Why Jasper has a good chance of going Division I

[WOS87]

OK, now that we're a week further along, the way I've calculated it,  Jasper now has about a 65% chance of going to the playoffs as the Division I rep for 21-3A. 

The current standings as of 10/20 are -

WO-S 4-0

Jasper 3-1

Kirbyville 3-1

H-F 2-2

Silsbee 2-2

H-J 1-3

OF 1-3

BC 0-4

Among the top 5, games that have already been played:

WO-S has beaten Silsbee, Kirbyville and H-F

Kirbyville has beaten Jasper

Jasper has beaten H-F

H-F has beaten Silsbee

There are 12 total district games remaining, only 4 of which I think are going to be crucial in deciding playoff contenders

The 8 less crucial games and their likely results: (if there is an upset in any of these games then you can throw the rest of this post out the window)

WO-S should beat BC and OF given that they've won big over teams who've handily beaten both of them

H-F should win over Orangefield and BC

Kirbyville should win over  BC

Silsbee should win over H-J

Jasper should win over H-J

The OF vs. H-J game could potentially go either way, but is most likely not going to factor in to the playoff race

if the above games go as expected the cumulative standings would then be:

WO-S 6-0

Kirbyville 4-1

Jasper 4-1

Silsbee 3-2

H-F 4-2

That leaves the 4 remaining games that will determine it all

H-F vs. Kirbyville

Jasper vs. Silsbee

WO-S vs. Jasper

Kirbyville vs. Silsbee

Chance of qualifying for playoffs with no major upsets

WO-S 100%

Kirbyville 69%

Jasper 69%

H-F 40%

Slsbee 23%

Chance of being the Division I rep

Jasper 64.6%

Silsbee 22.9%

WO-S 12.5%

16 Possible Outcomes

#1 - WO-S beats Jasper, Silsbee beats both Jasper and Kirbyville, H-F beats Kirbyville. 1st:WOS (7-0), 2nd:H-F (5-2), 3rd: D1-Silsbee (5-2)

#2 - WO-S beats Jasper, Silsbee beats both Jasper and Kirbyville, Kirbyville beats H-F. 1st:WOS (7-0), 2nd: D1-Silsbee (5-2), 3rd: Kirbyville (5-2)

#3 - WO-S beats Jasper, Silsbee beats Kirbyville and loses to Jasper, H-F beats Kirbyville. 1st:WOS (7-0), 2nd: D1-Jasper (5-2), 3rd: H-F (5-2)

#4 - WO-S beats Jasper, Silsbee beats Kirbyville and loses to Jasper, Kirbyville beats H-F. 1st: WOS (7-0), 2nd: Kirbyville (5-2), 3rd: D1-Jasper (5-2)

#5 - WO-S beats Jasper, Silsbee beats Jasper and loses to Kirbyville, H-F beats Kirbyville. 1st:D1-WOS (7-0), 2nd: H-F (5-2), 3rd: Kirbyville (5-2)

#6 - WO-S beats Jasper, Silsbee beats Jasper and loses to Kirbyville, Kirbyville beats H-F. 1st:WOS (7-0), 2nd: Kirbyville (6-1), 3rd: 3-way tie between Silsbee, Jasper and H-F (4-3)

#7 - WO-S beats Jasper, Silsbee loses to both Jasper and Kirbyville, H-F beats Kirbyville. 1st:WOS (7-0), 2nd: 3-way tie between H-F, Jasper and Kirbyville (5-2)

#8 -WO-S beats Jasper,  Silsbee loses to both Jasper and Kirbyville, Kirbyville beats H-F. 1st:WOS (7-0), 2nd: Kirbyville (6-1), 3rd:D1-Jasper (5-2)

#9 - Jasper beats WO-S, Silsbee beats both Jasper and Kirbyville, H-F beats Kirbyville. 1st:WOS (6-1), 2nd: 3-way tie between Jasper, H-F & Silsbee (5-2)

#10 - Jasper beats WO-S, Silsbee beats both Jasper and Kirbyville, Kirbyville beats H-F. 1st:WOS (6-1), 2nd: 3-way tie between Kirbyville, Jasper & Silsbee (5-2)

#11 - Jasper beats WO-S, Silsbee beats Kirbyville and loses to Jasper, H-F beats Kirbyville. 1st: D1-Jasper (6-1), 2nd: WO-S (6-1), 3rd: H-F (5-2)

