texbuzz Posted October 23, 2017 Report Posted October 23, 2017 · This will be long. Long story short - If you take the point differential and divide it by the current MaxPreps rank you get a number. The Crosby number is better than I thought. So, for the whole season this year, we have heard about how bad the Crosby defense is playing. Allowing too many points, mistakes. They won't be able to make it far in the playoffs. Hell, I feel that way most times also. But they win. So....how do you quantify that in a meaningful way. With vague statistics!! Look at the table below: 2014 schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Team X 17 21 -4 8 Team X 33 14 19 146 Team X 34 10 24 382 Team X 0 23 -23 438 Team X 31 28 3 112 Team X 41 12 29 524 Team X 34 39 -5 77 Team X 60 14 46 298 Team X 48 31 17 161 Team X 49 21 28 127 Team X 35 21 13 227 I blanked the opponents name but you might be able to figure it out. That is the 2014 Cedar Park schedule and results. Now here is the 2014 Crosby schedule and results: 2014 Crosby Schedule PF PA Differential MaxPreps Rank Nederland 24 20 4 426 Angleton 38 20 18 145 Barbers Hill 30 7 23 363 Humble 17 10 7 422 Galena Park 62 10 52 851 Kingwood Park 24 14 10 287 Dayton 41 35 6 220 New Caney 24 0 24 491 Porter 39 13 26 747 C.E. King 21 28 -7 88 Cedar Park had 3 losses that year and Crosby had 1. Who had the better regular season? Crosby. Wins matter and Crosby had more of them. But as you know, that isn't the whole story. I wanted a way to apply the numbers that we have and figure out the true value of play. I am a fan so I am not unbiased. And, to me, I can't tell if I am watching a mediocre team stomp a bunch of bad teams or is this team really better than some teams in the past. So this is what I found. Dividing the average point differential by the team's rank on MaxPreps (don't start, it is the number I have and it is easy to find) will give you a power number. This tells more than just W/L. Stomping a bad team will be washed somewhat by the bad teams high ranking number. The lower power number, the better the team has performed. 2014 Cedar Park lost 3 regular season games and handily beat Crosby deep in the playoffs Power number for both? 2014 Cedar Park Worthless Power Number = 17 2014 Crosby Worthless Power Number = 25 And the score showed as much. I got a number for 2017 Crosby and I wanted to compare it with other teams to see where those numbers fell. I didn't have time for all the teams so I was more selective. I pulled up the Playoff Projections off of texasfootball.com. Every top 25 ranked team in the 5A DII bracket prediction got a number. Plus I wanted to do Manvel just to validate the number. Here is the Manvel table. 2017 Manvel Schedule Manvel Score Opponent Score Differential Maxpreps Rank Pearland 45 7 38 91 North Shore 24 21 3 81 FB Willowridge 70 14 56 625 Ball 35 7 28 190 FB Marshall 56 27 29 166 FB Elkins 62 7 55 398 Texas City Santa Fe Galena Park Manvel Averages 49 14 35 259 2017 Manvel WORTHLESS POWER # 7 Whoa. No other team gets close to a 7. Manvel only has 6 games so they could very easily come up some. But their numbers tell me they are whipping most teams (I should do Aledo). They deserve that number. Next up is the ranked teams in the 5A DII predicted bracket. Consolidated has a tough schedule. 2017 AM Consolidated Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Copperas Cove 34 14 20 265 Magnolia 52 47 5 133 Austin 66 0 66 558 College Park 19 13 6 375 Waco 35 31 4 138 Temple 20 28 -8 50 College Station 17 28 -11 63 Bryan 12 3 9 218 University Rudder Team AVG 32 21 11 225 WORTHLESS POWER # 20 Next up is FB Marshall. They took two bad losses that hurt their number. 2017 FB Marshall Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Klein 7 27 -20 112 FB Hightower 20 7 13 300 Galena Park 57 7 50 733 FB Willowridge 77 20 57 625 Manvel 27 56 -29 3 Ball 55 7 48 229 FB Elkins Texas City Sante Fe Team AVG 41 21 20 334 WORTHLESS POWER # 17 College Station took some losses but this isn't that tough of a schedule. 