Strength of Schedule

[Bigdog]

I borrowed this from WOS87's post on the Week 5 rankings thread.

WOS87

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    Re: *SETXsports.com Rankings After Week 5*

« Reply #24 on: Today at 07:40:45 AM » Quote 

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Of all the current unbeaten teams in the area, Nederland is the only one that has a strength of schedule over 50%. 

Combined records of opponents (Strength of Schedule) thru Week 5:

(games vs. the team in question are not added in, otherwise it skews it downward for the more successful teams, i.e. Ned's would be 14-12, Buna 4-22, Lumberton 4-21)

Undefeated teams

Nederland 14-7 (67%)

East Chambers 10-11 (48%)

Hardin 12-15 (44%)

Kelly 8-13 (38%)

Lumberton 4-16 (20%)

Buna 4-17 (19%)

Among the leaders in the area:

Vidor 17-3 (85%) - 4 of their 5 opponents are undefeated

Dayton 15-6 (71%)

Hamshire-Fannett 14-6 (70%)

Nederland 14-7 (67%)

Bridge City 13-7 (65%)

Newton 10-6 (63%)

PN-G 13-8 (62%)

Orangefield 12-8 (60%)

Jasper 11-8 (58%)

WO-S 11-9 (55%)

Central 11-9 (55%)

Pt Arthur Memorial 11-9 (55%)

LC-M 11-10 (52%)

Kirbyville 10-10 (50%)

Ozen 10-10 (50%)

East Chambers 10-11 (48%)

Hardin 12-15 (44%)

West Brook 9-12 (43%)

Kelly 8-13 (38%)

Hardin-Jefferson 7-14 (33%)

Silsbee 4-15 (21%)

Lumberton 4-16 (20%)

Buna 4-17 (19%)

« Last Edit: Today at 07:43:43 AM by WOS87 »  Report to moderator    Logged 

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WOS Class of '87, Rice U Class of '91

West Orange-Stark Mustangs

1986 and 1987 4A State Champions

18 consecutive wins against Orange and Jefferson county teams

22 consecutive district game wins

[uknowit2]

I realize this is just one way of looking at it but...

If a team is undefeated, say EC at 5-0, that means they put 5 losses in the L column of their opponents. Without those losses their combined record would be 10-6. While a winless team put 5 wins on their opponents records.

Just a thought.

[WOS87]

I realize this is just one way of looking at it but...

If a team is undefeated, say EC at 5-0, that means they put 5 losses in the L column of their opponents. Without those losses their combined record would be 10-6. While a winless team put 5 wins on their opponents records.

Just a thought.

Not so... as it says at the beginning of the post, the games vs. the team in question are not added in.  Those numbers are the records with the losses already taken out.... EC would therefore be 10-16 with the losses added back in...

Shepherd 0-5 minus the loss to EC = 0-4

Orangefield 0-5 minus the loss to EC = 0-4

Hamshire-Fannett 3-2 minus the loss to EC = 3-1

Hardin-Jefferson 3-2 minus the loss to EC = 3-1

Deweyville 4-2 minus the loss to EC = 4-1

0-4 + 0-4 + 3-1 + 3-1 + 4-1 = 10-11

[uknowit2]

My bad.

[Bigdog]

LOL.  Don't argue with the Master!!  ;D

[Guest Nederland Bandit]

Amen.

[Bigdog]

bump

[Guest piratefaithful]

Look at Lumberton's!! also look at Vidor's..very surprising..

[Bigdog]

Look at Lumberton's!! also look at Vidor's..very surprising..

[WH-BackInThaDay]

Nice thread. Very interesting stuff.

[Guest piratefaithful]

[CraigS]

Vidor 17-3 (85%) - 4 of their 5 opponents are undefeated

Dayton 15-6 (71%)

Hamshire-Fannett 14-6 (70%)

Nederland 14-7 (67%)

Bridge City 13-7 (65%)

Newton 10-6 (63%)

PN-G 13-8 (62%)

Orangefield 12-8 (60%)

Jasper 11-8 (58%)

WO-S 11-9 (55%)

Central 11-9 (55%)

Pt Arthur Memorial 11-9 (55%)

LC-M 11-10 (52%)

Kirbyville 10-10 (50%)

Ozen 10-10 (50%)

East Chambers 10-11 (48%)

West Brook 9-12 (43%)

Kelly 8-13 (38%)

Hardin-Jefferson 7-14 (33%)

Silsbee 4-15 (21%)

Lumberton 4-16 (20%)

Buna 4-17 (19%)

Not real sure this supports anything. Of the 22 schools on this list, 11 went to the playoff, and 11 did not, of the 11 that did.........

5 schools have a strength of schedule of over .500

6 schools have a strength of schedule of under .500

break it down even more......

(only the ones I'm aware of)

WOS - above .500

K'ville and Silsbee .500 or below

all three schools finished the playoffs in the exact same round........so does strength of schedule really matter. Most seem to think it prepares you for tougher competition, as it might.

