Crunching some numbers for this years teams (and some history)

[texbuzz]

·        This will be long.

Long story short - If you take the point differential and divide it by the current MaxPreps rank you get a number.  The Crosby number is better than I thought.  

So, for the whole season this year, we have heard about how bad the Crosby defense is playing.  Allowing too many points, mistakes.  They won't be able to make it far in the playoffs.  Hell, I feel that way most times also.  But they win.  So....how do you quantify that in a meaningful way.  

With vague statistics!!

Look at the table below:

2014 schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Team X	17	21	-4	8
Team X	33	14	19	146
Team X	34	10	24	382
Team X	0	23	-23	438
Team X	31	28	3	112
Team X	41	12	29	524
Team X	34	39	-5	77
Team X	60	14	46	298
Team X	48	31	17	161
Team X	49	21	28	127
Team X	35	21	13	227

I blanked the opponents name but you might be able to figure it out. 

That is the 2014 Cedar Park schedule and results.  

Now here is the 2014 Crosby schedule and results:

2014 Crosby Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	MaxPreps Rank
Nederland	24	20	4	426
Angleton	38	20	18	145
Barbers Hill	30	7	23	363
Humble	17	10	7	422
Galena Park	62	10	52	851
Kingwood Park	24	14	10	287
Dayton	41	35	6	220
New Caney	24	0	24	491
Porter	39	13	26	747
C.E. King	21	28	-7	88

 

Cedar Park had 3 losses that year and Crosby had 1.  Who had the better regular season?  Crosby.  Wins matter and Crosby had more of them.  But as you know, that isn't the whole story.  I wanted a way to apply the numbers that we have and figure out the true value of play.  I am a fan so I am not unbiased.  And, to me, I can't tell if I am watching a mediocre team stomp a bunch of bad teams or is this team really better than some teams in the past.  So this is what I found.

Dividing the average point differential by the team's rank on MaxPreps (don't start, it is the number I have and it is easy to find) will give you a power number.  This tells more than just W/L.  Stomping a bad team will be washed somewhat by the bad teams high ranking number.  The lower power number, the better the team has performed.

2014 Cedar Park lost 3 regular season games and handily beat Crosby deep in the playoffs  Power number for both?  

2014 Cedar Park Worthless Power Number = 17

2014 Crosby Worthless Power Number = 25

And the score showed as much.  I got a number for 2017 Crosby and I wanted to compare it with other teams to see where those numbers fell.  I didn't have time for all the teams so I was more selective.  

I pulled up the Playoff Projections off of texasfootball.com.  Every top 25 ranked team in the 5A DII bracket prediction got a number.  Plus I wanted to do Manvel just to validate the number.  Here is the Manvel table.  

2017 Manvel Schedule	Manvel Score	Opponent Score	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Pearland	45	7	38	91
North Shore	24	21	3	81
FB Willowridge	70	14	56	625
Ball	35	7	28	190
FB Marshall	56	27	29	166
FB Elkins	62	7	55	398
Texas City
Santa Fe
Galena Park
Manvel Averages	49	14	35	259
2017 Manvel WORTHLESS POWER #			7

 

Whoa.  No other team gets close to a 7.  Manvel only has 6 games so they could very easily come up some.  But their numbers tell me they are whipping most teams (I should do Aledo).  They deserve that number.

Next up is the ranked teams in the 5A DII predicted bracket.  

Consolidated has a tough schedule.  

2017 AM Consolidated Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Copperas Cove	34	14	20	265
Magnolia	52	47	5	133
Austin	66	0	66	558
College Park	19	13	6	375
Waco	35	31	4	138
Temple	20	28	-8	50
College Station	17	28	-11	63
Bryan	12	3	9	218
University
Rudder
Team AVG	32	21	11	225
WORTHLESS POWER #			20

 

Next up is FB Marshall.  They took two bad losses that hurt their number.  

2017 FB Marshall Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Klein	7	27	-20	112
FB Hightower	20	7	13	300
Galena Park	57	7	50	733
FB Willowridge	77	20	57	625
Manvel	27	56	-29	3
Ball	55	7	48	229
FB Elkins
Texas City
Sante Fe
Team AVG	41	21	20	334
WORTHLESS POWER #			17

 

College Station took some losses but this isn't that tough of a schedule.