2017 College StationSchedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Westlake 28 35 -7 4 Shoemaker 49 10 39 478 St. Pius 41 58 -17 16 Pflugerville 35 0 35 459 Bryan 35 34 1 218 University 62 14 48 772 A&M Consolidated 28 17 11 97 Rudder 49 14 35 560 Waco Temple Team AVG 41 23 18 326 WORTHLESS POWER # 18 2017 Huntsville Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank China Spring 17 14 3 130 Conroe 41 13 28 636 Tomball Memorial 24 21 3 186 Willis 49 7 42 386 Magnolia 48 24 24 133 Waller 45 7 38 561 Tomball Brenham Magnolia West Team AVG 37 14 23 339 WORTHLESS POWER # 15 PNG hasn't played talented teams but they have stomped the teams they did play. 2017 PNG Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Sterling 55 13 42 234 Lumberton 42 0 42 507 Livingston 56 14 42 1048 Lee 59 21 38 865 Port Arthur Memorial 44 36 8 137 Vidor 42 14 28 269 Beaumont Central Ozen Nederland Team AVG 50 16 33 510 WORTHLESS POWER # 15 I really like Hutto but they are going to run into a tougher schedule coming up. Cedar Park lost their QB so that may get interesting. 2017 Hutto Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Bryan 54 14 40 218 Georgetown 25 23 2 98 Pflugerville Connally 63 28 35 621 Elgin 56 14 42 615 Bastrop 55 13 42 554 East View 56 19 37 451 Rouse Cedar Park Cedar Creek Team AVG 52 19 33 426 WORTHLESS POWER # 13 And that gets us to the 2017 Crosby number. It is higher than I expected. Looking at the quality of opponent and the scores, this team is better than the 2014 team. Does it feel that way? Just by gut feel? Nope. But the numbers say this is a better team: 2017 Crosby Schedule Crosby Score Opponent Score Differential Maxpreps Rank Jasper 42 36 6 151 Barbers Hill 48 32 16 231 Porter 42 35 7 333 LCM 58 14 44 279 Kingwood Park 63 45 18 422 Caney Creek 57 17 40 690 Dayton 69 27 42 454 Splendora Humble New Caney 2017 Season Avg 54 29 25 366 WORTHLESS POWER # 15 And sure, some of these playoff teams will get upended and be at home when we all just knew they would advance. That is the way it is. Will be interesting to see how well this number is predictively. I need to try and get all the numbers for the district. Red Dawn 1 Quote
biaplayer Posted October 23, 2017 Report Posted October 23, 2017 you think PA Memorial Isnt talented, hmmn ok Quote
texbuzz Posted October 23, 2017 Author Report Posted October 23, 2017 @biaplayer I don't "think" PAM is or isn't anything. This is just the data I have found. I didn't run the PAM numbers because they were not in the DII bracket of the Texasfootball.com playoff projections or I just didn't see it. My sincerest apologies. The projections are usually for subscribers and was available but now it is pulled down or behind a paywall. That being said...Ask and ye shall receive: 2017 PA Memorial Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Beaumont Central 35 6 29 370 Ozen 41 0 41 774 Nederland 13 7 6 303 Lumberton 31 19 12 536 Port Neches Groves 36 44 -8 51 Livingston 61 20 41 1055 Lee Vidor 2017 Season Avg 36 16 20 515 WORTHLESS POWER # 26 I called it a "Worthless Power #" because it is a backwards looking number and you never know what might happen. And MaxPreps ranks can be wonky. PAM played a very good PNG team to a -8 differential. And I think it was a competitive game. This number gives credit to that. PNG's higher rank and only losing by 8 points is given credit in the number. The fact is, PAM has a really weak schedule. PNG does too. But PNG is putting up 13 more points per game than PAM. Quote
Red Dawn Posted October 23, 2017 Report Posted October 23, 2017 7 hours ago, texbuzz said: · This will be long. Long story short - If you take the point differential and divide it by the current MaxPreps rank you get a number. The Crosby number is better than I thought. So, for the whole season this year, we have heard about how bad the Crosby defense is playing. Allowing too many points, mistakes. They won't be able to make it far in the playoffs. Hell, I feel that way most times also. But they win. So....how do you quantify that in a meaningful way. With vague statistics!! Look at the table below: 2014 schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Team X 17 21 -4 8 Team X 33 14 19 146 Team X 34 10 24 382 Team X 0 23 -23 438 Team X 31 28 3 112 Team X 41 12 29 524 Team X 