baddog Posted March 17, 2020 Report Posted March 17, 2020 1 hour ago, LumRaiderFan said: I got your point, but at this time you have no way of predicting the ratio of severity to frequency. Do you really think the numbers won't go up tremendously when more testing takes place over the next weeks and months? That's my point. Your point seems to want to drive the hysteria that we are seeing. And that’s the name of that tune. LumRaiderFan 1 Quote
baddog Posted March 17, 2020 Report Posted March 17, 2020 2 hours ago, UT alum said: Do you not understand the concept of severity, versus frequency? 60,000,000 flu cases are frequency. 12000 deaths to 60000000 infections is a very low mortality (severity) rate. So far in US, 89 deaths to 4500 or so infections is about 2%. 2% of 60000000 would produce 1200000 deaths, 100 times greater than 12000/60000000. Very high severity rate. So, call it what you will, but scoff at your own peril. When I first did the math a week or so ago, the numbers matched the flu death rate. I will admit that the rate has gone up since then. Being the optimist that I am, I like to say that there is a 98% survival rate. Doesn’t that sound better? Quote
UT alum Posted March 17, 2020 Report Posted March 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, baddog said: When I first did the math a week or so ago, the numbers matched the flu death rate. I will admit that the rate has gone up since then. Being the optimist that I am, I like to say that there is a 98% survival rate. Doesn’t that sound better? Of course. If you’re not in the 2%. Quote
baddog Posted March 17, 2020 Report Posted March 17, 2020 Just now, UT alum said: Of course. If you’re not in the 2%. Don’t know why I even try. NetCat 1 Quote
UT alum Posted March 17, 2020 Report Posted March 17, 2020 1 minute ago, baddog said: Don’t know why I even try. Persistence pays, so they say. Quote
NetCat Posted March 17, 2020 Report Posted March 17, 2020 33 minutes ago, UT alum said: Of course. If you’re not in the 2%. Troll Quote
UT alum Posted March 17, 2020 Report Posted March 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, NetCat said: Troll Whatever. With normal flu, survival is like 99.99. 2% vs. .1% is huge when talking large numbers. Quote
SmashMouth Posted March 17, 2020 Report Posted March 17, 2020 5 hours ago, UT alum said: Do you not understand the concept of severity, versus frequency? 60,000,000 flu cases are frequency. 12000 deaths to 60000000 infections is a very low mortality (severity) rate. So far in US, 89 deaths to 4500 or so infections is about 2%. 2% of 60000000 would produce 1200000 deaths, 100 times greater than 12000/60000000. Very high severity rate. So, call it what you will, but scoff at your own peril. 770,000 deaths from AIDS in 2018. 40 million deaths in total. Hasn’t stopped anyone from doing the old in/out... Quote
stevenash Posted March 17, 2020 Report Posted March 17, 2020 2 hours ago, UT alum said: Persistence pays, so they say. Except for the Russian Collusion hoax Quote
baddog Posted March 18, 2020 Report Posted March 18, 2020 Here is a good comparison. This is the hidden content, please Sign In or Sign Up Like Smashmouth pointed out, the total deaths far outweigh the percentages. See, I can post high death rate percentages for the plague, but how many people have it anymore? It is still around. Mortality rates for treated individuals range from 1 percent to 15 percent for bubonic plague to 40 percent for septicemic plague. In untreated victims, the rates rise to about 50 percent for bubonic and 100 percent for septicemic. Quote
SmashMouth Posted March 18, 2020 Report Posted March 18, 2020 1 hour ago, baddog said: Here is a good comparison. This is the hidden content, please Sign In or Sign Up Like Smashmouth pointed out, the total deaths far outweigh the percentages. See, I can post high death rate percentages for the plague, but how many people have it anymore? It is still around. Mortality rates for treated individuals range from 1 percent to 15 percent for bubonic plague to 40 percent for septicemic plague. In untreated victims, the rates rise to about 50 percent for bubonic and 100 percent for septicemic. Right. Let’s say only 1 person got small cox. Let’s say he died because of it. That’s 100% kill rate, but it’s still just 1 death. (Of course, we all know lots of people have small cox.) Quote
NetCat Posted March 18, 2020 Report Posted March 18, 2020 1 hour ago, SmashMouth said: Right. Let’s say only 1 person got small cox. Let’s say he died because of it. That’s 100% kill rate, but it’s still just 1 death. (Of course, we all know lots of people have small cox.) 🤣🤣🤣 Quote
