bobcatfan Posted July 31, 2007 Report Posted July 31, 2007 http://bradssportsblog.blogspot.com/Its kinda long but read it and tell me what you think. If you have an account on that site (or you could sign up for an account, very quick) post a comment on either of the blogs if you like. Post your comments on here too obviously.
bobcatfan Posted August 3, 2007 Author Report Posted August 3, 2007 In case people didnt go to the link or the link didnt work, here is the blog I wrote in its entirety. (its kinda long, i know) If you like it or have something to say please post comments on my page as well as here.After making a world series appearance in 2002 and having consecutive 90 wins in 03'and 04', the San Francisco Giants posted consecutive sub .500 seasons in 05' and 06'. Brian Sabean, the GM of the Giants, was on the hot seat and under pressure to make a splash in free agency. With the NL West projected to be very tough from top to bottom, it was clear to Sabean and the Giants they needed more help and adding one big player could possibly put them over the top. Plus you had Barry Bonds unsigned and they needed to prove to him they were trying to be a contender this year so he wouldnt retire or sign with another club. Pressure was mounting in the 07' offseason as all the biggest names were coming off the board. Here's a list of the 6 biggest free agent signings and their contracts they had inked up until the point before Zito signed with the Giants:Jason Schmidt, LA Dodgers: 3 years 47 millionGil Meche, KC Royals: 5 years 55 millionTed Lilly, Chicago Cubs: 4 years 40 millonJason Marquis, Chicago Cubs: 3 years 27 millionDaisuke Matsusaka, Boston Red Sox: 6 years 52 millionJeff Suppan, Milwaukee Brewers: 4 years 40 millionWhen you take a look at those contracts, your first reaction is wow. Thats a lot of money being thrown around, averaging in the range from 9-14 million a year for pitchers who really arent considered aces. Schmidt you might could say that for, but age and durability concerns i think wouldnt qualify him for that tag and Matsusaka was a total unknown. You really had no idea how his game would stack up against the MLB hitters. Meche, Lilly, Marquis and Suppan are marginal #2 or 3 pitchers on a staff at best. Those guys posted an era between 4.00 and 4.50 last year and Marquis's era was over 6! So with all these average pitchers signing huge deals already, you know this set up for a perfect storm for Barry Zito's agent, Scott Boras. Boras is notoriously known now around all of baseball and all sports for getting his players signed to deals that are usually far above their projected market value. His most notable clients are Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran. Boras got the Texas Rangers to big against themselves, awarding Arod to the richest contract in baseball history, 10 years 252 million dollars. Boras got the Astros and Mets in a bidding war for Carlos Beltran using the Astros as leverage for Beltrans monstrous 7 year 119 million dollar contract he signed with the Mets. Barry Zito had been one of the most durable pitchers in the last previous 6 seasons, logging at least 34 starts and at least 210 innings a season. Zito had a Cy Young award under his belt from 2002, and carried a lot more name recognition and sizzle than the other 6 highest highest paid free agent pitchers. Thats all the ammunition Boras needed to sign Zito with the desperate Giants to one of the biggest contracts for a pitcher in baseball history: 7 years 126 million dollars. Lets now fast forward to the present and take a look at how all these pitchers are doing currently and compare their numbers. (gs= games started, qs= quality starts)Barry Zito 7-10 5.28 era 21 GS 10 QSGil Meche 7-7 3.76 era 22 GS 14 QSDaisuke Matsusaka 12-7 3.79 era 21 GS 13 QSTed Lilly 11-4 3.46 era 21 GS 13 QSJason Marquis 7-6 4.20 era 21 GS 9 QSJeff Suppan 8-9 5.08 era 22 GS 8 QSJason Schmidt 1-4 6.31 era injuredLooking at those numbers, you can say that some of those pitchers are living up to their contracts based on their previous numbers. Lilly has probably done the best, and Matsusaka wont win the Cy Young, but 12 wins, on his way to a 17-19 win season is looking very good for Daisuke and the Red sox. Meche certainly has been a pleseant surprise for the Royals, and has stepped up as their ace (albeit for the Royals). Marquis's era is decent and Suppan's is worse than average, but both players are on contending teams and have given their teams valuable innings, saving the bullpen. Jason Schmidts deal is looking pretty bad, but considering its only a 3 year deal and worth 80 million less, its not quite is big of an issue as Zito's contract. And then there's Barry Zito, who has the 4th worst era in the NL of pitchers who have made at least 20 starts, 7th worst in all the majors. Only Scott Olsen, Adam Eaton, Matt Belisle, Jose Contreras, Odalis Perez and Jorge de la rosa are worse than Zito right now. Lets see how Zito compares on his own team in relation to their stats this year and their current salaries: (gs= games started, qs= quality starts)Barry Zito 7-10 5.28 era 21 GS 10 QS, 10 million, 7yrs 126 milTim Lincecum 6-2 3.90 era 15 GS 10 QS , (? minor league deal, under 1 mil?)Noah Lowry 11-7 3.40 era 20 GS 12 QS, 1.3 million, 4yr 9.25 milMatt Cain 3-12 4.02 era 21 GS 12 QS, 650,000, 4yr 9 milMatt Morris 7-6 4.16 era 20 GS 12 QS, 10 million, 3yr 27 milLooking at the rotation's total salary, Zito makes around 80 million total more than the other 4 pitchers combined. Clearly, Zito is the lowest performing starter of the 5. If Tim Lincecum had pitched all year, he would have more than 10 quality starts, giving Zito the least amount of quality starts and the highest ERA. Matt Cain has more losses, but has definitely outpitched Zito and his losses are more a product of bad run support. Given how much