Lightning/Eagle Posted October 16, 2017 Report Posted October 16, 2017 On 10/16/2017 at 8:25 PM, Raiders94 said: Wouldn't this drop West Brook to 5-A? Expand The last enrollment had them at 2495. Not sure where they will be this time. Quote
Clueless Posted October 16, 2017 Report Posted October 16, 2017 On 10/16/2017 at 8:25 PM, Raiders94 said: Wouldn't this drop West Brook to 5-A? Expand Maybe, depends on what numbers they turn in. I also think bottom number raises to around 1200, which might effect Lumberton and couple of others. Of course this just chopping it up, who knows what the UIL will actually do. I do think there'sgoing to be alot of shaking up and more travel than this part of the state is use to. Raiders94 1 Quote
Clueless Posted October 16, 2017 Report Posted October 16, 2017 On 10/16/2017 at 8:30 PM, Lightning/Eagle said: The last enrollment had them at 2495. Not sure where they will be this time. Expand Which will possibly make them one of the smallest 6a schools next realignment. BISD needs to do some rezoning and have all 3 5a schools. BlackShirts5 and AthleticSupporter - Jock 2 Quote
NDNation Posted October 16, 2017 Report Posted October 16, 2017 On 10/16/2017 at 7:14 PM, TradenupBH said: Here's what I came up with. 5A D1 New Caney, Porter, Kingwood Park, Caney Creek, Lufkin, Conroe Grand Oaks (JV 2018, Varsity 2019 5A, next realignment 6A) PA Memorial, Baytown Lee, Galena Park, GCM, La Porte, Friendswood 5A D2 BH, Dayton, PNG, Vidor, Nederland, Lumberton, Ozen Crosby, Splendora, Livingston, Huffman, Cleveland Expand What about Central? Quote
BlackShirts5 Posted October 16, 2017 Report Posted October 16, 2017 On 10/16/2017 at 9:34 PM, TradenupBH said: Which will possibly make them one of the smallest 6a schools next realignment. BISD needs to do some rezoning and have all 3 5a schools. Expand As well does Baytown... Quote
Clueless Posted October 16, 2017 Report Posted October 16, 2017 On 10/16/2017 at 7:14 PM, TradenupBH said: Here's what I came up with. 5A D1 New Caney, Porter, Kingwood Park, Caney Creek, Lufkin, Conroe Grand Oaks (JV 2018, Varsity 2019 5A, next realignment 6A) PA Memorial, Baytown Lee, Galena Park, GCM, La Porte, Friendswood 5A D2 BH, Dayton, PNG, Vidor, Nederland, Lumberton, Ozen, Central Crosby, Splendora, Livingston, Huffman, Cleveland, Humble Expand I read where UIl wanted 7 or 8 team districts, so I'm sure there will be more teams added. Quote
pakronos Posted October 16, 2017 Report Posted October 16, 2017 On 10/16/2017 at 9:47 PM, TradenupBH said: Expand Nederland and central would go with PAM HAWK85 1 Quote
Clueless Posted October 16, 2017 Report Posted October 16, 2017 On 10/16/2017 at 9:56 PM, pakronos said: Nederland and central would go with PAM Expand Last realignment PAM 2,098 Ned 1,596 Central 1,471 That's a big gap. I think 5A D1 will start around 1,700. I don't see 5A D1 starting around 1,400 or 1,500. Quote
pakronos Posted October 16, 2017 Report Posted October 16, 2017 On 10/16/2017 at 10:01 PM, TradenupBH said: Last realignment PAM 2,098 Ned 1,596 Central 1,471 That's a big gap. I think 5A D1 will start around 1,700. I don't see 5A D1 starting around 1,400 or 1,500. Expand that enrollment is incorrect for PAM. that's what was turned in prior to dropping to 5A. PAM is 1800, probably less than that due to Harvey Quote
Hupernikomen Posted October 16, 2017 Report Posted October 16, 2017 They use all 4 grades so each grade level is accounted for at least twice during enrollment. It is not uncommon for smaller district to have a "bubble" year where enrollment is significantly higher in that one grade level. If you did not count seniors and that group was only counted in the 10th grade for the first time then that big enrollment would only affect that district in one enrollment. Either a class gets counted in the 9th and 11th grade year or it gets counted in the 10th and 12th grade year. Every class gets counted twice under the current system. bulldog81 1 Quote
Lightning/Eagle Posted October 16, 2017 Report Posted October 16, 2017 On 10/16/2017 at 10:12 PM, pakronos said: that enrollment is incorrect for PAM. that's what was turned in prior to dropping to 5A. PAM is 1800, probably less than that due to Harvey Expand True but PAM is likely to have D1 numbers for 5A, not so sure about Central and maybe even Nederland. Central appears to have D2 numbers most likely. Quote
Clueless Posted October 16, 2017 Report Posted October 16, 2017 On 10/16/2017 at 10:58 PM, Lightning/Eagle said: True but PAM is likely to have D1 numbers for 5A, not so sure about Central and maybe even Nederland. Central appears to have D2 numbers most likely. Expand Ned is land locked, no way their numbers will be D1 Quote
The Icon Posted October 17, 2017 Report Posted October 17, 2017 On 10/13/2017 at 3:46 PM, pakronos said: PAM was 1800 prior to Harvey Expand 6A school with over 2100 kids just a couple years ago - shifts in enrollment always grab my attention whether it is growth or not... Quote
Raiders94 Posted October 17, 2017 Report Posted October 17, 2017 On 10/16/2017 at 9:32 PM, TradenupBH said: Maybe, depends on what numbers they turn in. I also think bottom number raises to around 1200, which might effect Lumberton and couple of others. Of course this just chopping it up, who knows what the UIL will actually do. I do think there'sgoing to be alot of shaking up and more travel than this part of the state is use to. Expand I'm sure Lumberton is less than 1200 Quote
