Is United going back to 6A?

[wbfan]

They had identical numbers to West Brook back in 2018. Why the quick dropoff?

[BMTSoulja1]

11 minutes ago, wbfan said:

They had identical numbers to West Brook back in 2018. Why the quick dropoff?

Well, not really identical, but really close.  The cutoff was really close to both BU and WB.... and there was probably a difference of about 100 or less kids between WB and BU back then.  With that being said, I think the Cutoff will go up which probably will mean WB will drop to 5a D1 and BU will remain the same.  That's my guess on it.  Meaning, WB, BU, and PA will probably be in the same district. 

[BH85]

21 minutes ago, BMTSoulja1 said:

Well, not really identical, but really close.  The cutoff was really close to both BU and WB.... and there was probably a difference of about 100 or less kids between WB and BU back then.  With that being said, I think the Cutoff will go up which probably will mean WB will drop to 5a D1 and BU will remain the same.  That's my guess on it.  Meaning, WB, BU, and PA will probably be in the same district. 

The basketball thread doesn't need to see this.

[82 5A State Champs]

34 minutes ago, BMTSoulja1 said:

Well, not really identical, but really close.  The cutoff was really close to both BU and WB.... and there was probably a difference of about 100 or less kids between WB and BU back then.  With that being said, I think the Cutoff will go up which probably will mean WB will drop to 5a D1 and BU will remain the same.  That's my guess on it.  Meaning, WB, BU, and PA will probably be in the same district. 

Haha! West Brook will wreck shop if that happens. Lol

[BMTSoulja1]

7 minutes ago, 82 5A State Champs said:

Haha! West Brook will wreck shop if that happens. Lol

🤷🏾‍♂️

[navydawg31]

If wb drops down to 5a it will be a sad day in setx… would have 0 schools in 6A. 

[Yeoj]

United is more likely to come back to 6A than West Brook going down to 5A. Those in the know how United numbers dropped for that last realignment.

[Yeoj]

1 hour ago, BMTSoulja1 said:

Well, not really identical, but really close.  The cutoff was really close to both BU and WB.... and there was probably a difference of about 100 or less kids between WB and BU back then.  With that being said, I think the Cutoff will go up which probably will mean WB will drop to 5a D1 and BU will remain the same.  That's my guess on it.  Meaning, WB, BU, and PA will probably be in the same district. 

This is more like you're hoping and wishing on a prayer.

[BMTSoulja1]

26 minutes ago, Yeoj said:

United is more likely to come back to 6A than West Brook going down to 5A. Those in the know how United numbers dropped for that last realignment.

But we both know the district cutoff numbers will increase.  So what are you talking about?

[Yeoj]

5 minutes ago, BMTSoulja1 said:

But we both know the district cutoff numbers will increase.  So what are you talking about?

You might want to ask people in the pear orchard what type of numbers United is going to turn in. They got some of their kids back.

[Cougar14.2]

43 minutes ago, navydawg31 said:

If wb drops down to 5a it will be a sad day in setx… would have 0 schools in 6A. 

It's eventually going to happen. The way the population trends are now if you're not in a major metro area then you're not going to have the enrollment for the top class. Other SETX schools like Nederland will eventually drop to 4A-D1 because of this. When two districts like Cypress and Katy can alone take up 20+ of the approximate 250 6A spots and schools like Crosby and Barbers Hill are heading towards enrollments of 3,000 it's not hard to predict what the landscape will look like in the next decade or so in the 4A/5A classes. 

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

1 hour ago, Yeoj said:

You might want to ask people in the pear orchard what type of numbers United is going to turn in. They got some of their kids back.

It would behoove United to make the playoffs again this year if they're moving back up to 6A. 

[Bigdog]

1 hour ago, Cougar14.2 said:

It's eventually going to happen. The way the population trends are now if you're not in a major metro area then you're not going to have the enrollment for the top class. Other SETX schools like Nederland will eventually drop to 4A-D1 because of this. When two districts like Cypress and Katy can alone take up 20+ of the approximate 250 6A spots and schools like Crosby and Barbers Hill are heading towards enrollments of 3,000 it's not hard to predict what the landscape will look like in the next decade or so in the 4A/5A classes. 

Nederland isn't going anywhere,  Ned and PNG's numbers have been steady or slightly decreasing the last few realignments .   They have been in the middle of the 5a  numbers  for years.   There are still new housing additions and houses going up in both towns.

[Cougar14.2]

42 minutes ago, Bigdog said:

Nederland isn't going anywhere,  Ned and PNG's numbers have been steady or slightly decreasing the last few realignments .   They have been in the middle of the 5a  numbers  for years.   There are still new housing additions and houses going up in both towns.

Nederland enrollment last 4 realignments:

2014 - 1,625

2016 - 1,596

2018 - 1,546

2020 - 1,451

Nederland's enrollment used to be 600+ kids over the 4A cutoff line. This last alignment cycle they were only 215 kids over the 4A cutoff. You're not in the middle of 5A anymore. They're about to be even closer to the cutoff come October. There may be some new housing additions but they aren't helping your enrollment. Ned has lost about 100 kids per cycle to the cutoff the last four realignments. 

