Realignment

[Lightning/Eagle]

7 minutes ago, Raiders94 said:

Wouldn't this drop West Brook to 5-A?

The last enrollment had them at 2495. Not sure where they will be this time.

[Clueless]

1 hour ago, Raiders94 said:

Wouldn't this drop West Brook to 5-A?

Maybe, depends on what numbers they turn in. I also think bottom number raises to around 1200, which might effect Lumberton and couple of others. Of course this just chopping it up, who knows what the UIL will actually do. I do think there'sgoing to be alot of shaking up and more travel than this part of the state is use to.

[Clueless]

1 hour ago, Lightning/Eagle said:

The last enrollment had them at 2495. Not sure where they will be this time.

Which will possibly make them one of the smallest 6a schools next realignment. BISD needs to do some rezoning and have all 3 5a schools.

[NDNation]

2 hours ago, TradenupBH said:

Here's what I came up with.

5A D1

New Caney, Porter, Kingwood Park, Caney Creek, Lufkin, Conroe Grand Oaks (JV 2018, Varsity 2019 5A, next realignment 6A)

PA Memorial, Baytown Lee, Galena Park, GCM, La Porte, Friendswood

5A D2

BH, Dayton, PNG, Vidor, Nederland, Lumberton, Ozen

Crosby, Splendora, Livingston, Huffman, Cleveland

 

What about Central?

[BlackShirts5]

11 minutes ago, TradenupBH said:

Which will possibly make them one of the smallest 6a schools next realignment. BISD needs to do some rezoning and have all 3 5a schools.

As well does Baytown...

[Clueless]

2 hours ago, TradenupBH said:

Here's what I came up with.

5A D1

New Caney, Porter, Kingwood Park, Caney Creek, Lufkin, Conroe Grand Oaks (JV 2018, Varsity 2019 5A, next realignment 6A)

PA Memorial, Baytown Lee, Galena Park, GCM, La Porte, Friendswood

5A D2

BH, Dayton, PNG, Vidor, Nederland, Lumberton, Ozen, Central

Crosby, Splendora, Livingston, Huffman, Cleveland, Humble

 

I read where UIl wanted 7 or 8 team districts, so I'm sure there will be more teams added.

[pakronos]

5 minutes ago, TradenupBH said:

 

Nederland and central would go with PAM

[Clueless]

6 minutes ago, pakronos said:

Nederland and central would go with PAM

Last realignment

PAM 2,098

Ned 1,596

Central 1,471

That's a big gap. I think 5A D1 will start around 1,700. I don't see 5A D1 starting around 1,400 or 1,500.

[pakronos]

12 minutes ago, TradenupBH said:

Last realignment

PAM 2,098

Ned 1,596

Central 1,471

That's a big gap. I think 5A D1 will start around 1,700. I don't see 5A D1 starting around 1,400 or 1,500.

that enrollment is incorrect for PAM. that's what was turned in prior to dropping to 5A. PAM is 1800, probably less than that due to Harvey

[Hupernikomen]

They use all 4 grades so each grade level is accounted for at least twice during enrollment.  It is not uncommon for smaller district to have a "bubble" year where enrollment is significantly higher in that one grade level.  If you did not count seniors and that group was only counted in the 10th grade for the first time then that big enrollment would only affect that district in one enrollment.

Either a class gets counted in the 9th and 11th grade year or it gets counted in the 10th and 12th grade year.  Every class gets counted twice under the current system.  

[Lightning/Eagle]

50 minutes ago, pakronos said:

that enrollment is incorrect for PAM. that's what was turned in prior to dropping to 5A. PAM is 1800, probably less than that due to Harvey

True but PAM is likely to have D1 numbers for 5A, not so sure about Central and maybe even Nederland. Central appears to have D2 numbers most likely.

[Clueless]

19 minutes ago, Lightning/Eagle said:

True but PAM is likely to have D1 numbers for 5A, not so sure about Central and maybe even Nederland. Central appears to have D2 numbers most likely.

Ned is land locked, no way their numbers will be D1

[The Icon]

On 10/13/2017 at 10:46 AM, pakronos said:

PAM was 1800 prior to Harvey 

6A school with over 2100 kids just a couple years ago - shifts in enrollment always grab my attention whether it is growth or not...