free agent pitchers were being paid in the 07' offseason, Cain and Lowry look like great bargains at this point, unlike Zito. Zito's stats are so bad, if he was just any young pitcher out there, he'd be sent down to the minors. But given his salary and track record, he will be forced to work it out in the majors. Looking back, would anyone have predicted Zito would be this bad? The answer to that would be no. Some thought a move to the NL would boost his numbers but they have done the opposite. But i think if the Giants management would looked closer at the numbers, they would know that Zito is not near the pitcher he was back in 2002. Here is Zito's numbers from his rookie year to present:Year Team GS W L IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA2000 OAK 14 7 4 92.2 64 30 28 6 45 78 2.72 1.18 .1952001 OAK 35 17 8 214.1 184 92 83 18 80 205 3.49 1.23 .2302002 OAK 35 23 5 229.1 182 79 70 24 78 182 2.75 1.13 .2182003 OAK 35 14 12 231.2 186 98 85 19 88 146 3.30 1.18 .2192004 OAK 34 11 11 213.0 216 116 106 28 81 163 4.48 1.39 .2632005 OAK 35 14 13 228.1 185 106 98 26 89 171 3.86 1.20 .2212006 OAK 34 16 10 221.0 211 99 94 27 99 151 3.83 1.40 .2572007 SF 21 7 10 121.0 121 77 71 15 58 81 5.28 1.48 .260When you look at Zitos first full 3 seasons, 01'-03', he was a very good pitcher and one of the best no doubt. But if the Giants management wouldve examined his last 3 seasons in 04'-06' they should've noticed several red flags. First and most noticable to the average fan would be his era. Between 01-03 he had an average era of around 3.20, between 04-06 it was around average around 4.10, almost a full run higher. So his last 3 years in Oakland, he was only marginally better than a league average pitcher. The next red flag that shouldve been noticed is Zitos rising WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched). From 01-03, his WHIP was between 1.13 and 1.23, which is very good. A good pitcher wants to keep a WHIP in the 1.20-1.30 range (elite pitchers are usually between 1.00 and 1.20). The average pitcher's WHIP might be around 1.30 to 1.40 or higher. Zito's WHIP in 04' and 06' rose from 1.20 in the first 3 years to 1.39 and 1.40. His BAA, batting average against, which was lower than .230 his first 3 seasons, was significantly higher in 04' and 06' rising around 30 pts to .257 and .263. Zito averaged around 20 homers allowed in his first 3 seasons, which is pretty good, most good pitchers allow less than the low 20's. His last 3 seasons though he averaged 27 home runs allowed which is worse than the average MLB pitcher. In addition to all those stats, his strikeout rate decreased the last 3 seasons, and with the higher BAA, Zito was giving up about a hit per inning. Many of Zitos numbers across the board in his last 3 seasons with Oakland were average or just below average.Barry Zito's contract may end up being historically bad, and it was already being talked about before the season even started (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove06/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=2717201&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines). This deal is already being compared to the recent disasters of deals like Mike Hampton and Kevin Brown. Zito is traditionally a better 2nd half pitcher, so he could turn it around and post respectable numbers by the end of the year. But no matter what he does he wont be worth what he signed for. In fact, i think its already its already turning into a disaster for Zito in SF. I watched his last start on friday, and Zito was getting booed off the field. Listening to the announcers and analysts talk about Zito, there could be something wrong with Zito physically and mentally. San Francisco is not a franchise like the Yankees or Red Sox that has an unlimited payroll, and Zito's deal for 18 million a year could handcuff the franchise for years. This deal could be the deathnail for GM Brian Sabean. After another year of last place finish for the Giants, dont be surprised if he doesnt return to the Giants next season. I also wouldnt be surprised if Zito is traded in the next couple years, with the Giants eating most of the contract just to get him out of town. So what have we learned from all of this? First and foremost, Scott Boras, while not a very well liked guy in sports, is very very good at his job and gets his clients paid. Zito probably didnt even deserve 10 million a year, much less 18 million and year and Boras got him his money. Secondly, with the amount of teams in the league and the current crop of pitching, good pitching is high demand and teams realize its great starting pitching that wins championships, so they will continue to pay high dollars. Thirdly, if you are going to throw big money at free agent, he better be an elite player with no questions about his talent. I think there was no question there was a lot of uncertainty about Zito's talent, given his current performance in the past 3 seasons. Like what most small market ballclubs will do, its sometimes better financially to give a young guy a chance than throw big money at a marginal veteran pitcher. The astros did something similar to this on a much lower level, giving Woody Williams a 2 yr/12 million dollar deal in which he has returned them a era over 5.00 so far. They will face a similar type decision on Jason Jennings next season (if they dont trade him), for his value on the deflated pitchers market will likely be in the range of 6-10 million a year. Hopefully the astros dont fall into the same pitfall the Giants did. The more teams get burnt by these overpriced pitchers, you figure the price of pitching will go down. But as long as theres a high demand for good pitching, and agents like Scott Boras are still out there, history will likely continue to repeat itself.
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