Now look at it this way......I believe the SEC is by far the strongest conf. in the NCAA, a team with one or even 2 loses are better than anyone else in the country IMO...........however, USC, is constantly in the top 1-2 in the rankings. You have Florida now 0-2 in SEC........I still think they would contend against anyone in the country for the top spot on any given day.

Point being, is it that you are more prepared...........or more beat up! One could argue either point. With all of this said.......Go Tigers.....Geaux Tigers......and Good Luck Lumberton, I for one would like to see you in the playoffs!

[Guest maverick24]

Interesting I have said all along you are either a good team or a bad team no matter who you play. I heard about Lumberton's predistrict schedule not prepareing them for district. I mentioned the NCAA most of the big schools play cupcakes before confrence I dont think they are worried about getting prepared or not. They want wins and to work on what they do against a lesser team (a lesser team so they dont have to play to the other teams weakness but can work on their own strengths).  It also stands to reason some weak teams can only get games against better teams. Sometimes the weaker team wins and that bodes well for them. I think teams from Houston area play some of the local teams simply because they think they are better. I am sure they dont expect teams like Ned. or WOS to beat up on them but I am glad to see they have in the past. I think the best team wins at least 80% of the time (just my opinion) and the other 20% either injuries or a team playing flat may lose. Good luck to all and I am sure it will all work out by years end!!!!!

[bullets13]

this is good stuff... it certainly backs up a lot of arguments i've seen on here in the last few weeks.

also, on vidor... for a team who is traditionally not a powerhouse, i don't know that the fans should be that upset or surprised with what's going on so far this year.  they've obviously played quality opponents pretty much through and through.

[tvc184]

I said in another thread that Vidor's two district loses were to teams that were a combined 10-0. The schedule is just luck the way it falls but Vidor happened to draw two opponents that were playing some of the best football at the moment.

[Guest piratefaithful]

I said in another thread that Vidor's two district loses were to teams that were a combined 10-0. The schedule is just luck the way it falls but Vidor happened to draw two opponents that were playing some of the best football at the moment.

Good points...

[CraigS]

this is good stuff... it certainly backs up a lot of arguments i've seen on here in the last few weeks.

also, on vidor... for a team who is traditionally not a powerhouse, i don't know that the fans should be that upset or surprised with what's going on so far this year.  they've obviously played quality opponents pretty much through and through.

Again I ask, what does this prove based on the breakdown I showed earlier.......it doesn't seem to support more OR less success for hosting a strong OR weak schedule!

[bullets13]

it at least gives us something to gauge a record by.  it shows why not all 5-0's are the same. 

[Gasilla]

Again I ask, what does this prove based on the breakdown I showed earlier.......it doesn't seem to support more OR less success for hosting a strong OR weak schedule!

The problem is that you made your analysis based on one year in particular. This does not give you an accurate picture because you have to look at who those teams lost to (unless you want to look at how far the teams they lost to went). How did each of these teams compare in the playoffs the year before? That year would make a case FOR having the tougher schedule.

[CraigS]

it at least gives us something to gauge a record by.  it shows why not all 5-0's are the same. 

But what significant point does it make........as I've showed the teams with the strongest schedule didn't fair any better or worse than those with the weakest schedule.........in the playoffs! Silsbee was shown to have the 3rd weakest schedule of everyone, however, they were one play away from upsetting WOS last year, and finished in the same round as WOS.......Kirbyville is also pretty low in the strength of schedule, they got WHIPPED by WOS and Silsbee........yet finished in the same round!

I will speculate that this is really all about Lumberton being 5-0 and Nederland being 5-0. They may or may not be the same caliber of teams, only time will tell. However, regarless of that particular games outcome.........it's really where they finish in the playoffs.......if Lumberton loses to Ned. 49-0, and makes the playoffs, plays deeper into the playoffs than Ned...........I would still have to say, Lumberton would have had a more successful season!

As I went to post, someone stated my anylysis is based on only one year.......well, that all the stats that were given.......I based my results on the SAME information that was used to make the original comments. And NO, who you play in the playoffs doesn't matter, that's just luck of the draw. You either WIN or you LOSE! The team that goes the farther would be considered the most successful!

[Guest maverick24]

I like the info you have provided. Maybe this will take care of some of the talk about the past and we will all just focus on the game our team plays each week.

[Guest ECBucFan]

The major flaw in all of this is that the SIZE is not considered, just the raw record. If your opponents all have good records, but are a class smaller than you, that would be "stronger" than playing .500 teams a size LARGER than you?!?! No way!   

[UTfanatic]

Size doesn't matter. Just watch any ealy morning infomercial.

Really non-district games in HS football are to get you ready for for district play. Some teams take the high road and play quality opponents in non-district game to prepare. Others like to play the patsies and hope the winning helps develop a winning attitude. Either way is OK, but what teams do better once district paly starts? You decide.

If coaches do not win sometime, they're outta work.