Sportsfan1999 Posted October 17, 2017 Report Posted October 17, 2017 lumberton is prob about 60 to 70 students below 1200 Quote
pakronos Posted October 17, 2017 Report Posted October 17, 2017 On 10/17/2017 at 5:28 PM, The Icon said: 6A school with over 2100 kids just a couple years ago - shifts in enrollment always grab my attention whether it is growth or not... Expand key word...last year. graduating class could have been very big and the incoming freshman not so much?? PAM graduates 400-500 kids Quote
CardinalBacker Posted October 17, 2017 Report Posted October 17, 2017 On 10/17/2017 at 7:02 PM, pakronos said: key word...last year. graduating class could have been very big and the incoming freshman not so much?? PAM graduates 400-500 kids Expand I don't think you want to start a conversation about how many kids PAM graduates. That number doesn't really reflect actual enrollment. Quote
BMTSoulja1 Posted October 17, 2017 Report Posted October 17, 2017 On 10/17/2017 at 9:34 PM, CardinalBacker said: I don't think you want to start a conversation about how many kids PAM graduates. That number doesn't really reflect actual enrollment. Expand What are you talking about. Memorial graduates about 99.99% of their seniors, and it's a lot of them. First hand knowledge from someone that works and worked in Administration... Quote
CardinalBacker Posted October 18, 2017 Report Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/17/2017 at 10:25 PM, BMTSoulja1 said: What are you talking about. Memorial graduates about 99.99% of their seniors, and it's a lot of them. First hand knowledge from someone that works and worked in Administration... Expand That’s weird, because when you research a little from people who didn’t work in administration, they state 68% graduation rate. It might be a rounding error, though. This is the hidden content, please Sign In or Sign Up I guess my point to Pak is that it’s even more of an advantage to PAM based on the fact that IF PAM’s dropout rate was similar to other schools, PAM’s enrollment would be well up into the 6A range... and I doubt that much of the actual talent that exists drops out. The unspoken reason why PAM always seems so talent-rich for their size is because so many untalented kids drop out. I’m guessing not a lot of The talented athletes drop out. Quote
BMTSoulja1 Posted October 18, 2017 Report Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 12:58 AM, CardinalBacker said: That’s weird, because when you research a little from people who didn’t work in administration, they state 68% graduation rate. It might be a rounding error, though. This is the hidden content, please Sign In or Sign Up I guess my point to Pak is that it’s even more of an advantage to PAM based on the fact that IF PAM’s dropout rate was similar to other schools, PAM’s enrollment would be well up into the 6A range... and I doubt that much of the actual talent that exists drops out. The unspoken reason why PAM always seems so talent-rich for their size is because so many untalented kids drop out. I’m guessing not a lot of The talented athletes drop out. Expand My information was based on incoming seniors in the fall all the way to graduation in June... Quote
CardinalBacker Posted October 18, 2017 Report Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 1:05 AM, BMTSoulja1 said: My information was based on incoming seniors in the fall all the way to graduation in June... Expand Of course. It makes sense that most kids that manage to stay enrolled up to that last year end up soldiering across the finish line. That 99% number sounds a lot more realistic for that group. The horrifying thought is that 32% ofnincoming freshmen won’t graduate. One out of every three freshmen end up dropping out. One out of three. It’s hard to wrap my brain around. Quote
BMTSoulja1 Posted October 18, 2017 Report Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 1:13 AM, CardinalBacker said: Of course. It makes sense that most kids that manage to stay enrolled up to that last year end up soldiering across the finish line. That 99% number sounds a lot more realistic for that group. The horrifying thought is that 32% ofnincoming freshmen won’t graduate. One out of every three freshmen end up dropping out. One out of three. It’s hard to wrap my brain around. Expand I completely agree... Frightening, truely... Quote
Sportsfan1999 Posted October 18, 2017 Report Posted October 18, 2017 Here is Carl Padilla Cut off numbers prediction 6a 2150+5aD1 1780- 21495a D2 1150 - 17994a D1 745- 11494a D2 490- 7443a D1 325-4893a D2 225- 3242a D1 160- 2242a D2 105- 159 Quote
Tiger33 Posted October 18, 2017 Report Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 12:33 PM, sportsfan2017 said: Here is Carl Padilla Cut off numbers prediction 6a 2150+5aD1 1780- 21495a D2 1150 - 17994a D1 745- 11494a D2 490- 7443a D1 325-4893a D2 225- 3242a D1 160- 2242a D2 105- 159 Expand Well if those numbers are accurate we will stay 4a d1 Quote
Sportsfan1999 Posted October 18, 2017 Report Posted October 18, 2017 yeah and Lumberton would be 4a D1 also Quote
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