#12 - Jasper beats WO-S, Silsbee beats Kirbyville and loses to Jasper, Kirbyville beats H-F. 1st: D1-Jasper (6-1), 2nd: WO-S (6-1) 3rd: Kirbyville (5-2)

#13 - Jasper beats WO-S, Silsbee beats Jasper and loses to Kirbyville, H-F beats Kirbyville. 1st: WOS (6-1), 2nd: 3-way tie between Kirbyville, Jasper & H-F (5-2)

#14 - Jasper beats WO-S, Silsbee beats Jasper and loses to Kirbyville, Kirbyville beats H-F. 1st:WOS (6-1), 2nd: Kirbyville (6-1), 3rd: D1-Jasper (5-2)

#15 - Jasper beats WO-S, Silsbee loses to both Jasper and Kirbyville, H-F beats Kirbyville. 1st: D1-Jasper (6-1), 2nd: WOS (6-1), 3rd: H-F (5-2)

#16 - Jasper beats WO-S,  Silsbee loses to both Jasper and Kirbyville, Kirbyville beats H-F. 1st:WO-S (6-1), 2nd: D1-Jasper (6-1), 3rd: Kirbyville (6-1)

[BearWolf]

great work WOS87, one positive karma for you ;D

[adminbaberuth]

Work with crazy numbers all day, come home and sign on for a little fun on SETEX message board. WOS87 post something very interesting,............ but I'm tired.

Great work WOS87.

[WOS87]

Updated and amended to placate the Jasper folk...  ;D

[Bulldog92]

I sure hope our kids aren't thinking about the playoffs right now. One week at a time. I wish I could be there to see the game. It could be a classic. Go Bulldogs... ;D

[Guest airitout123]

Very nice work.  Well put together.

[southern-thunder]

Hmm seems like last week I was saying that Jasper was going division I. You need to check you calculations though for instance in senario # 1 if WOS beats Jasper and Silsbee beats Kirbyville and Jasper, then Jasper would be 4-3 not 5-2.

[swampdude]

Thanks for the in-depth run down, WOS87!   I was trying to think of the playoff possibilities earlier this week and only got a headache out of it! ;D  I know that Dan Ray would love to get that D-I spot and I personally would like to see them get it.  There is still plenty of excitement before this is all hashed out.

[WOS87]

Thanks for the in-depth run down, WOS87!   I was trying to think of the playoff possibilities earlier this week and only got a headache out of it! ;D  I know that Dan Ray would love to get that D-I spot and I personally would like to see them get it.  There is still plenty of excitement before this is all hashed out.

D1 is looking to be tougher and tougher each week now...  it's looking like both defending 3A state champs (Liberty Hill and Liberty-Eylau) will be in the D1 bracket now along with Gilmer and Royse City.....

[KFDM COOP]

Giddings/WOS  Celina/Graham are my picks for D2.

[SETXsports Broadcaster]

Hey, can you work out the chances of a marriage staying together?

I got another headache

[WOS87]

Hey, can you work out the chances of a marriage staying together?

I got another headache

Do you need me to call you in something for that headache?  Seems like its been bothering you all weekend 

[HFmom]

would you guys mind explaining D1, D2, etc. to this mom?? i don't understand what that means as far as playoffs go?? i thought i might have had it figured out, i know that 3 teams from 21-3A will go to play offs....we have small 21-3A schools and large 21-3A schools...i thought maybe the larger schools were D1, but then i saw something about silsbee going D1 over WOS, and i would have guessed that WOS was bigger than silsbee??...so now i think i'm stupid and don't have a clue, please help me understand...lol!

[jdawg03]

would you guys mind explaining D1, D2, etc. to this mom?? i don't understand what that means as far as playoffs go?? i thought i might have had it figured out, i know that 3 teams from 21-3A will go to play offs....we have small 21-3A schools and large 21-3A schools...i thought maybe the larger schools were D1, but then i saw something about silsbee going D1 over WOS, and i would have guessed that WOS was bigger than silsbee??...so now i think i'm stupid and don't have a clue, please help me understand...lol!

You were originally correct...The Largest School from a district that makes the playoffs goes Division 1. The other two goes small school or Division 2.

WOS is actually the third largest school in 21-3a behind #1 Silsbee and #2 Jasper...Basically, if HF makes the playoffs they will be in Division 2, which is one round longer due to the fact that there are twice as many teams in D2.

[AggiesAreWe]

You were originally correct...The Largest School from a district that makes the playoffs goes Division 1. The other two goes small school or Division 2.