TxHoops Posted March 18, 2020 Report Posted March 18, 2020 9 hours ago, LumRaiderFan said: I got your point, but at this time you have no way of predicting the ratio of severity to frequency. Do you really think the numbers won't go up tremendously when more testing takes place over the next weeks and months? That's my point. Your point seems to want to drive the hysteria that we are seeing. This is the point. We can’t even come close to valid numbers at this stage due to the minimal testing which has been done. There have likely been way more people who have had it than we even know. This is beyond the great hoax the amateur infectious disease “experts” were spouting even a few days ago. It’s also likely way less than the gloom and doomers were preaching. Like most things, the truth will likely be in the middle. As I was told last week by a couple of different friends who are in the field, some of us will get it, and almost everyone will know several people who contract it. And most will even know someone who didn’t survive it. But we will get past it. It just likely won’t be as soon as most hope. CardinalBacker and LumRaiderFan 1 1 Quote
SmashMouth Posted March 18, 2020 Report Posted March 18, 2020 6 hours ago, TxHoops said: This is the point. We can’t even come close to valid numbers at this stage due to the minimal testing which has been done. There have likely been way more people who have had it than we even know. This is beyond the great hoax the amateur infectious disease “experts” were spouting even a few days ago. It’s also likely way less than the gloom and doomers were preaching. Like most things, the truth will likely be in the middle. As I was told last week by a couple of different friends who are in the field, some of us will get it, and almost everyone will know several people who contract it. And most will even know someone who didn’t survive it. But we will get past it. It just likely won’t be as soon as most hope. Yes. Just like the flu or a car accident. Quote
stevenash Posted March 18, 2020 Report Posted March 18, 2020 This is the hidden content, please Sign In or Sign Up Quote
baddog Posted March 19, 2020 Report Posted March 19, 2020 These are death percentages by countries most affected by the Covid-19. Italy-8.4% Iran-6.17% China-4% US-1.43 S. Korea-1.06 How about those numbers UT? Third world countries are not as vaccinated as we are. Quote
A BUC 77 Posted March 19, 2020 Report Posted March 19, 2020 The world has to look at what South Korea is doing. Quote
Reagan Posted March 19, 2020 Author Report Posted March 19, 2020 1 minute ago, A BUC 77 said: The world has to look at what South Korea is doing. I just heard that 95% of those tested were NOT Caronavirus. They were originally saying it was. Plus, now that it's getting warmer, the virus will subside. Quote
TxHoops Posted March 19, 2020 Report Posted March 19, 2020 It’s gone up from 10k and change to over 13k in the US in the last few hours. That’s about 10 percent an hour for those mathematically challenged. Of those 176 have died and 108 have fully recovered. This is the hidden content, please Sign In or Sign Up Quote
TxHoops Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 This is the hidden content, please Sign In or Sign Up Quote
TxHoops Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 This is the hidden content, please Sign In or Sign Up Quote
TxHoops Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 This is the hidden content, please Sign In or Sign Up Quote
bullets13 Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 It’s amazing to me how people who want to pretend that this isn’t a big deal will ignore 99.9% of the experts and healthcare professionals, as well as the WHO and the CDC, and then post some article like this as “verification” that their denial of the problem is justified. Quote
TxHoops Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 56 minutes ago, bullets13 said: It’s amazing to me how people who want to pretend that this isn’t a big deal will ignore 99.9% of the experts and healthcare professionals, as well as the WHO and the CDC, and then post some article like this as “verification” that their denial of the problem is justified. Denying science has replaced baseball as a national pastime in this country... bullets13 1 Quote
CardinalBacker Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 7 hours ago, TxHoops said: Denying science has replaced baseball as a national pastime in this country... Yeah, but science only has to worry about science. The CDC’s main focus is making sure that not a single person more is infected. They’ll recommend taking whatever steps are necessary to make sure that transmission of this virus is stopped. In the real world, leaders have to balance the CDC’s very focused suggestions on disease control with the practical needs of the community as a whole. it’s be great if we could send everybody home for 56 days of complete and total isolation, but people still need to eat. Trucks need to make deliveries, shelves must be stocked, streets patrolled, People are about to realize why having a savings account equal to six months months living expenses is so much better than having an iPhone 11, a new car, and a dozen pairs of Jordans. Later... gotta go tend to my garden. LumRaiderFan, bullets13 and TxHoops 3 Quote
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