neches-Groves - Probably the most unstable as far as both division and seeding.  If Livingston gets the final playoff spot they will be Division I.  If either Nederland or Central get the 4th spot, they will be Division II.

If they go Division I, they can get the DI #1 seeding if they go 2-0 AND Memorial goes 0-2 in their final 2 games.  Otherwise, they will be DI, #2.

If they go Division II, they can get the DII #1 spot if they win their final 2 games or PNG wins one of their last two games Vidor loses to Port Arthur Memorial next week. 

At this point let me acknowledge there is a scenario that Memorial, PN-G and Vidor could tie for the district championship in a manner which would call for a positive point calculation to determine district standings.  However, in the past in cases where the tie was to determine seeding within a Division as opposed to who advanced and who stayed home, this District has chosen to merely settle the ties head to head between the teams in like Divisions as opposed to a true positive point, or as 22-5A calls it net point, system.

Now back to the teams.

Livingston can clinch the Division II, #2 seed this week by beating Beaumont Central AND a Nederland loss to Lumberton this week.  They can also earn that spot if PN-G wins one of its last two games, Nederland loses one of its last 2 games AND Livingston beats both Central and Ozen.

Nederland can earn the Division I, #2 seed by going 2-0 in their final 2 games and, Livingston going 1-1 in their final 2 games. They can also earn it if both they and Livingston go 1-1 in their final 2 games and Central goes 2-0 in their final 2 games but beats Livingston by 13 points or less.  Finally, they can also earn it if both Nederland and Livingston go 2-0 in their final 2 games and PN-G goes 0-2 in their final two games.

Central can earn the Division I, #2 seed by 1) going 2-0 in their final 2 games, beating Livingston by 14 or more this week and Nederland and Livingston both going 1-1 in their final 2 game OR 2) going 2-0 in their final 2 games and Nederland going 0-2 in their final 2 games.

I think that covers it.

[robanadana]

16 minutes ago, WOSgrad said:

22-5A is a little more complicated as, unlike 21-5A who is the 4th team is still undetermined and who that team is can shake up division reps and seedings.  But here goes:

Memorial, Vidor and PN-G have clinched playoffs spots:

Memorial - Clinches DI, #1 seed with a win over Baytown Lee this week OR a PN-G loss to Beaumont Ozen.  If neither of those happen this week , they can still earn the DI, #1 seed next week with a win over Vidor OR a PN-G loss to Nederland OR if Nederland or Central gain the final playoff spot.

Vidor - Idle this week but can clinch DII, #1 seed this week with a Livingston win over Central AND a Nederland loss to Lumberton.  Even if that doesn't happen, Vidor can get the DII, #1 seed next week with either of the following: 1. a win and a PN-G loss this week or to Nederland next week OR 2. Livingston gets the final playoff spot.  Otherwise, Vidor will be the DII#2 seed.

Port Neches-Groves - Probably the most unstable as far as both division and seeding.  If Livingston gets the final playoff spot they will be Division I.  If either Nederland or Central get the 4th spot, they will be Division II.

If they go Division I, they can get the DI #1 seeding if they go 2-0 AND Memorial goes 0-2 in their final 2 games.  Otherwise, they will be DI, #2.

If they go Division II, they can get the DII #1 spot if they win their final 2 games or PNG wins one of their last two games Vidor loses to Port Arthur Memorial next week. 

At this point let me acknowledge there is a scenario that Memorial, PN-G and Vidor could tie for the district championship in a manner which would call for a positive point calculation to determine district standings.  However, in the past in cases where the tie was to determine seeding within a Division as opposed to who advanced and who stayed home, this District has chosen to merely settle the ties head to head between the teams in like Divisions as opposed to a true positive point, or as 22-5A calls it net point, system.

Now back to the teams.

Livingston can clinch the Division II, #2 seed this week by beating Beaumont Central AND a Nederland loss to Lumberton this week.  They can also earn that spot if PN-G wins one of its last two games, Nederland loses one of its last 2 games AND Livingston beats both Central and Ozen.

Nederland can earn the Division I, #2 seed by going 2-0 in their final 2 games and, Livingston going 1-1 in their final 2 games. They can also earn it if both they and Livingston go 1-1 in their final 2 games and Central goes 2-0 in their final 2 games but beats Livingston by 13 points or less.  Finally, they can also earn it if both Nederland and Livingston go 2-0 in their final 2 games and PN-G goes 0-2 in their final two games.

Central can earn the Division I, #2 seed by 1) going 2-0 in their final 2 games, beating Livingston by 14 or more this week and Nederland and Livingston both going 1-1 in their final 2 game OR 2) going 2-0 in their final 2 game and Nederland going 0-2 in their final 2 games.

I think that covers it.

You did all of that on the new Iphone, didn't you? C'mon man, tell the truth.

[WOSgrad]

5 minutes ago, robanadana said:

You did all of that on the new Iphone, didn't you? C'mon man, tell the truth.

Nope, from my laptop. LOL!

[Justafan72]

16 minutes ago, WOSgrad said:

Nope, from my laptop. LOL!

SALUTE !