2017  College StationSchedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Westlake	28	35	-7	4
Shoemaker	49	10	39	478
St. Pius	41	58	-17	16
Pflugerville	35	0	35	459
Bryan	35	34	1	218
University	62	14	48	772
A&M Consolidated	28	17	11	97
Rudder	49	14	35	560
Waco
Temple
Team AVG	41	23	18	326
WORTHLESS POWER #			18

 

2017  Huntsville Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
China Spring	17	14	3	130
Conroe	41	13	28	636
Tomball Memorial	24	21	3	186
Willis	49	7	42	386
Magnolia	48	24	24	133
Waller	45	7	38	561
Tomball
Brenham
Magnolia West
Team AVG	37	14	23	339
WORTHLESS POWER #			15

 

PNG hasn't played talented teams but they have stomped the teams they did play.

2017  PNG Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Sterling	55	13	42	234
Lumberton	42	0	42	507
Livingston	56	14	42	1048
Lee	59	21	38	865
Port Arthur Memorial	44	36	8	137
Vidor	42	14	28	269
Beaumont Central
Ozen
Nederland
Team AVG	50	16	33	510
WORTHLESS POWER #			15

 

I really like Hutto but they are going to run into a tougher schedule coming up.  Cedar Park lost their QB so that may get interesting.

2017 Hutto Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Bryan	54	14	40	218
Georgetown	25	23	2	98
Pflugerville Connally	63	28	35	621
Elgin	56	14	42	615
Bastrop	55	13	42	554
East View	56	19	37	451
Rouse
Cedar Park
Cedar Creek
Team AVG	52	19	33	426
WORTHLESS POWER #			13

 

And that gets us to the 2017 Crosby number.  It is higher than I expected.  Looking at the quality of opponent and the scores, this team is better than the 2014 team.  Does it feel that way?  Just by gut feel?  Nope.  But the numbers say this is a better team:

2017 Crosby Schedule	Crosby Score	Opponent Score	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Jasper	42	36	6	151
Barbers Hill	48	32	16	231
Porter	42	35	7	333
LCM	58	14	44	279
Kingwood Park	63	45	18	422
Caney Creek	57	17	40	690
Dayton	69	27	42	454
Splendora
Humble
New Caney
2017 Season Avg	54	29	25	366
WORTHLESS POWER #			15

 

And sure, some of these playoff teams will get upended and be at home when we all just knew they would advance.  That is the way it is.  Will be interesting to see how well this number is predictively. 

 

I need to try and get all the numbers for the district.

 

[biaplayer]

you think PA Memorial Isnt talented, hmmn ok

[texbuzz]

@biaplayer  I don't "think" PAM is or isn't anything.  This is just the data I have found. 

I didn't run the PAM numbers because they were not in the DII bracket of the Texasfootball.com playoff projections or I just didn't see it.  My sincerest apologies.  The projections are usually for subscribers and was available but now it is pulled down or behind a paywall.  That being said...Ask and ye shall receive:

2017 PA Memorial Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Beaumont Central	35	6	29	370
Ozen	41	0	41	774
Nederland	13	7	6	303
Lumberton	31	19	12	536
Port Neches Groves	36	44	-8	51
Livingston	61	20	41	1055
Lee
Vidor
2017 Season Avg	36	16	20	515
WORTHLESS POWER #			26

 

I called it a "Worthless Power #" because it is a backwards looking number and you never know what might happen.  And MaxPreps ranks can be wonky.  

PAM played a very good PNG team to a -8 differential.  And I think it was a competitive game.  This number gives credit to that.  PNG's higher rank and only losing by 8 points is given credit in the number.  

The fact is, PAM has a really weak schedule.  PNG does too.  But PNG is putting up 13 more points per game than PAM.  

[Red Dawn]

7 hours ago, texbuzz said:

·        This will be long.

Long story short - If you take the point differential and divide it by the current MaxPreps rank you get a number.  The Crosby number is better than I thought.  

So, for the whole season this year, we have heard about how bad the Crosby defense is playing.  Allowing too many points, mistakes.  They won't be able to make it far in the playoffs.  Hell, I feel that way most times also.  But they win.  So....how do you quantify that in a meaningful way.  

With vague statistics!!

Look at the table below:

2014 schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Team X	17	21	-4	8
Team X	33	14	19	146
Team X	34	10	24	382
Team X	0	23	-23	438
Team X	31	28	3	112
Team X	41	12	29	524
Team X	34	39	-5	77
Team X	60	14	46	298
Team X	48	31	17	161
Team X	49	21	28	127
Team X	35	21	13	227

I blanked the opponents name but you might be able to figure it out. 

That is the 2014 Cedar Park schedule and results.  