Like you said, Ned's numbers are "steady or slightly decreasing" while the suburbs around the state are exploding. See Lamar Randle, Grand Oaks, Shadow Creek, Katy Paetow, Katy Jordan and Cypress Bridgeland who all just recently opened or will open this year with 5A/6A numbers in the Houston area. Cy-Fair already has plans for another school and it's only a matter of time until Humble ISD builds another one to relieve their overcrowding.  

In 2014 Nederland had over 100 more kids than Crosby, after this alignment Crosby will probably have over 500 more kids than Nederland and be about 700 kids over the 4A cutoff. 4A-D1 in an inevitability for Nederland considering their stagnant growth levels. That's no knock, it just it what it is. Nothing wrong with dropping down to where your enrollment allows you to, I'm actually hoping Crosby somehow comes in under the D1 cutoff. 

 

[Separation Scientist]

Wow, I kept waiting to hear "OOOOoooo, BU is gonna get KILLED by North Shore!!!!" 

Not even a peep. 

 

[409PNG25]

png has close to 500 freshman this year.one of there biggest classes in a while.

[Austin1985]

2 hours ago, Separation Scientist said:

Wow, I kept waiting to hear "OOOOoooo, BU is gonna get KILLED by North Shore!!!!" 

Not even a peep. 

 

That's a given though lol.  With BISD having an Early College HS, which stands alone as far as numbers go, I don't see BU going back up but I do see WB dropping which will be sweet relief for them not having to chase the NS's and the Atascosita's of the world.  But, like PAM found out, 5A ain't sweet and sometimes, like in the case of Temple, programs drop too and prevent an assumed dominance

[BMTSoulja1]

2 minutes ago, Austin1985 said:

That's a given though lol.  With BISD having an Early College HS, which stands alone as far as numbers go, I don't see BU going back up but I do see WB dropping which will be sweet relief for them not having to chase the NS's and the Atascosita's of the world.  But, like PAM found out, 5A ain't sweet and sometimes, like in the case of Temple, programs drop too and prevent an assumed dominance

But the enrollment at the ECHS is not substantially and haven’t really increased much since it’s inception…

[Austin1985]

Just now, BMTSoulja1 said:

But the enrollment at the ECHS is not substantially and haven’t really increased much since it’s inception…

Just making an observation.  We shall see.  Also, with the explosion of the NE, N, and NW suburbs around Houston, maybe the 6A/5A cutoff will go up causing WB to drop.....

 

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

4 minutes ago, Austin1985 said:

That's a given though lol.  With BISD having an Early College HS, which stands alone as far as numbers go, I don't see BU going back up but I do see WB dropping which will be sweet relief for them not having to chase the NS's and the Atascosita's of the world.  But, like PAM found out, 5A ain't sweet and sometimes, like in the case of Temple, programs drop too and prevent an assumed dominance

Would love for WB to drop, more comp in district for sure, not just football. 

[BMTSoulja1]

Just now, Austin1985 said:

Just making an observation.  We shall see.  Also, with the explosion of the NE, N, and NW suburbs around Houston, maybe the 6A/5A cutoff will go up causing WB to drop.....

 

That’s exactly what I was telling @Yeoj .  I think the cutoff #’s go up…

[Separation Scientist]

55 minutes ago, Austin1985 said:

That's a given though lol.  

That was not aimed at BU. King Cougar 14.2 and others went to great lengths to gleefully illustrate that BH was going to get murdered by North Shore in the future, but he and others remain stone cold silent when it applies to BU.

You are right, its a given. NS beats everyone except Westlake and maybe Katy. I still think though that the NS's and Katys end up in a 7A.   

[NHSBulldogFan]

10 hours ago, Bigdog said:

Nederland isn't going anywhere,  Ned and PNG's numbers have been steady or slightly decreasing the last few realignments .   They have been in the middle of the 5a  numbers  for years.   There are still new housing additions and houses going up in both towns.

should continue to see around 1500 for the next several realignments...the problem is there is such tremendous growth in the Metro Areas that a drop to 4A as Coug put it is inevitable but we will still be solidly 5A D2 for the next several realignments

[purpleeagle]

PN=G has very little wiggle room to group w. They are hemmed in by Pt. Arthur on one side, Nederland on one side, and the mash and Neches river on the other side. 

[Cougar14.2]

12 hours ago, Separation Scientist said:

That was not aimed at BU. King Cougar 14.2 and others went to great lengths to gleefully illustrate that BH was going to get murdered by North Shore in the future, but he and others remain stone cold silent when it applies to BU.

You are right, its a given. NS beats everyone except Westlake and maybe Katy. I still think though that the NS's and Katys end up in a 7A.   

Again, for whatever reason I'm living in your head. Only and idiot wouldn't know why I didn't need to say BU would be killed my North Shore:

2018 - Beaumont United 0  North Shore 63

2019 - Beaumont United 14  North Shore 42