New Caney at Crosby

[Lightning/Eagle]

With New Caney's win tonight against Porter it puts the Eagles back into having a shot at the District title. It will certainly be tough, especially being on the road. New Caney will need to win the turnover battle and play their best game of the year to have a real chance. High School scoreboard tonight mentioned Crosby as having a real chance to come out of region lll.

 

[bulldawg64]

this is a game i like to see but i will be elsewhere

 

[Eagle Nation]

New Caney will not stand a chance against Crosby. Just sayin

[CCRed]

3 hours ago, Eagle Nation said:

New Caney will not stand a chance against Crosby. Just sayin

You never know.  Crosby has several players out hurt.  Williams left early in the third quarter this week with his arm in a sling. Crosby has already clinched a share of the district championship. The game really doesn't matter, but I'm sure both teams aren't looking at it like that.

[songone]

4 hours ago, Eagle Nation said:

New Caney will not stand a chance against Crosby. Just sayin

I agree... Crosby by 28+! Only thing that will save a big time blowout is garbage time TD's.

[Eagle Nation]

I believe that Crosby will want to go undefeated in district and will play to win. Even with 2nd teamers, I believe they are a better team than NC.

[Lightning/Eagle]

1 hour ago, Eagle Nation said:

I believe that Crosby will want to go undefeated in district and will play to win. Even with 2nd teamers, I believe they are a better team than NC.

Wow, hope you’re basing this off the BH game.

[ScubaSteve]

19 hours ago, Lightning/Eagle said:

With New Caney's win tonight against Porter it puts the Eagles back into having a shot at the District title. It will certainly be tough, especially being on the road. New Caney will need to win the turnover battle and play their best game of the year to have a real chance. High School scoreboard tonight mentioned Crosby as having a real chance to come out of region lll.

 

Oh how I hope that happens (Region III) but I don’t see us getting past FBM. They are freaking fast. 

[The Icon]

Seen em both

Crosby by at least 10

[Jackthehammer]

Crosby is not near the Crosby of old. Defensively they are not doing well enough to go very far. Offensively they are slinging some crazy numbers. I have a sneaky suspicion that it is partially to the fact that 21-5A is down from what they usually are. Even with Crosby's team being short of what they usually are they still will win this game. 

[Cougtalk]

3 hours ago, Jackthehammer said:

Crosby is not near the Crosby of old. Defensively they are not doing well enough to go very far. Offensively they are slinging some crazy numbers. I have a sneaky suspicion that it is partially to the fact that 21-5A is down from what they usually are. Even with Crosby's team being short of what they usually are they still will win this game. 

Here is a tell tale sign that this person hasn’t seen this offense. This is by far the most explosive and consistent offense crosby has had at least since 04. The defense is not very good but this notion that this offense is “down” is possibly the dumbest statement made on these boards this year. 

[Cougtalk]

The question is craigs avaliability in my opinion. If this game doesn’t effect playoff seed i expect a large dose of solis this week and thats gonna be pretty brutal on NC lb core because that kid is a bttering ram. I don’t think NC has an answer for the passing game if Woodard is back i predict our offense will move it well even if craig isn’t in the game.

[CCRed]

35 minutes ago, Cougtalk said:

The question is craigs avaliability in my opinion. If this game doesn’t effect playoff seed i expect a large dose of solis this week and thats gonna be pretty brutal on NC lb core because that kid is a bttering ram. I don’t think NC has an answer for the passing game if Woodard is back i predict our offense will move it well even if craig isn’t in the game.

I don't see Craig or Woodard playing in this game.  Just my opinion.

[Football Freak]

I have seen both teams play this year... Crosby by 2+ TD's.

[texbuzz]

On 11/5/2017 at 10:56 AM, Jackthehammer said:

Crosby is not near the Crosby of old. Defensively they are not doing well enough to go very far. Offensively they are slinging some crazy numbers. I have a sneaky suspicion that it is partially to the fact that 21-5A is down from what they usually are. Even with Crosby's team being short of what they usually are they still will win this game. 