Now here is the 2014 Crosby schedule and results:

2014 Crosby Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	MaxPreps Rank
Nederland	24	20	4	426
Angleton	38	20	18	145
Barbers Hill	30	7	23	363
Humble	17	10	7	422
Galena Park	62	10	52	851
Kingwood Park	24	14	10	287
Dayton	41	35	6	220
New Caney	24	0	24	491
Porter	39	13	26	747
C.E. King	21	28	-7	88

 

Cedar Park had 3 losses that year and Crosby had 1.  Who had the better regular season?  Crosby.  Wins matter and Crosby had more of them.  But as you know, that isn't the whole story.  I wanted a way to apply the numbers that we have and figure out the true value of play.  I am a fan so I am not unbiased.  And, to me, I can't tell if I am watching a mediocre team stomp a bunch of bad teams or is this team really better than some teams in the past.  So this is what I found.

Dividing the average point differential by the team's rank on MaxPreps (don't start, it is the number I have and it is easy to find) will give you a power number.  This tells more than just W/L.  Stomping a bad team will be washed somewhat by the bad teams high ranking number.  The lower power number, the better the team has performed.

2014 Cedar Park lost 3 regular season games and handily beat Crosby deep in the playoffs  Power number for both?  

2014 Cedar Park Worthless Power Number = 17

2014 Crosby Worthless Power Number = 25

And the score showed as much.  I got a number for 2017 Crosby and I wanted to compare it with other teams to see where those numbers fell.  I didn't have time for all the teams so I was more selective.  

I pulled up the Playoff Projections off of texasfootball.com.  Every top 25 ranked team in the 5A DII bracket prediction got a number.  Plus I wanted to do Manvel just to validate the number.  Here is the Manvel table.  

2017 Manvel Schedule	Manvel Score	Opponent Score	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Pearland	45	7	38	91
North Shore	24	21	3	81
FB Willowridge	70	14	56	625
Ball	35	7	28	190
FB Marshall	56	27	29	166
FB Elkins	62	7	55	398
Texas City
Santa Fe
Galena Park
Manvel Averages	49	14	35	259
2017 Manvel WORTHLESS POWER #			7

 

Whoa.  No other team gets close to a 7.  Manvel only has 6 games so they could very easily come up some.  But their numbers tell me they are whipping most teams (I should do Aledo).  They deserve that number.

Next up is the ranked teams in the 5A DII predicted bracket.  

Consolidated has a tough schedule.  

2017 AM Consolidated Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Copperas Cove	34	14	20	265
Magnolia	52	47	5	133
Austin	66	0	66	558
College Park	19	13	6	375
Waco	35	31	4	138
Temple	20	28	-8	50
College Station	17	28	-11	63
Bryan	12	3	9	218
University
Rudder
Team AVG	32	21	11	225
WORTHLESS POWER #			20

 

Next up is FB Marshall.  They took two bad losses that hurt their number.  

2017 FB Marshall Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Klein	7	27	-20	112
FB Hightower	20	7	13	300
Galena Park	57	7	50	733
FB Willowridge	77	20	57	625
Manvel	27	56	-29	3
Ball	55	7	48	229
FB Elkins
Texas City
Sante Fe
Team AVG	41	21	20	334
WORTHLESS POWER #			17

 

College Station took some losses but this isn't that tough of a schedule.

2017  College StationSchedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Westlake	28	35	-7	4
Shoemaker	49	10	39	478
St. Pius	41	58	-17	16
Pflugerville	35	0	35	459
Bryan	35	34	1	218
University	62	14	48	772
A&M Consolidated	28	17	11	97
Rudder	49	14	35	560
Waco
Temple
Team AVG	41	23	18	326
WORTHLESS POWER #			18

 

2017  Huntsville Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
China Spring	17	14	3	130
Conroe	41	13	28	636
Tomball Memorial	24	21	3	186
Willis	49	7	42	386
Magnolia	48	24	24	133
Waller	45	7	38	561
Tomball
Brenham
Magnolia West
Team AVG	37	14	23	339
WORTHLESS POWER #			15

 

PNG hasn't played talented teams but they have stomped the teams they did play.

2017  PNG Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Sterling	55	13	42	234
Lumberton	42	0	42	507
Livingston	56	14	42	1048
Lee	59	21	38	865
Port Arthur Memorial	44	36	8	137
Vidor	42	14	28	269
Beaumont Central
Ozen
Nederland
Team AVG	50	16	33	510
WORTHLESS POWER #			15

 

I really like Hutto but they are going to run into a tougher schedule coming up.  Cedar Park lost their QB so that may get interesting.

