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Good summary on the impeachment process


stevenash

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The process

With Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi officially commencing an impeachment inquiry into President Trump, the natural question is what comes next. The House can impeach a president, as well as other federal officials, if they believe that "Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors" have been committed. The House Judiciary Committee leads the impeachment investigation, though several key committees-Intelligence, Foreign Affairs, Oversight, Ways & Means, and Financial Services-have been investigating President Trump and will continue to do so under the impeachment inquiry umbrella.

Following these investigations, if the Judiciary committee deems warranted, it would draft articles of impeachment, of which there could be multiple, potentially covering President Trump's latest actions involving Ukraine as well as previous issues such as the Mueller investigation. The Judiciary committee then votes to bring each article to the full House, after which debate and a floor vote are conducted. Both votes require a simple majority to pass. Technically, any House member can introduce articles of impeachment without going through a committee-Representative Al Green has already tried-but without the support of Speaker Pelosi and other Democratic leaders in the House.

If articles of impeachment pass the floor vote, the matter then moves to the Senate where a trial is held. Current Senate rules state that a trial would be held after the articles of impeachment are passed by the House. However, the timing is uncertain; for example, a trial could be potentially delayed via legislative maneuvers.

Should a trial be held, Chief Justice Roberts would preside, President Trump would need to enter a plea and would be defended by his attorneys, House members would act as prosecutors, and the Senate would be the jury. In order to convict, there needs to be a 2/3 majority vote by Senators-a higher bar than the simple majority in the House. 47 senators caucus with the Democrats, so, assuming they would all vote guilty, conviction would require that at least 20 out of 53 Republicans join them. In the event of conviction, Trump would be removed from office and replaced by Vice President Pence.

Three things are worth underscoring. First, given that Democrats control the House and a 2/3 vote is required in the Senate, there is a rising probability of impeachment but actual removal appears a remote possibility, in our view. Second, removing the President likely wouldn't change the near term policy path significantly because the Vice President shares many of his views and gridlock makes legislative changes very difficult anyway. Third, the process could extend out over a long period of time-the process took 13 months for President Clinton.

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