I addressed this elsewhere.  Factoring in strength of opponent and point differential, the 2017 Crosby Football team is better than the 2014 Crosby Football Team that was one game away from a State Title game.  The lower the number at the bottom the better.  For reference, Manvel had a "7" a couple weeks ago.  I need to refresh the numbers.

2017 Crosby Schedule	Crosby Score	Opponent Score	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Jasper	42	36	6	167
Barbers Hill	48	32	16	163
Porter	42	35	7	344
LCM	58	14	44	305
Kingwood Park	63	45	18	287
Caney Creek	57	17	40	732
Dayton	69	27	42	458
Splendora	38	20	18	599
Humble	59	20	39	671
New Caney
2017 Season Avg	53	27	26	414
Power # Based on Diff and OPP Strength			16

 

2014 Crosby Schedule	Crosby Score	Opponent Score	Differential	Final Maxpreps Rank
Nederland	24	20	4	426
Angleton	38	20	18	145
Barbers Hill	30	7	23	363
Humble	17	10	7	422
Galena Park	62	10	52	851
Kingwood Park	24	14	10	287
Dayton	41	35	6	220
New Caney	24	0	24	491
Porter	39	13	26	747
C.E. King	21	28	-7	88
Team AVG	32	16	16	404
Power # Based on Diff and OPP Strength			25

 

 

[Cougar14.2]

On 11/5/2017 at 2:33 PM, Cougtalk said:

Here is a tell tale sign that this person hasn’t seen this offense. This is by far the most explosive and consistent offense crosby has had at least since 04. The defense is not very good but this notion that this offense is “down” is possibly the dumbest statement made on these boards this year. 

Just for clarification, I think the season you’re referring to is the ‘03 season when Phillip Beck put up 2,202 receiving(second most in Texas history). 2004 is the only time the last 15 years Crosby missed the playoffs. 

In 2013 Crosby had a better offense than the current version based on points per play which is the metric you would use to gauge explosiveness. They averaged 3 more yards per completion and 3.5 more yards per carry, as a team they averaged right at 600 yards per game and 54.5 points during the regular season while this version averages a shade under 53 points and about 545 yards per game. At this same point in that season Austin Walter had only one carry more than Craig but had already rushed for 2,085 yards, finished the season averaging 13.5ypc. Just felt like those kids should get their due. 

I will say this version of Crosby is the most dynamic in terms of ways they can score but that was always going to be the case with #7 at qb. 

 

 

[Stattrax]

12 hours ago, Cougar14.2 said:

Just for clarification, I think the season you’re referring to is the ‘03 season when Phillip Beck put up 2,202 receiving(second most in Texas history). 2004 is the only time the last 15 years Crosby missed the playoffs. 

In 2013 Crosby had a better offense than the current version based on points per play which is the metric you would use to gauge explosiveness. They averaged 3 more yards per completion and 3.5 more yards per carry, as a team they averaged right at 600 yards per game and 54.5 points during the regular season while this version averages a shade under 53 points and about 545 yards per game. At this same point in that season Austin Walter had only one carry more than Craig but had already rushed for 2,085 yards, finished the season averaging 13.5ypc. Just felt like those kids should get their due. 

I will say this version of Crosby is the most dynamic in terms of ways they can score but that was always going to be the case with #7 at qb. 

 

 

I have not seen Crosby play. But have them #2 in my voting because of the video game numbers.. What's your honest opinion on them as a whole. If you go by offensive numbers they look like they can go deep. But I use PNG as a gauge and we lack on defense... Do you think Crosby has enough firepower to make a deep run?

[Cougtalk]

29 minutes ago, Stattrax said:

I have not seen Crosby play. But have them #2 in my voting because of the video game numbers.. What's your honest opinion on them as a whole. If you go by offensive numbers they look like they can go deep. But I use PNG as a gauge and we lack on defense... Do you think Crosby has enough firepower to make a deep run?

I think Crosby and PNG are extremely similar teams. 

 

Both lack defensive consistency but make some big plays. 

 

Both have extremely good offenses (Statistically Crosby is a bit better than PNG on offense.) 

