3A Division I and II Playoff Projections going in to Week 10

[WOS87]

3A Division I Playoff Projection going in to Week 10

(teams listed in RED have clinched that particular berth)

3A Division II Playoff Projection going in to Week 10

(teams listed in RED have clinched that particular berth)

[KFDM COOP]

The ONLY possible way Giddings could go D1 is if Navasota loses to both Caldwell in Week 9  AND La Grange in Week 10, which I guess is possible.

Cladwell beat Navasota Friday Night. If LaGrange beats Navasota then Giddings goes D1.

[kicker]

The ONLY possible way Giddings could go D1 is if Navasota loses to both Caldwell in Week 9  AND La Grange in Week 10, which I guess is possible.

Cladwell beat Navasota Friday Night. If LaGrange beats Navasota then Gididngs goes D1.

So then who would we get out of that district? Navasota?

[grizzly62]

LOOKN GOOD

[KFDM COOP]

So then who would we get out of that district? Navasota?

Caldwell i think..They are good to. They tore Navasota up.

[WOS87]

If La Grange beats Navasota this week, Giddings goes as the Division I rep, Caldwell will take the 23C slot in the Division II bracket above, and La Grange will take the 23R slot.

[KFDM COOP]

87 do you think this is possible? I think LaGrange can beat them.

[RonBurgundy68]

How on God's green earth can a 1-8 team make it to the playoffs?  ??? ??? ???

[3ABirdMan]

How on God's green earth can a 1-8 team make it to the playoffs?  ??? ??? ???

Thanks to the UIL's infinite wisdom, District 5 consists of Borger, Canyon, Dalhart, and Perryton.  Win ONE GAME in District and you're in! >

[WOS87]

How on God's green earth can a 1-8 team make it to the playoffs?  ??? ??? ???

1-8 Borger faces 2-7 Perryton for the 3rd playoff spot this week.  Perryton has lost to three 2A teams in nondistrict...  Borger's one win was over a 4A team so I picked Borger over Perryton....  We shall see this Friday.

[WOS87]

87 do you think this is possible? I think LaGrange can beat them.

It's definitely possible but I would be surprised if it happened.  La Grange got beaten by 28 points by both Giddings and Caldwell.  Navasota played Giddings their closest game of the season, only losing 14-21, and came within 14 of Caldwell this weekend.

[WOS87]

We should be able to hold our own against Giddings as they haven't been as dominant this season as they were last year.  They're averaging 36 points per game and allowing 13.

At this time last season, playing the exact same opponents, they were averaging 39 points per game and allowing 12 (and Wimberley and Hutto were MUCH better last year when Giddings played them)

On paper, I say Jasper could probably give them a run for their money as I have Jasper up in the top 10 now in the 3A power ratings....

[Homer]

!!!!

[STiger85]

You got one projection wrong. Silsbee will be playing Splendora not Jasper. Just tought I would tell you so you could get it right.

[Lumberjack]

How on God's green earth can a 1-8 team make it to the playoffs?  ??? ??? ???

Check this out. If Rusk upsets Crockett by 15 or more and Huntington beats Center, there will be a coin toss to determine 3rd place. I never thought I'd say this, but Huntington is in the playoff hunt!

Well, at least to some degree. ;D

[SuperflySnuka]

How do you have Kirbyville rated so low when it BEAT two of your top 10 teams, Carthage and Jasper?  Plus, even though it didn't count, Kirbyville "beat" Diboll in a scrimmage.  Kirbyville's only loss is to WOS in which there is no shame in that.  Nobody beats them from 3A during the regular season.

Just wondering.

We should be able to hold our own against Giddings as they haven't been as dominant this season as they were last year.  They're averaging 36 points per game and allowing 13.

At this time last season, playing the exact same opponents, they were averaging 39 points per game and allowing 12 (and Wimberley and Hutto were MUCH better last year when Giddings played them)

On paper, I say Jasper could probably give them a run for their money as I have Jasper up in the top 10 now in the 3A power ratings....

[WOS87]

It's all math... the numbers derive themselves

Here's the way it works:

Kirbyville has played 9 3A Opponents

they beat Cleveland by 27.  Cleveland's rating of -2.10 + 27 = 24.90

they beat Carthage by 1. Carthage's rating of 33.75 + 1 = 34.75

they beat Liberty by 18.  Liberty's rating of -1.31 + 18 = 16.69

they beat Jasper by 15. Jasper's rating of 35.03 + 15 = 50.03

they lost to WOS by 24.  WOS' rating of 49.73 - 24 = 25.73

they beat Orangefield by 7.  Orangefield's rating of 11.20 + 7 = 18.20

they beat Hardin-Jefferson by 36.  H-J's rating of -8.90 + 36 = 27.10

they beat Bridge City by 42.  BC's rating of -14.99 + 42 = 27.01

they beat Silsbee by 1.  Silsbee's rating of 27.87 + 1 = 28.87

The average rating for all 9 games is:

(24.90 + 34.75 + 16.69 + 50.03 + 25.73 + 18.20 + 27.10 + 27.01 + 28.87)/9

= 28.14  which is Kirbyville's rating. 

The 16.69 and 18.20 performance ratings in the Liberty and Orangefield games hurt your rating the most.  Whereas the 15 pt win over Jasper was the highest rated game of the season at 50.03.  Barely winning over a low rated team can hurt you a lot more than barely losing to a high rated team.

[SuperflySnuka]

The math is correct, because it's math.  But, I'm saying the formula is flawed.  I would think that there has to be another "weight" included so you don't have a one loss team behind teams it's already beaten who also have more than one loss.  But, that's why you play it on the field.  The playoff system sorts everything out for us.  We need a playoff system in NCAA. 

Good work on your rankings and playoff projections though.  Interesting.