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*TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10/TRACK UPDATES*

KFDM COOP

By KFDM COOP
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bullets13

bullets13

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So Coop, most of the graphs are showing this thing hitting Louisiana, but an article in the Enterprise said it could come and hit us instead.  What are the odds of this thing actually hitting us?  I know that anything can happen, but is it a realistic possibility that we are hit again?

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bh89-2

bh89-2

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Impact Weather Forecast

Updated: Wednesday, September 19th 2007 5:23am CDT

Tropical Disturbance 50 moved very slowly westward overnight and is now located near the coast of Florida just north of Miami. Pressures in that area continue to fall, though the disturbance remains disorganized. Little has changed as far as our thinking overnight. We expect the disturbance to move across south Florida today and emerge into the eastern Gulf on Thursday. By Thursday, wind shear should be slowly relaxing, and it's likely that a tropical depression will form.

High pressure to the north from Thursday through Saturday should result in a west to west-northwest movement at 7-10 mph during that period. We're still not sure how strong the high pressure will be yet, so our confidence in the eventual landfall remains low. The European model, which has done very well so far this season, is forecasting that high pressure will remain strong enough to steer the developing storm westward all the way to the mid Texas coast on Sunday. Most other model guidance indicates landfall from the upper Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Our thinking is that the most likely track would be toward the upper Texas coast to the mid Louisiana coast with landfall as early as noon Saturday, but possibly as late as Sunday.

As for intensity, current model guidance suggests very slow strengthening up until landfall. We do not expect rapid intensification at this time due to the presence of an upper-level low to the west of the developing storm. This low will likely impart wind shear for at least the next several days. But we do think that there is a good chance that the storm could reach hurricane strength prior to its eventual landfall.

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KFDM COOP

KFDM COOP

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BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  1A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL102007

100 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS

ACQUIRED ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CONSIDERED A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING NEW

ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50

MILES... 85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 155

MILES...250 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A TURN TO

THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE

FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING NEARLY

PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND

TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER

TODAY OR TOMORROW.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM

AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE

DEPRESSION.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE

FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...29.7 N...85.9 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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KFDM COOP

KFDM COOP

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BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER  2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL102007

400 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING NEW

ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST OR ABOUT 45

MILES... 75 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65

MILES...100 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.  THIS

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE

DEPRESSION VERY NEAR THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO MAKING

LANDFALL.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM

AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE

DEPRESSION.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE

FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...29.9 N...86.4 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35

MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000

PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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