34 39 -5 77 Team X 60 14 46 298 Team X 48 31 17 161 Team X 49 21 28 127 Team X 35 21 13 227 I blanked the opponents name but you might be able to figure it out. That is the 2014 Cedar Park schedule and results. Now here is the 2014 Crosby schedule and results: 2014 Crosby Schedule PF PA Differential MaxPreps Rank Nederland 24 20 4 426 Angleton 38 20 18 145 Barbers Hill 30 7 23 363 Humble 17 10 7 422 Galena Park 62 10 52 851 Kingwood Park 24 14 10 287 Dayton 41 35 6 220 New Caney 24 0 24 491 Porter 39 13 26 747 C.E. King 21 28 -7 88 Cedar Park had 3 losses that year and Crosby had 1. Who had the better regular season? Crosby. Wins matter and Crosby had more of them. But as you know, that isn't the whole story. I wanted a way to apply the numbers that we have and figure out the true value of play. I am a fan so I am not unbiased. And, to me, I can't tell if I am watching a mediocre team stomp a bunch of bad teams or is this team really better than some teams in the past. So this is what I found. Dividing the average point differential by the team's rank on MaxPreps (don't start, it is the number I have and it is easy to find) will give you a power number. This tells more than just W/L. Stomping a bad team will be washed somewhat by the bad teams high ranking number. The lower power number, the better the team has performed. 2014 Cedar Park lost 3 regular season games and handily beat Crosby deep in the playoffs Power number for both? 2014 Cedar Park Worthless Power Number = 17 2014 Crosby Worthless Power Number = 25 And the score showed as much. I got a number for 2017 Crosby and I wanted to compare it with other teams to see where those numbers fell. I didn't have time for all the teams so I was more selective. I pulled up the Playoff Projections off of texasfootball.com. Every top 25 ranked team in the 5A DII bracket prediction got a number. Plus I wanted to do Manvel just to validate the number. Here is the Manvel table. 2017 Manvel Schedule Manvel Score Opponent Score Differential Maxpreps Rank Pearland 45 7 38 91 North Shore 24 21 3 81 FB Willowridge 70 14 56 625 Ball 35 7 28 190 FB Marshall 56 27 29 166 FB Elkins 62 7 55 398 Texas City Santa Fe Galena Park Manvel Averages 49 14 35 259 2017 Manvel WORTHLESS POWER # 7 Whoa. No other team gets close to a 7. Manvel only has 6 games so they could very easily come up some. But their numbers tell me they are whipping most teams (I should do Aledo). They deserve that number. Next up is the ranked teams in the 5A DII predicted bracket. Consolidated has a tough schedule. 2017 AM Consolidated Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Copperas Cove 34 14 20 265 Magnolia 52 47 5 133 Austin 66 0 66 558 College Park 19 13 6 375 Waco 35 31 4 138 Temple 20 28 -8 50 College Station 17 28 -11 63 Bryan 12 3 9 218 University Rudder Team AVG 32 21 11 225 WORTHLESS POWER # 20 Next up is FB Marshall. They took two bad losses that hurt their number. 2017 FB Marshall Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Klein 7 27 -20 112 FB Hightower 20 7 13 300 Galena Park 57 7 50 733 FB Willowridge 77 20 57 625 Manvel 27 56 -29 3 Ball 55 7 48 229 FB Elkins Texas City Sante Fe Team AVG 41 21 20 334 WORTHLESS POWER # 17 College Station took some losses but this isn't that tough of a schedule. 2017 College StationSchedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Westlake 28 35 -7 4 Shoemaker 49 10 39 478 St. Pius 41 58 -17 16 Pflugerville 35 0 35 459 Bryan 35 34 1 218 University 62 14 48 772 A&M Consolidated 28 17 11 97 Rudder 49 14 35 560 Waco Temple Team AVG 41 23 18 326 WORTHLESS POWER # 18 2017 Huntsville Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank China Spring 17 14 3 130 Conroe 41 13 28 636 Tomball Memorial 24 21 3 186 Willis 49 7 42 386 Magnolia 48 24 24 133 Waller 45 7 38 561 Tomball Brenham Magnolia West Team AVG 37 14 23 339 WORTHLESS POWER # 15 PNG hasn't played talented teams but they have stomped the teams they did play. 2017 PNG Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Sterling 55 13 42 234 Lumberton 42 0 42 507 Livingston 56 14 42 1048 Lee 59 21 38 865 Port Arthur Memorial 44 36 8 137 Vidor 42 14 28 269 Beaumont Central Ozen Nederland Team AVG 50 16 33 510 WORTHLESS POWER # 15 I really like Hutto but they are going to run into a tougher schedule coming up. Cedar Park lost their QB so that may get interesting. 