Hey Coop storm coming to gulf

[Guest football09]

ITs looking better organized towards florida it doesn't look good for southeast tx....every weather man is talking about this hitting the upper texas coast...what are your thoughts today??

[tvc184]

.... and the Brooklyn Bridge is still up for sale if you make me an offer.

[southern-thunder]

i will take the bridge but only if you will move it to Arizona to go with my ocean front property

[skipper]

this storm is not looking good for us  better get ready

[Guest ballfan]

is it headed this way or something?

[KFDM COOP]

Nothing's developed yet. Once the wave comes off FL. it will probably develop. A day or so to early to say where it will go.

[Guest football09]

Its not looking good right now.........

[tvc184]

What is not looking good? There is a group of disroganized clouds off the Atlantic coast of Florida.

Nothing is going to develop that will effect us other than maybe some thunderstorms... and we get those all the time in the summer anyway.

Put the generators away and get ready for Friday night's games.

[Guest football09]

Its easy for you to say that we saw what Humberto did in 24 hour period.....this wave will get into the gulf and this is more important to worry about then a friday night football game.........

The GFS model forecasts that this disturbance will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and tracks this system west-northwest late this week into this weekend as it develops. The GFS model forecasts that this system will come ashore on the upper Texas coast near the Louisiana state-line on Sunday.

The NOGAPS model has a much different idea than the GFS model. It forecasts that this disturbance will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night and Thursday and then develop in the Bay of Campeche this weekend as it stalls in that one area.

The UKMET model has the same idea as the GFS model and forecasts that this system will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night and Thursday and develop a closed circulation by Thursday evening. The UKMET model then forecasts this system will track west-northwest and potentially develop and intensify before it comes onshore on the upper Texas coast on Sunday night.

I will admit this system and its potential development has me concerned. A ridge of high pressure will be to this system's north and this system will have a slow west to west-northwest movement underneath the high pressure system. This setup seems like it would be quite favorable for tropical cyclone development and intensification. As I mentioned in the previous paragraph, the upper level winds and the amount of shear over the Gulf of Mexico is the big question. If they are strong, as forecasted by some of the models, then this system will have a difficult time developing. However, if the upper level winds are weak and the shear is weak, then we would have a intensifying tropical cyclone to deal with late this week into this weekend and a very real potential danger along the Texas coast. All residents and vacationers on the Texas coast should pay very careful attention to the progress of this potential system. This is a system that I am going to keep a very close eye on and I will be sure to keep you all updated.

[KFDM COOP]

The Nam model takes it to Mobile and the New Euro Model has it at Freeport. When it develops then we'll have a good idea.

[akifan94]

What is not looking good? There is a group of disroganized clouds off the Atlantic coast of Florida.

Nothing is going to develop that will effect us other than maybe some thunderstorms... and we get those all the time in the summer anyway.

Put the generators away and get ready for Friday night's games.

You sound pretty confident. Are you a paid weatherman? Because all the ones I have read seem to disagree with you. I do hope you are right though.

[Zoneblock]

What does the coop model say?

[Guest football09]

Coop and bostwick are nervous they never talk about things early like this......I am from the dayton area and this is what my cousin told me.....

The four reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis all predict that once this area of disturbed weather crosses Florida and emerges into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, wind shear will drop enough to allow a tropical depression to form. The path such a storm might take is highly uncertain, and the models have diverged significantly since yesterday's runs. A strong ridge of high pressure is setting up over the eastern half of the U.S., and is expected to remain anchored in place for at least ten days. This is the type of steering pattern we experienced during the Hurricane Season of 2005, and favors westward-moving storms. This ridge will act to steer any developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico towards the west, to the Texas coast, or even west-southwest, to the northeastern mainland Mexico. However, this steering pattern will be complicated by the presence of an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. This upper-level low is currently forming over northern Florida, and is expected to drift southwestward or westward over the Gulf later this week, and gradually weaken. Depending on the strength and movement of this low, a storm that forms in the eastern Gulf could be steered anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to northeastern Mexico. One model, the NOGAPS, predicts that the storm will move west-southwest into the Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf of Mexico), and stall out for many days. The UKMET, GFS, and ECMFW models foresee that the storm will make landfall in Texas or Louisiana Sunday or Monday. All residents along the Gulf of Mexico coast need to consider what actions they might need to take if a hurricane develops in the Gulf this weekend. The highest danger region is from New Orleans westward to Brownsville, Texas. A hurricane hunter airplane is on call for Thursday afternoon.

[piratefan]

Guys let Coop do his job..Its not like we wont have any notice of whats going on..What do you think that when you go to bed one night it will be a Tropical storm, and then in the middle of the night with out warning it will be a hurricane??

  oops!! nevermind... ;D ;D

[KFDM COOP]

Especially when it does it 5 miles from shore.

[DP#1FAN]

Its easy for you to say that we saw what Humberto did in 24 hour period.....this wave will get into the gulf and this is more important to worry about then a friday night football game.........