 

I think if PNG and Crosby played tomorrow I'd set a line at Crosby +3 on a neutral field. (My homer says we'd win by 10 but I think 3 would be a betting line.) 

[Cougtalk]

On 11/5/2017 at 3:09 PM, CCRed said:

I don't see Craig or Woodard playing in this game.  Just my opinion.

Conversely what if we get to half its a good game but we look over and BH is beating Porter by 28 and we go well now this game doesn't matter at all. 

[texbuzz]

16 hours ago, Cougar14.2 said:

Just for clarification, I think the season you’re referring to is the ‘03 season when Phillip Beck put up 2,202 receiving(second most in Texas history). 2004 is the only time the last 15 years Crosby missed the playoffs. 

In 2013 Crosby had a better offense than the current version based on points per play which is the metric you would use to gauge explosiveness. They averaged 3 more yards per completion and 3.5 more yards per carry, as a team they averaged right at 600 yards per game and 54.5 points during the regular season while this version averages a shade under 53 points and about 545 yards per game. At this same point in that season Austin Walter had only one carry more than Craig but had already rushed for 2,085 yards, finished the season averaging 13.5ypc. Just felt like those kids should get their due. 

I will say this version of Crosby is the most dynamic in terms of ways they can score but that was always going to be the case with #7 at qb. 

 

 

The schedule was easier in 2013 but the team performed very well.  Second round exit that year.  Gross.  

2013 Crosby Schedule	Crosby Score	Opponent Score	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Nederland	56	35	21	240
Willis	56	21	35	634
Barbers Hill	63	26	37	491
Dayton	33	27	6	334
Summer Creek	49	63	-14	166
New Caney	55	10	45	867
King	56	14	42	607
Kingwood Park	58	34	24	428
Humble	49	9	40	663
Porter	70	0	70	928
2013 Season Avg	55	24	31	536
Power # Based on Diff and OPP Strength			18

[Cougar14.2]

45 minutes ago, texbuzz said:

The schedule was easier in 2013 but the team performed very well.  Second round exit that year.  Gross.  

2013 Crosby Schedule	Crosby Score	Opponent Score	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Nederland	56	35	21	240
Willis	56	21	35	634
Barbers Hill	63	26	37	491
Dayton	33	27	6	334
Summer Creek	49	63	-14	166
New Caney	55	10	45	867
King	56	14	42	607
Kingwood Park	58	34	24	428
Humble	49	9	40	663
Porter	70	0	70	928
2013 Season Avg	55	24	31	536
Power # Based on Diff and OPP Strength			18

I see what your numbers say but the schedule was not easier in 2013. To open the season Crosby played a Nederland team coming off a 12-2 regional final appearance who eventually finished the season as undefeated district champs and went 10-2. That Nederland team had the #3 defensive tackle recruit in the country and probably had the best run defense in the region in '13, the Twins just shredded them. During district play they lined up with a Summer Creek squad that I believe was ranked #4 in the state at the time qb'd by UCLA commit Aaron Sharp and gave up 63 in an L. Crosby snuck by a Dayton team that eventually lost in the second round by one point to state finalist Brenham on a missed xp. 

The score doesn't reflect it but the Jim Holley coached KP team Crosby beat by 24 that year was better than the Jim Holley coached Porter team Crosby only beat by 7 this year. KP had a 100m state finalist at receiver, their qb was a stud and signed with UTSA and they had a big TE Jordan Feuerbacher who just scored twice for Baylor this weekend. I believe CE King only won like 3 games that year with future Texas A&M 1,000 yard freshman running back Trey Williams, I think they would be competing for the 4th spot in this current district instead of finishing 6th like they did that year.

Another fallacy I see in the rankings is that they rank 7-2 4A-D2 Jasper(166) over where they would rank a 10-2 5A district champ in Nederland(240). Same for a Dayton(334) squad that lost by one point to a 5A state finalist in the area playoffs vs an LCM(308) squad that probably wouldn't win a game in this district. SC finished 11-1 that year and was ranked #166. For whatever reason the Maxpreps algorithms don't look kindly on any losses until you reach 6A or lose to a 6A.