2017 Hutto Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank Bryan 54 14 40 218 Georgetown 25 23 2 98 Pflugerville Connally 63 28 35 621 Elgin 56 14 42 615 Bastrop 55 13 42 554 East View 56 19 37 451 Rouse Cedar Park Cedar Creek Team AVG 52 19 33 426 WORTHLESS POWER # 13 And that gets us to the 2017 Crosby number. It is higher than I expected. Looking at the quality of opponent and the scores, this team is better than the 2014 team. Does it feel that way? Just by gut feel? Nope. But the numbers say this is a better team: 2017 Crosby Schedule Crosby Score Opponent Score Differential Maxpreps Rank Jasper 42 36 6 151 Barbers Hill 48 32 16 231 Porter 42 35 7 333 LCM 58 14 44 279 Kingwood Park 63 45 18 422 Caney Creek 57 17 40 690 Dayton 69 27 42 454 Splendora Humble New Caney 2017 Season Avg 54 29 25 366 WORTHLESS POWER # 15 And sure, some of these playoff teams will get upended and be at home when we all just knew they would advance. That is the way it is. Will be interesting to see how well this number is predictively. I need to try and get all the numbers for the district. Nice work Quote
biaplayer Posted October 23, 2017 Report Posted October 23, 2017 they aren't my team but I just couldn't imagine where you were going with that. I don't put any stock into rankings myself, I just like to see them settle it on the field. I think both PNG and PAM are the cream of the crop in our district which is a weak district by my standards. With That being said, come playoff time that is when you start seeing some real teams in the second and third round, by then you have a good idea as to where you stand. Quote
texbuzz Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Posted October 24, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 9:14 AM, biaplayer said: they aren't my team but I just couldn't imagine where you were going with that. I don't put any stock into rankings myself, I just like to see them settle it on the field. I think both PNG and PAM are the cream of the crop in our district which is a weak district by my standards. With That being said, come playoff time that is when you start seeing some real teams in the second and third round, by then you have a good idea as to where you stand. I think the rankings could be improved. And according to the rankings that district is weak. Playoff wins are certainly the ultimate decider, in my opinion. What are you saving for? It's win or go home. You win, you are better. Period. Every other excuse and reason and cop out doesn't matter to me. Better teams advance. But wait until the playoffs.....watch these losing fans say "you won this game BUT the refs, injuries...whatever." All of it is just talk. Better teams advance. If my worthless power number is correct....Hutto should win the region (area..I can't remember what you call this group). Quote
Clueless Posted October 24, 2017 Report Posted October 24, 2017 I was in Austin last week and the radio station I was listening to was hyping up Hutto. Their QB is suppose to be really good, don't remember his name, but I think he's thrown close to 20 TD's and 1 int. They sounded like Hutto might be the team to beat in Central Texas. Not sure if they're D1 or 2 come playoffs. Quote
Bigdog Posted October 24, 2017 Report Posted October 24, 2017 All that and probably a second round exit again.... Quote
NHSBulldogFan Posted October 24, 2017 Report Posted October 24, 2017 5 hours ago, TradenupBH said: I was in Austin last week and the radio station I was listening to was hyping up Hutto. Their QB is suppose to be really good, don't remember his name, but I think he's thrown close to 20 TD's and 1 int. They sounded like Hutto might be the team to beat in Central Texas. Not sure if they're D1 or 2 come playoffs. QB you're talking about is Chase Griffin he's a junior and he's thrown for about 2200 yards this year through 7 games might meet up with Crosby if they can break the second round jinx. Quote
