The 21-3A Playoff possibilities

[WOS87]

I went through the numbers today and 21-3A is looking more complicated than 22-4A...

There are currently only 5 teams that have a mathematical chance to qualify for the playoffs.  The best Orangefield could do is be in a 3-way tie for 3rd place, but there is no possible way for them to win that tiebreaker.

Here goes:

There are 8 district games remaining for the district meaning there are 256 different possible combinations of outcomes for those 8 games.

West Orange-Stark qualifies in all 256 possible outcomes (100%)

Kirbyville qualifies in 220 of the 256 outcomes (85.9%)

Jasper qualifies in 130.66 of the 256 outcomes (51.0%)

Silsbee qualifies in 125.66 of the 256 outcomes (49.1%)

Hamshire-Fannett qualifies in 35.66 of the 256 outcomes (13.9%)

The chances of each of the following combinations of teams qualifying is:

(105.66 out of 256) WO-S, Kirbyville and Silsbee 41.3%  [silsbee would go DI]

(103.66 out of 256) WO-S, Kirbyville and Jasper  40.5% [Jasper would go DI]

(16 out of 256) WO-S, Jasper and Hamshire-Fannett 6.2% [Jasper would go DI]

(11 out of 256) WO-S, Jasper and Silsbee 4.3%  [silsbee would go DI]

(10.66 out of 256) WO-S, Kirbyville and Hamshire-Fannett 4.2%  [WO-S would go DI]

(9 out of 256) WO-S, Silsbee and Hamshire-Fannett 3.5%  [silsbee would go DI]

So there is still actually a very small probability that WO-S could end up going Division I...

[Guest 071904]

So who votes that Silsbee will make the playoffs?

Who Votes Jasper?

Who Votes Hamshire?

[Guest 071904]

With K-ville having Silsbee and Hamshire left, what is the chance of them losing out and not gettig into the playoffs?????????????????

[southern-thunder]

Jasper Div I

WO-S winner

Kirbyville runner up

[grizzly62]

WOS

KVILLE

JASPER

THATS HOW ITS GOING TO BE.......

[HORNSFAN86]

So who votes that Silsbee will make the playoffs?

Who Votes Jasper?

Who Votes Hamshire?

I think if HF can right the ship and win out, there is chance they will make it. It will

be tall order, HF has a real banged up team right now. I believe we lost our starting QB & LB

for the season. I will say this of their backups they stepped in and played pretty good. I wish

those injured players well and God Speed on their recovery. 

[Land95]

Jasper D I

WO-S  Dis. Champ.

K-ville runner up

[SETXsports Broadcaster]

Ok

If Jaspers chances of qualifing are 51.0  and

Silsbee chances of qualifing are 49.1

then why are the chances of WO-S Kirbyville Jasper less than the combination

of WO-S Kirbyville and Silsbee

41.3 %

40.5 %  respectfully?

here comes that headache again

[unrealwithit]

WOS

KVILLE

JASPER

THATS HOW ITS GOING TO BE.......

LOL you make me laugh.. KVILLE? common

[Bobkat]

I know, I know...but if Orangefield wins out, do they still have any chance mathmatically of making the playoffs!

[KFDM COOP]

These last 2 weeks are going to be exciting to see who gets the final 2 spots!!

[Silsbee92]

Battle of the Cats' in the bowl!!!!    8)

[WOS92]

Ok

If Jaspers chances of qualifing are 51.0  and

Silsbee chances of qualifing are 49.1

then why are the chances of WO-S Kirbyville Jasper less than the combination

of WO-S Kirbyville and Silsbee

41.3 %

40.5 %  respectfully?

here comes that headache again

I'm guessing it's because Jasper's chances of qualifying along with HF are a few percentage points higher than Silsbee qualifying with HF. Seems perfectly logical to me.

[Guest dailynews]

Hey WOS can you give us an updated Playoff Possibility after last nights games.

[Bulldog92]

Hey WOS can you give us an updated Playoff Possibility after last nights games.

If you look around a bit on the board you can find it, but here it is:

WOS and Kirbyville are IN

HF is OUT

Silsbee is if if:

*Silsbee beats Jasper and Kirbyville beats HF

or

*Silsbee beats Jasper by 17+ and HF beats Kirbyville

Jasper is in if:

*Jasper beats Silsbee

or

*Silsbee beats Jasper by less than 17 and HF beats Kirbyville

[redheaded stepchild]

Bulldog you are right on all accounts except that HF is not out of it. If Silsbee beats Jasper by 16+ and HF beats Kirbyville then all three (Jasper, Silsbee, and HF) will be tied at 4-3 in district and all three will be tied on points with 0, And a coin toss would decide he final playoff spot. HF is +21 (35-14 on SIlsbee), and -17 on Jasper(19-36) but district has 16 point maximum so only way Silsbee can make playoffs is HF losses to Kirbyville then Silsbee beats Jasper Silsbee would be in on head to head because HF would not be in the tie. But if HF beats KV then Silsbee can only hope for a coin toss if they can possibly beat Jasper by 16+. We in HF sure hope they can and are rooting for the Tigers in that one.

[WOS92]

Bulldog you are right on all accounts except that HF is not out of it. If Silsbee beats Jasper by 16+ and HF beats Kirbyville then all three (Jasper, Silsbee, and HF) will be tied at 4-3 in district and all three will be tied on points with 0, And a coin toss would decide he final playoff spot. HF is +21 (35-14 on SIlsbee), and -17 on Jasper(19-36) but district has 16 point maximum so only way Silsbee can make playoffs is HF losses to Kirbyville then Silsbee beats Jasper Silsbee would be in on head to head because HF would not be in the tie. But if HF beats KV then Silsbee can only hope for a coin toss if they can possibly beat Jasper by 16+. We in HF sure hope they can and are rooting for the Tigers in that one.

I don't see Silsbee or Jasper winning by that much. That's a really tight matchup - possibly the tightest matchup in this district in years (besides HJ and BC, but on the other end of the spectrum ).