The GFS model forecasts that this disturbance will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and tracks this system west-northwest late this week into this weekend as it develops. The GFS model forecasts that this system will come ashore on the upper Texas coast near the Louisiana state-line on Sunday.

The NOGAPS model has a much different idea than the GFS model. It forecasts that this disturbance will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night and Thursday and then develop in the Bay of Campeche this weekend as it stalls in that one area.

The UKMET model has the same idea as the GFS model and forecasts that this system will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night and Thursday and develop a closed circulation by Thursday evening. The UKMET model then forecasts this system will track west-northwest and potentially develop and intensify before it comes onshore on the upper Texas coast on Sunday night.

I will admit this system and its potential development has me concerned. A ridge of high pressure will be to this system's north and this system will have a slow west to west-northwest movement underneath the high pressure system. This setup seems like it would be quite favorable for tropical cyclone development and intensification. As I mentioned in the previous paragraph, the upper level winds and the amount of shear over the Gulf of Mexico is the big question. If they are strong, as forecasted by some of the models, then this system will have a difficult time developing. However, if the upper level winds are weak and the shear is weak, then we would have a intensifying tropical cyclone to deal with late this week into this weekend and a very real potential danger along the Texas coast. All residents and vacationers on the Texas coast should pay very careful attention to the progress of this potential system. This is a system that I am going to keep a very close eye on and I will be sure to keep you all updated.

The smartest weatherman in Hardin!  ;D

[KFDM COOP]

The latest GFS Model has it near New Orleans Sunday, way to early to say where yet.

[akifan94]

Tropical Disturbance 50

Updated: Tuesday, September 18th 2007 12:24pm CDT

Model consensus continues to grow that a low pressure area will develop in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. Thunderstorms along the east coast of Florida have increased over the past 24 hours. It is these thunderstorms that should drift westward across Florida and into the east and southeastern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours that would be the focus for tropical development. Our confidence that a tropical depression or storm will form in the southeastern Gulf has increased this morning. But there are some questions about how favorable the environment will be for intensification.

Though all models indicate tropical development, they also continue to predict that an upper-level low will be interacting with the developing storm. This could result in wind shear that would prevent any rapid intensification. But it could be that the models don't handle such tropical systems well and they're not predicting the upper air pattern correctly. If that's the case, then the environment across the Gulf may well be favorable for gradual intensification as the system moves westward across the Gulf at 5-10 mph between Thursday and Saturday.

With high pressure to the north, the landfall still appears to be between northern Mexico and the central Louisiana coast sometime late Saturday or on Sunday. Though the models are currently focusing on the lower to middle Texas coast, any small shift in the position of the high pressure center north of the system could result in a track farther up the Texas coast or even more to the south toward Mexico.

Meteorologist: Chris Hebert

[akifan94]

Update.....

Tropical Disturbance 50

Updated: Tuesday, September 18th 2007 12:40pm CDT

Surface reports along with satellite and radar imagery indicate the disturbance has become a little better organized this morning. Thunderstorms continue to flare up off the east coast of Florida and there is now evidence of a weak surface low pressure center forming about 60 to 80 miles east of Miami, FL. We think this system will move slowly west over the next 24 to 48 hours. Our confidence that a tropical depression or storm will form in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday has increased to 70 percent.

Once in the southeastern Gulf, high pressure to the north should steer the developing storm west-northwestward across the central Gulf on Friday and Saturday. It's too early to be very confident on where the eventual landfall will be. Previously, we were thinking between northern Mexico and central Louisiana. That area still looks to be the most likely, but the threat could be shifting a bit more to the north, perhaps toward the upper Texas Coast or even toward Louisiana.

As for intensity, it looks like wind shear will not be as much of a factor as we were thinking earlier. Current model guidance suggests gradual strengthening up until landfall. That looks reasonable. This means that the system could become a hurricane and threaten the northwest Gulf coast next weekend. If the track is toward Louisiana, then landfall would be on Saturday. If the track is westward toward the Texas Coast, then landfall would likely be on Sunday.

Here we go again

[Guest kosmo]

Hey guys don't worry.  The storm will not hit here.  Humberto blew down our gazeebo in the backyard a mere three months after we put it up.  We also put one up three months before Rita blew through.  So, if you are sensing a pattern, no need to be alarmed.  I am not putting another one of those hurricane magnets up in my backyard.  I am predicting NO STORM!!!

[KFDM COOP]

[rhino1877]

Hey guys don't worry.  The storm will not hit here.  Humberto blew down our gazeebo in the backyard a mere three months after we put it up.  We also put one up three months before Rita blew through.  So, if you are sensing a pattern, no need to be alarmed.  I am not putting another one of those hurricane magnets up in my backyard.  I am predicting NO STORM!!!

LOL!!!

[KFDM COOP]

Updated

[PNG1992]

there ya go.

[KFDM COOP]

Remember though nothing has even developed yet. Once it does this could change.