CCRed Posted October 24, 2017 Report Posted October 24, 2017 1 hour ago, bigdog said: All that and probably a second round exit again.... I've said it before and I'll say it again, better than one and done or no playoffs at ALL ! prepballfan 1 Quote
Bigdog Posted October 26, 2017 Report Posted October 26, 2017 On 10/24/2017 at 6:28 PM, CCRed said: I've said it before and I'll say it again, better than one and done or no playoffs at ALL ! Are you saying in general or was that directed at Nederland? Quote
CCRed Posted October 26, 2017 Report Posted October 26, 2017 On 10/24/2017 at 4:55 PM, bigdog said: All that and probably a second round exit again.... Are you saying that in general, or is that directed at Crosby ? Quote
CCRed Posted October 26, 2017 Report Posted October 26, 2017 43 minutes ago, bigdog said: Are you saying in general or was that directed at Nederland? I'm just saying that an exit after the 2nd round is better than an exit after the 1st or not making the playoffs at all. If your team falls into that category over the last few years, I wouldn't knock a team that has done better. Quote
Bigdog Posted October 27, 2017 Report Posted October 27, 2017 7 hours ago, CCRed said: I'm just saying that an exit after the 2nd round is better than an exit after the 1st or not making the playoffs at all. If your team falls into that category over the last few years, I wouldn't knock a team that has done better. They don't really. Ned has missed the playoffs only twice in the last 20 years and have made multiple runs in the playoffs Quote
Cougar14.2 Posted October 27, 2017 Report Posted October 27, 2017 9 hours ago, bigdog said: They don't really. Ned has missed the playoffs only twice in the last 20 years and have made multiple runs in the playoffs TexBuzz does all that work to provide some actual thought provoking information to the board, never said a coarse word about anybody in your district, and all you can muster for a response as a moderator is "All that and probably another second round exit."? Then somebody else makes a point about Nederland and you reply about them making runs? I'd imagine what you meant to say is Nederland has only made it past the second round twice in the last 14 years when they had Deshaun Washington. You should've also thrown in that in the last decade Nederland has missed the playoffs or lost in the first round 6 times, including as the district champion to 4th place Kingwood Park. You will also lose in the first round again this year to Jim Holley and Porter like you did the last time you faced him at KP. That's what I call the definition of mediocre versus the boat you try to put Crosby in for losing one first round game the last decade. Crazy that as a moderator you even felt the need to get on a Crosby thread give a myopic response to a new, solid poster, that brings research and data to the "Everybody gets a trophy" board. Quote
AggiesAreWe Posted October 27, 2017 Report Posted October 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, Cougar14.2 said: TexBuzz does all that work to provide some actual thought provoking information to the board, never said a coarse word about anybody in your district, and all you can muster for a response as a moderator is "All that and probably another second round exit."? Then somebody else makes a point about Nederland and you reply about them making runs? I'd imagine what you meant to say is Nederland has only made it past the second round twice in the last 14 years when they had Deshaun Washington. You should've also thrown in that in the last decade Nederland has missed the playoffs or lost in the first round 6 times, including as the district champion to 4th place Kingwood Park. You will also lose in the first round again this year to Jim Holley and Porter like you did the last time you faced him at KP. That's what I call the definition of mediocre versus the boat you try to put Crosby in for losing one first round game the last decade. Crazy that as a moderator you even felt the need to get on a Crosby thread give a myopic response to a new, solid poster, that brings research and data to the "Everybody gets a trophy" board. Done yet? Quote
