New Caney at Crosby

[texbuzz]

16 hours ago, ScubaSteve said:

No! That’s my opinion. Without trying to disrespect any other team...who have we played?  I’m curious to see how good our offense is against a really good defensive team. I’m might not like the outcome...

This is about gameplanning.  If they can jump on a team early and keep their foot on the gas, they can out gun almost any offense. If they can get to Hutto, that will be the test. 

[songone]

6 hours ago, texbuzz said:

This is about gameplanning.  If they can jump on a team early and keep their foot on the gas, they can out gun almost any offense. If they can get to Hutto, that will be the test. 

I watched Hutto vs CP... Give me Crosby in that game all day. Hutto defense can't withstand 4 quarters of Squirrel.

[Cougar14.2]

5 hours ago, texbuzz said:

The numbers, while not perfect, show Crosby facing a far easier schedule in 2013.  I don’t like the rankings a lot either but it is a crappy algorithm for everybody so that flattens the outliers a bit. I am an emotional fan and I put too much stock in feel or opinion, I am trying to post on the data.  

Factoring in the Willis, New Caney, Porter, King, Barbers Hill teams.....the 2013 schedule was easier.  

But, and everybody here knows this as much as I, numbers may not lie but they certainly don’t predict the future.  Every year in every division, there are teams with the numbers that go home early.  And a team that will out perform their data.  Hoping For Crosby. 

I like your work and I prefer not to disagree with Crosby people but I still don’t get it? Try to forget the factors and do a basic drill. Using your theory Crosby could play WOS(54) ten times and win all ten by 3 points, then they could play North Shore(71) ten times, win nine by 3 points, lose once by 1 point and be a weaker team using your grading system which just isn’t right. 

Bottom four of the district were 10-30 in 2013, district’s bottom four will finish 8-27 this year because of some missed games but the bottle is still the bottom. Some of the names have just changed. If you’re factoring in Willis then LCM should hurt even more. 

What I’ve found from a little research is that you get super-penalized for first or second round losses which is why Crosby is getting more credit for beating Jasper this year than Nederland that year. If you used the numbers during the season, which I don’t think there’s a way to get, you get a more apples to apples comparison for how you’re scoring the teams. For instance, NC(234) who is currently second in our district is ranked 110 spots behind Tomball Memorial(124) who they lost to 58-46 and might not make the playoffs in their district. NC’s(6-2) schedule is nowhere near the strength of TM’s(5-3) and they’ve already lost to them which is currently reflected, however NC could beat Nederland or Central in the first round and end up ranked ahead of TM because TM will draw Cedar Park and lose in the first round which won’t be and isn’t reflected in your math trying to compare across years. 

End of the day just do the eye test if you actually saw those games back then. This year our second place team just got beat by 28. Our third place team lost by 28 to them and our fourth rep. who will probably end up finishing second lost to KP and had to squeak by Dayton on a dropped TD. BH was a salty 6-4 and stayed home with a good team that year. That far easier comment makes me wonder what you saw back then that I didn’t? All that being said the district went 3-1 in the opening round that year and I truly think we’ll go 3-1 again this year as long as BH is healthy going into their matchup with PNG. 

I’m not saying this team can’t end up as maybe even Crosby’s best team but those 2013 kids were the ones who started the hype train and hashtags. They just ran into #4 SC in district and #6 Elgin in the second round. I agree though, here’s to hoping Crosby outperforms any data gathered. 

 

[Cougtalk]

14.2, completely unrelated to the conversation you are having with his stats. 

In 2017 I think we have a better offense because we have been more balanced, less turnover prone, and more efficient at scoring Touchdowns. 

 

 

	2013	2017
PASS YARD/TD Ratio	90.97	101.78
RUSH YARD/TD Ratio	91.85	64.15
PASS YARD.INT Ratio	363.88	585.25
Rush %	61.44%	56.57%
Pass %	38.56%	43.43%
YPC	16.83	16.3
TOTAL YARD/TD Ratio	91.49	77.89

The passing efficiency in 2013 was marginally better than in 2017 but we have been substantially more efficient in 2017 overall and rushing the football.

I don't think a good argument can be made that 2013 is a better offense than 2017 largely due to 2013's overreliance on the run and lack of efficient scoring. 

 

I think the numbers bear out that we have been extremely efficient in scoring and have maintained a much better run/pass balance which makes the current team harder to gameplan for and overall better. 

EDIT beyond this point: 

Given we do not have good Defensive/Special Teams Stats yard efficiency seems to be the closest rating we can get to understanding the total teams make up. A Good defense gives you good field position, a good special teams unit gives you good field position and thus allows your offense to be more efficient. 

The Total Yards per TD shows me that Crosby gets the ball in good field position and scores often. 

 

[texbuzz]

after the New Caney game, I don't want to talk data.  That....just sucked.