[Raiders94]

20 hours ago, TradenupBH said:

Maybe, depends on what numbers they turn in. I also think bottom number raises to around 1200, which might effect Lumberton and couple of others. Of course this just chopping it up, who knows what the UIL will actually do. I do think there'sgoing to be alot of shaking up and more travel than this part of the state is use to.

I'm sure Lumberton is less than 1200

[Sportsfan1999]

lumberton is prob about 60 to 70 students below 1200

[pakronos]

1 hour ago, The Icon said:

6A school with over 2100 kids just a couple years ago - shifts in enrollment always grab my attention whether it is growth or not...

key word...last year. graduating class could have been very big and the incoming freshman not so much?? PAM graduates 400-500 kids

[CardinalBacker]

2 hours ago, pakronos said:

key word...last year. graduating class could have been very big and the incoming freshman not so much?? PAM graduates 400-500 kids

I don't think you want to start a conversation about how many kids PAM graduates.  

That number doesn't really reflect actual enrollment. 

[BMTSoulja1]

51 minutes ago, CardinalBacker said:

I don't think you want to start a conversation about how many kids PAM graduates.  

That number doesn't really reflect actual enrollment. 

What are you talking about.  Memorial graduates about 99.99% of their seniors, and it's a lot of them.  First hand knowledge from someone that works and worked in Administration...

[CardinalBacker]

2 hours ago, BMTSoulja1 said:

What are you talking about.  Memorial graduates about 99.99% of their seniors, and it's a lot of them.  First hand knowledge from someone that works and worked in Administration...

That’s weird, because when you research a little from people who didn’t work in administration, they state 68% graduation rate. 

It might be a rounding error, though. 

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I guess my point to Pak is that it’s even more of an advantage to PAM based on the fact that IF PAM’s dropout rate was similar to other schools, PAM’s enrollment would be well up into the 6A range... and I doubt that much of the actual talent that exists drops out. The unspoken reason why PAM always seems so talent-rich for their size is because so many untalented kids drop out. I’m guessing not a lot of The talented athletes drop out. 

[BMTSoulja1]

9 minutes ago, CardinalBacker said:

That’s weird, because when you research a little from people who didn’t work in administration, they state 68% graduation rate. 

It might be a rounding error, though. 

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I guess my point to Pak is that it’s even more of an advantage to PAM based on the fact that IF PAM’s dropout rate was similar to other schools, PAM’s enrollment would be well up into the 6A range... and I doubt that much of the actual talent that exists drops out. The unspoken reason why PAM always seems so talent-rich for their size is because so many untalented kids drop out. I’m guessing not a lot of The talented athletes drop out. 

My information was based on incoming seniors in the fall all the way to graduation in June...

[CardinalBacker]

5 minutes ago, BMTSoulja1 said:

My information was based on incoming seniors in the fall all the way to graduation in June...

Of course. It makes sense that most kids that manage to stay enrolled up to that last year end up soldiering across the finish line. That 99% number sounds a lot more realistic for that group. 

The horrifying thought is that 32% ofnincoming freshmen won’t graduate. One out  of every three freshmen end up dropping out. One out of three. 

It’s hard to wrap my brain around. 

[BMTSoulja1]

8 minutes ago, CardinalBacker said:

Of course. It makes sense that most kids that manage to stay enrolled up to that last year end up soldiering across the finish line. That 99% number sounds a lot more realistic for that group. 

The horrifying thought is that 32% ofnincoming freshmen won’t graduate. One out  of every three freshmen end up dropping out. One out of three. 

It’s hard to wrap my brain around. 

I completely agree...  Frightening, truely...

[Sportsfan1999]

Here is Carl Padilla Cut off numbers prediction 

6a 2150+
5aD1 1780- 2149
5a D2 1150 - 1799
4a D1 745- 1149
4a D2 490- 744
3a D1 325-489
3a D2 225- 324
2a D1 160- 224
2a D2 105- 159

[Tiger33]

2 hours ago, sportsfan2017 said:

Here is Carl Padilla Cut off numbers prediction 

6a 2150+
5aD1 1780- 2149
5a D2 1150 - 1799
4a D1 745- 1149
4a D2 490- 744
3a D1 325-489
3a D2 225- 324
2a D1 160- 224
2a D2 105- 159

Well if those numbers are accurate we will stay 4a d1

[Sportsfan1999]

yeah and Lumberton would be 4a D1 also