Bigdog Posted October 27, 2017 Report Posted October 27, 2017 36 minutes ago, Cougar14.2 said: TexBuzz does all that work to provide some actual thought provoking information to the board, never said a coarse word about anybody in your district, and all you can muster for a response as a moderator is "All that and probably another second round exit."? Then somebody else makes a point about Nederland and you reply about them making runs? I'd imagine what you meant to say is Nederland has only made it past the second round twice in the last 14 years when they had Deshaun Washington. You should've also thrown in that in the last decade Nederland has missed the playoffs or lost in the first round 6 times, including as the district champion to 4th place Kingwood Park. You will also lose in the first round again this year to Jim Holley and Porter like you did the last time you faced him at KP. That's what I call the definition of mediocre versus the boat you try to put Crosby in for losing one first round game the last decade. Crazy that as a moderator you even felt the need to get on a Crosby thread give a myopic response to a new, solid poster, that brings research and data to the "Everybody gets a trophy" board. Funny how you choose to only include the years when Crosby was making noise and not all of the mediocre years before when they were sitting at home. Nederland was in the playoffs and making third round trips consistently when Crosby was doing good to get three or four wins. Kinda hard to win or lose a playoff game when your not there. Quote
CCRed Posted October 27, 2017 Report Posted October 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, bigdog said: Funny how you choose to only include the years when Crosby was making noise and not all of the mediocre years before when they were sitting at home. Nederland was in the playoffs and making third round trips consistently when Crosby was doing good to get three or four wins. Kinda hard to win or lose a playoff game when your not there. That was exactly my point. Where was Nederland last year BigDog. On the porch ? Quote
Bigdog Posted October 27, 2017 Report Posted October 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, CCRed said: That was exactly my point. Where was Nederland last year BigDog. On the porch ? For only the second time in 20 years yeah. Quote
HurricaneCal Posted October 27, 2017 Report Posted October 27, 2017 56 minutes ago, AggiesAreWe said: Done yet? Again, this! Quote
HurricaneCal Posted October 27, 2017 Report Posted October 27, 2017 29 minutes ago, CCRed said: That was exactly my point. Where was Nederland last year BigDog. On the porch ? They won it all in like 57, do take that! Quote
AggiesAreWe Posted October 27, 2017 Report Posted October 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, CougarCal said: Again, this! He said it, not me. You make those kind of posts, you will catch flack. Quote
Michele Posted October 27, 2017 Report Posted October 27, 2017 How old are y'all? That's a lot of bickering for mature adults in my opinion, anyways ... good luck Crosby! Quote
Cougar14.2 Posted October 27, 2017 Report Posted October 27, 2017 2 hours ago, bigdog said: Funny how you choose to only include the years when Crosby was making noise and not all of the mediocre years before when they were sitting at home. Nederland was in the playoffs and making third round trips consistently when Crosby was doing good to get three or four wins. Kinda hard to win or lose a playoff game when your not there. It's even funnier how you point to what kids did that are almost 40 years old now, none of the current kids on the team were even alive then. I guess when you play in the same stadium that's relevant though. Anybody that looks knows Ned had those four good years in the late 90's and the early 2000's when they first hired Neumann and have been pretty meh since, besides the three years with Washington. All you would have to do to find out where the programs are now is ask any coach with options where he would rather coach. Crosby and Nederland are currently two programs with completely different ceilings. Quote
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