Overall in 2013 Crosby's offense was better, the defense was a little better and the schedule was harder. District has nowhere near the game-changers it had back then either. FB Marshall is probably better than that Elgin team we lost to by 28 that year but if we don't fumble multiple times in the rematch this team may still be good enough to win, at which point Crosby would draw Hutto who is even better than the regional final team we beat.           

[ScubaSteve]

13 hours ago, Stattrax said:

I have not seen Crosby play. But have them #2 in my voting because of the video game numbers.. What's your honest opinion on them as a whole. If you go by offensive numbers they look like they can go deep. But I use PNG as a gauge and we lack on defense... Do you think Crosby has enough firepower to make a deep run?

No! That’s my opinion. Without trying to disrespect any other team...who have we played?  I’m curious to see how good our offense is against a really good defensive team. I’m might not like the outcome...

[ScubaSteve]

12 hours ago, Cougtalk said:

Conversely what if we get to half its a good game but we look over and BH is beating Porter by 28 and we go well now this game doesn't matter at all. 

I think coach will have his team ready for another undefeated regular season regardless but Coach Rio will play to win.  I hope Craig & Rooney are healthy enough to play & not needed. 

[WOSFAN99]

23 hours ago, Stattrax said:

I have not seen Crosby play. But have them #2 in my voting because of the video game numbers.. What's your honest opinion on them as a whole. If you go by offensive numbers they look like they can go deep. But I use PNG as a gauge and we lack on defense... Do you think Crosby has enough firepower to make a deep run?

I think they can they made it to the semifinals last year I think they can go again

[texbuzz]

21 hours ago, Cougar14.2 said:

I see what your numbers say but the schedule was not easier in 2013. To open the season Crosby played a Nederland team coming off a 12-2 regional final appearance who eventually finished the season as undefeated district champs and went 10-2. That Nederland team had the #3 defensive tackle recruit in the country and probably had the best run defense in the region in '13, the Twins just shredded them. During district play they lined up with a Summer Creek squad that I believe was ranked #4 in the state at the time qb'd by UCLA commit Aaron Sharp and gave up 63 in an L. Crosby snuck by a Dayton team that eventually lost in the second round by one point to state finalist Brenham on a missed xp. 

The score doesn't reflect it but the Jim Holley coached KP team Crosby beat by 24 that year was better than the Jim Holley coached Porter team Crosby only beat by 7 this year. KP had a 100m state finalist at receiver, their qb was a stud and signed with UTSA and they had a big TE Jordan Feuerbacher who just scored twice for Baylor this weekend. I believe CE King only won like 3 games that year with future Texas A&M 1,000 yard freshman running back Trey Williams, I think they would be competing for the 4th spot in this current district instead of finishing 6th like they did that year.

Another fallacy I see in the rankings is that they rank 7-2 4A-D2 Jasper(166) over where they would rank a 10-2 5A district champ in Nederland(240). Same for a Dayton(334) squad that lost by one point to a 5A state finalist in the area playoffs vs an LCM(308) squad that probably wouldn't win a game in this district. SC finished 11-1 that year and was ranked #166. For whatever reason the Maxpreps algorithms don't look kindly on any losses until you reach 6A or lose to a 6A.

Overall in 2013 Crosby's offense was better, the defense was a little better and the schedule was harder. District has nowhere near the game-changers it had back then either. FB Marshall is probably better than that Elgin team we lost to by 28 that year but if we don't fumble multiple times in the rematch this team may still be good enough to win, at which point Crosby would draw Hutto who is even better than the regional final team we beat.           

The numbers, while not perfect, show Crosby facing a far easier schedule in 2013.  I don’t like the rankings a lot either but it is a crappy algorithm for everybody so that flattens the outliers a bit. I am an emotional fan and I put too much stock in feel or opinion, I am trying to post on the data.  

Factoring in the Willis, New Caney, Porter, King, Barbers Hill teams.....the 2013 schedule was easier.  

But, and everybody here knows this as much as I, numbers may not lie but they certainly don’t predict the future.  Every year in every division, there are teams with the numbers that go home early.  And a team that will out perform their data.  Hoping For Crosby.