[jake94]

If Nederland beats Lumberton and Central beats Livingston by less than 14, then Nederland is probably going to be in regardless of the PNG/Ned outcome. The reason I say this is that Central will beat Lee and if so Ned would have the tiebreakers on both. Am I missing something?

[Olddog]

True but I don't see PNG beating Dogs . We will be near full strength , fighting for playoff lives and the pressures on them not us . Hex goin on n all ! Haven't beat us since the turn of the century , no one on their team ever saw them win ??? Just sayin rather b us than them . I think we got this . Need to beat Raiders 1st . Then let's git it on !! 

[WOSgrad]

11 hours ago, jake94 said:

If Nederland beats Lumberton and Central beats Livingston by less than 14, then Nederland is probably going to be in regardless of the PNG/Ned outcome. The reason I say this is that Central will beat Lee and if so Ned would have the tiebreakers on both. Am I missing something?

Probably?  Yes.  In fact, when I was discussing the playoff situation with Gabe for his column this weekend, I had originally told him that Nederland could clinch the final playoff spot this weekend based on this.

But I had to walk that back and can only agree to "probably" as your scenario assumes a Central win in Week 11 and while I agree that will probably happen, I have seen teams spit the bit with bigger advantages.

 

[robanadana]

3 hours ago, WOSgrad said:

Probably?  Yes.  But again, your scenario assumes a Central win in Week 11 and while I agree that will probably happen, I have seen teams spit the bit with bigger advantages.

Great drama! Hard to decide what game to go see this weekend.

[BHFAN]

10 hours ago, WOSgrad said:

Nope, from my laptop. LOL!

Thanks for laying that out for us.

[texbuzz]

And how locked in is Cedar Park to D1?

[CCRed]

9 minutes ago, texbuzz said:

And how locked in is Cedar Park to D1?

In the words of Forrest Gump:  "That's whole other country"

[WOSgrad]

2 hours ago, texbuzz said:

And how locked in is Cedar Park to D1?

As the current standings sit, Cedar Park (1949) and Pflugerville Connally (1977) would be the DI reps out of 19-5A.  It appears that the only way that CP won't be in DI is if Leander Rouse (2006) can nudge out Hutto (1773.5) or Georgetown (1876) for the 4th spot.

If Elgin beats Rouse tomorrow that appears to lock CP into DI.

[Stattrax]

I just do not see it as that complicated... Nederland or Central will get in. I cannot see it going down any other way. PAM, PNG, Vidor, Ned/Central....... Regardless of that PNG goes D2 #1. even with a loss to Nederland. I can see Nederland winning out as well as Central.

[Cougar14.2]

On 10/27/2016 at 2:06 PM, WOSgrad said:

As the current standings sit, Cedar Park (1949) and Pflugerville Connally (1977) would be the DI reps out of 19-5A.  It appears that the only way that CP won't be in DI is if Leander Rouse (2006) can nudge out Hutto (1773.5) or Georgetown (1876) for the 4th spot.

If Elgin beats Rouse tomorrow that appears to lock CP into DI.

Rouse is probably going to beat Elgin, an Rlgin win would lock CP into D2 as long as Hutto won out. The realistic scenario to lock CP into D2 is just for Georgetown to beat Connally at the end on the season 

[Cougar14.2]

For the first time in a long time I think three of the four bi-district games between 21-5A and 22-5-5A will be harder than the second round games where you play the Fort Bend vs HISD winners. The winner of the game between 21-5A D1 #1 seed vs 22-5A D1 #2 seed will get Manvel. 

[texbuzz]

On 10/28/2016 at 4:46 PM, Cougar14.2 said:

Rouse is probably going to beat Elgin, an Rlgin win would lock CP into D2 as long as Hutto won out. The realistic scenario to lock CP into D2 is just for Georgetown to beat Connally at the end on the season 

Rouse beat Elgin.  Hutto lost to CP.  Rouse has to get in to put CP into Div 2.   Hutto and Rouse should both win this week and that leaves them with same records.  Does it then go to Head to head?

[WOSgrad]

16 minutes ago, texbuzz said:

Rouse beat Elgin.  Hutto lost to CP.  Rouse has to get in to put CP into Div 2.   Hutto and Rouse should both win this week and that leaves them with same records.  Does it then go to Head to head?

Individual districts decide their tiebreakers, but most, if not all, settle ties  between 2 teams on the head to head result.

[Cougar14.2]

1 hour ago, texbuzz said:

Rouse beat Elgin.  Hutto lost to CP.  Rouse has to get in to put CP into Div 2.   Hutto and Rouse should both win this week and that leaves them with same records.  Does it then go to Head to head?

Yeah, it's head to head in their district but Georgetown also needs to beat Connally the last week of the season so GT, Rouse and Hutto don't all end up with 5-3 district records leaving Hutto out and sending Cedar Park D2. Basically if GT doesn't beat Connally this week Cedar Park will be D2.  

[bronco pride]

I think we deserve a CP vs Manvel game. Lol. I hope it works out that way. I know I would definitely be there.

[Indianforever]

30 minutes ago, bronco pride said:

I think we deserve a CP vs Manvel game. Lol. I hope it works out that way. I know I would definitely be there.

At tha Butch