2017 Hutto Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Bryan	54	14	40	218
Georgetown	25	23	2	98
Pflugerville Connally	63	28	35	621
Elgin	56	14	42	615
Bastrop	55	13	42	554
East View	56	19	37	451
Rouse
Cedar Park
Cedar Creek
Team AVG	52	19	33	426
WORTHLESS POWER #			13

 

And that gets us to the 2017 Crosby number.  It is higher than I expected.  Looking at the quality of opponent and the scores, this team is better than the 2014 team.  Does it feel that way?  Just by gut feel?  Nope.  But the numbers say this is a better team:

2017 Crosby Schedule	Crosby Score	Opponent Score	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Jasper	42	36	6	151
Barbers Hill	48	32	16	231
Porter	42	35	7	333
LCM	58	14	44	279
Kingwood Park	63	45	18	422
Caney Creek	57	17	40	690
Dayton	69	27	42	454
Splendora
Humble
New Caney
2017 Season Avg	54	29	25	366
WORTHLESS POWER #			15

 

And sure, some of these playoff teams will get upended and be at home when we all just knew they would advance.  That is the way it is.  Will be interesting to see how well this number is predictively. 

 

I need to try and get all the numbers for the district.

 

Nice work

[biaplayer]

they aren't my team but I just couldn't imagine where you were going with that. I don't put any stock into rankings myself, I just like to see them settle it on the field. I think both PNG and PAM are the cream of the crop in our district which is a weak district by my standards. With That being said, come playoff time that is when you start seeing some real teams in the second and third round, by then you have a good idea as to where you stand.

[texbuzz]

On 10/23/2017 at 9:14 AM, biaplayer said:

they aren't my team but I just couldn't imagine where you were going with that. I don't put any stock into rankings myself, I just like to see them settle it on the field. I think both PNG and PAM are the cream of the crop in our district which is a weak district by my standards. With That being said, come playoff time that is when you start seeing some real teams in the second and third round, by then you have a good idea as to where you stand.

I think the rankings could be improved.  And according to the rankings that district is weak.  

Playoff wins are certainly the ultimate decider, in my opinion.  What are you saving for?  It's win or go home.  You win, you are better.  Period.  Every other excuse and reason and cop out doesn't matter to me. 

Better teams advance. 

But wait until the playoffs.....watch these losing fans say "you won this game BUT the refs, injuries...whatever."  All of it is just talk. 

Better teams advance.  

If my worthless power number is correct....Hutto should win the region (area..I can't remember what you call this group).

[biaplayer]

we shall see

[Clueless]

I was in Austin last week and the radio station I was listening to was hyping up Hutto. Their QB is suppose to be really good, don't remember his name, but I think he's thrown close to 20 TD's and 1 int. They sounded like Hutto might be the team to beat in Central Texas. Not sure if they're D1 or 2 come playoffs.

[Bigdog]

All that and probably a second round exit again....

[NHSBulldogFan]

5 hours ago, TradenupBH said:

I was in Austin last week and the radio station I was listening to was hyping up Hutto. Their QB is suppose to be really good, don't remember his name, but I think he's thrown close to 20 TD's and 1 int. They sounded like Hutto might be the team to beat in Central Texas. Not sure if they're D1 or 2 come playoffs.

QB you're talking about is Chase Griffin he's a junior and he's thrown for about 2200 yards this year through 7 games might meet up with Crosby if they can break the second round jinx.

[CCRed]

1 hour ago, bigdog said:

All that and probably a second round exit again....

I've said it before and I'll say it again, better than one and done or no playoffs at ALL ! 

 

[Bigdog]

On 10/24/2017 at 6:28 PM, CCRed said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again, better than one and done or no playoffs at ALL ! 

 

Are you saying in general or was that directed at Nederland?

[CCRed]

On 10/24/2017 at 4:55 PM, bigdog said:

All that and probably a second round exit again....

Are you saying that in general, or is that directed at Crosby ?

[CCRed]

43 minutes ago, bigdog said:

Are you saying in general or was that directed at Nederland?

I'm just saying that an exit after the 2nd round is better than an exit after the 1st or not making the playoffs at all. If your team falls into that category over the last few years, I wouldn't knock a team that has done better. 

[Bigdog]

7 hours ago, CCRed said:

I'm just saying that an exit after the 2nd round is better than an exit after the 1st or not making the playoffs at all. If your team falls into that category over the last few years, I wouldn't knock a team that has done better. 

They don't really.  Ned has missed the playoffs only twice in the last 20 years and  have made multiple runs in the playoffs 

[Cougar14.2]

9 hours ago, bigdog said:

They don't really.  Ned has missed the playoffs only twice in the last 20 years and  have made multiple runs in the playoffs 

TexBuzz does all that work to provide some actual thought provoking information to the board, never said a coarse word about anybody in your district, and all you can muster for a response as a moderator is "All that and probably another second round exit."? Then somebody else makes a point about Nederland and you reply about them making runs?