WOS is actually the third largest school in 21-3a behind #1 Silsbee and #2 Jasper...Basically, if HF makes the playoffs they will be in Division 2, which is one round longer due to the fact that there are twice as many teams in D2.

Not bad jdawg03. You seem to know a little bit about sports.  ;D

[SETXsports Broadcaster]

Not bad jdawg03. You seem to know a little bit about sports.  ;D

He lucks out every so often ;D

[HFmom]

You were originally correct...The Largest School from a district that makes the playoffs goes Division 1. The other two goes small school or Division 2.

WOS is actually the third largest school in 21-3a behind #1 Silsbee and #2 Jasper...Basically, if HF makes the playoffs they will be in Division 2, which is one round longer due to the fact that there are twice as many teams in D2.

Thank you so much...I don't feel so dumb after all!! I just assumed WOS was the larger school in 21-3A and that's where I messed up. Thanks again!

[kicker]

Thank you so much...I don't feel so dumb after all!! I just assumed WOS was the larger school in 21-3A and that's where I messed up. Thanks again!

You were actually right. You just didnt know WOS was the 3rd smallest school. Its kind of funny, alot of people think we are a huge 3A because we win alot of games. Thats not the case obviously.

[stangchain]

And next year, we will be number 4 if the alignment stays the same.  Bridge City now has more students than us!

[kicker]

And next year, we will be number 4 if the alignment stays the same.  Bridge City now has more students than us!

I do know one thing stangchain. We have TONS of kids in our elementary and JH. Its like a baby boom. If you could, you need to research this, its the truth. I say we get back to 4A within 10 years. 8) By the way, have you seen the talent we have from the pee-wee leagues to 8th grade?? We aint gonna be short on talent for atleast 12 years. 8) It's not my way, its not your way, its the MUSTANG WAY! 8)

[stangchain]

I do know one thing stangchain. We have TONS of kids in our elementary and JH. Its like a baby boom. If you could, you need to research this, its the truth. I say we get back to 4A within 10 years. 8) By the way, have you seen the talent we have from the pee-wee leagues to 8th grade?? We aint gonna be short on talent for atleast 12 years. 8) It's not my way, its not your way, its the MUSTANG WAY! 8)

I have heard that our 8th grade team has linemen and our 9th grade team has a phenomenal QB.  I only hope that the kids stay in our school district.  It seems that they leave in Jr. High.  We have some outstanding high school teachers.  If the administration doesn't change, I'm afraid a lot will leave, including coaches.  I don't know any of this for a fact, only have heard people talk.  I did see the numbers turned in for realignment next year, though, and we are less than BC.  However, if the Inspire 12 comes through like they promised, I believe there will be an increase in our school district.  Whether we will ever have enough to go back to 4A or not, I don't know.  I hope I don't get hammered for this, but I wouldn't mind WOS and LCM  merging and have a super school.  A part of me would like to see that and another part would miss the WOS.....I love the silver and blue.  Of course, I'm sure that's how West Orange and Stark felt before they merged.  I guess we could start a thread for that, huh?  Out of curiousity?

[kicker]

I have heard that our 8th grade team has linemen and our 9th grade team has a phenomenal QB.  I only hope that the kids stay in our school district.  It seems that they leave in Jr. High.  We have some outstanding high school teachers.  If the administration doesn't change, I'm afraid a lot will leave, including coaches.  I don't know any of this for a fact, only have heard people talk.  I did see the numbers turned in for realignment next year, though, and we are less than BC.  However, if the Inspire 12 comes through like they promised, I believe there will be an increase in our school district.  Whether we will ever have enough to go back to 4A or not, I don't know.  I hope I don't get hammered for this, but I wouldn't mind WOS and LCM  merging and have a super school.  A part of me would like to see that and another part would miss the WOS.....I love the silver and blue.  Of course, I'm sure that's how West Orange and Stark felt before they merged.   I guess we could start a thread for that, huh?  Out of curiousity?

Well, I dont know about merging, but what would make sense, is to have one school district. Orange ISD. You could put WOS LCM and Orangefield in one district. For economic reasons.

[swampdude]

stangchain - I can tell you that the merger of West Orange High and Stark High was not popular among anybody except the school board!  Talk about a hot Friday night.........Stark vs. West Orange!!!  (Tigers and Chiefs for those still wet behind the ears ;D)  ..........you were right, this needs it's own thread!    

an old West Orange Chief!  Purple Power, Pride!