I'd imagine what you meant to say is Nederland has only made it past the second round twice in the last 14 years when they had Deshaun Washington. You should've also thrown in that in the last decade Nederland has missed the playoffs or lost in the first round 6 times, including as the district champion to 4th place Kingwood Park. You will also lose in the first round again this year to Jim Holley and Porter like you did the last time you faced him at KP. That's what I call the definition of mediocre versus the boat you try to put Crosby in for losing one first round game the last decade. Crazy that as a moderator you even felt the need to get on a Crosby thread give a myopic response to a new, solid poster, that brings research and data to the "Everybody gets a trophy" board.

[AggiesAreWe]

11 minutes ago, Cougar14.2 said:

TexBuzz does all that work to provide some actual thought provoking information to the board, never said a coarse word about anybody in your district, and all you can muster for a response as a moderator is "All that and probably another second round exit."? Then somebody else makes a point about Nederland and you reply about them making runs?

I'd imagine what you meant to say is Nederland has only made it past the second round twice in the last 14 years when they had Deshaun Washington. You should've also thrown in that in the last decade Nederland has missed the playoffs or lost in the first round 6 times, including as the district champion to 4th place Kingwood Park. You will also lose in the first round again this year to Jim Holley and Porter like you did the last time you faced him at KP. That's what I call the definition of mediocre versus the boat you try to put Crosby in for losing one first round game the last decade. Crazy that as a moderator you even felt the need to get on a Crosby thread give a myopic response to a new, solid poster, that brings research and data to the "Everybody gets a trophy" board.

Done yet?

[Bigdog]

36 minutes ago, Cougar14.2 said:

TexBuzz does all that work to provide some actual thought provoking information to the board, never said a coarse word about anybody in your district, and all you can muster for a response as a moderator is "All that and probably another second round exit."? Then somebody else makes a point about Nederland and you reply about them making runs?

I'd imagine what you meant to say is Nederland has only made it past the second round twice in the last 14 years when they had Deshaun Washington. You should've also thrown in that in the last decade Nederland has missed the playoffs or lost in the first round 6 times, including as the district champion to 4th place Kingwood Park. You will also lose in the first round again this year to Jim Holley and Porter like you did the last time you faced him at KP. That's what I call the definition of mediocre versus the boat you try to put Crosby in for losing one first round game the last decade. Crazy that as a moderator you even felt the need to get on a Crosby thread give a myopic response to a new, solid poster, that brings research and data to the "Everybody gets a trophy" board.

Funny how you choose to only include the years when Crosby was making noise and not all of the mediocre years before when they were sitting at home.  Nederland was in the playoffs and making third round trips  consistently when Crosby was doing good to get three or four wins. Kinda hard to win or lose a playoff game when your not there.

[CCRed]

5 minutes ago, bigdog said:

Funny how you choose to only include the years when Crosby was making noise and not all of the mediocre years before when they were sitting at home.  Nederland was in the playoffs and making third round trips  consistently when Crosby was doing good to get three or four wins. Kinda hard to win or lose a playoff game when your not there.

That was exactly my point. Where was Nederland last year BigDog. On the porch ?

[Bigdog]

4 minutes ago, CCRed said:

That was exactly my point. Where was Nederland last year BigDog. On the porch ?

For only the second time in 20 years yeah.

[HurricaneCal]

56 minutes ago, AggiesAreWe said:

Done yet?

Again, this!

[HurricaneCal]

29 minutes ago, CCRed said:

That was exactly my point. Where was Nederland last year BigDog. On the porch ?

They won it all in like 57, do take that!

[AggiesAreWe]

4 minutes ago, CougarCal said:

Again, this!

He said it, not me.

You make those kind of posts, you will catch flack.

[Michele]

How old are y'all?  That's a lot of bickering for mature adults in my opinion, anyways ... good luck Crosby!

[Cougar14.2]

2 hours ago, bigdog said:

Funny how you choose to only include the years when Crosby was making noise and not all of the mediocre years before when they were sitting at home.  Nederland was in the playoffs and making third round trips  consistently when Crosby was doing good to get three or four wins. Kinda hard to win or lose a playoff game when your not there.

It's even funnier how you point to what kids did that are almost 40 years old now, none of the current kids on the team were even alive then. I guess when you play in the same stadium that's relevant though. Anybody that looks knows Ned had those four good years in the late 90's and the early 2000's when they first hired Neumann and have been pretty meh since, besides the three years with Washington. All you would have to do to find out where the programs are now is ask any coach with options where he would rather coach. Crosby and Nederland are currently two programs with completely different ceilings.