District 10-4A-1 Predictions

[texbuzz]

On 9/28/2021 at 3:16 PM, Hagar said:

See Huffman done moved up to #9 in the State.  That’ll play head games with some.  Put a thumping on a pretty good LaMarque team (31-7).  Imo this years Falcons may be better than last years.  It’ll take a big effort for anyone to knock them off.

Slow day at the office...might just type up a long post...

Huffman V. La Marque

La Marque - This years La Marque team was way better than last year.  They played very physical but mistakes and tempo did them in.  Punt coverage gave Huffman a short field twice and the Huffman D-Line isn't big but fast.  It was disruptive.

Huffman - Huffman knows they don't have big lineman. On both sides of the ball. Wisely, they don't try to play big.  Speed, technique, and scheme has been the focus.  The O-Line for the La Marque game included a couple backups, a JV player that got promoted, and a player moved to guard from tackle. This was not their best performance by far but they know what they got.  Injuries have been brutal (always the case) but the bye week was right on time.  Expect some to be back fully and some may be on a "pitch count" for LCM.

LCM and Huffman comparison data

I like to run numbers, in a limited fashion, on teams to try and figure out how good (or bad) they really are.  Its kinda silly to compare individual games, even against the same opponent and then draw out a conclusion from that.  Too many moving parts.  So, what numbers matter?  I lean towards:

• Quality of opponent  (I like MaxPreps Texas rankings for this number.  No opinions, only data).
• PA/PF

Quality of opponent - LCM has played a tougher schedule.  Opponents on average are about 25% better ranked than HH opponents.  WOS was the best opponent by far and that was reflected in the score.  If you remove the WOS game (not counting Woodville non-game of course) the opponent ranking is pretty even with Huffman, if not slightly better.  By the numbers, the Quality of Opponent for LCM and Huffman match up pretty close.  If they were wildly different, that could be factored in.  At this point, its a wash....Unless something weird happens at Jasper.

PA/PF - LCM has allowed almost double the points than HH. Remove the WOS game you would need to pull the Navasota game for HH to try (gets silly here) and do an even comparison.  Numbers stay the same.  Huffman defense allows fewer points than LCM against comparable opponents.  If you would like to flatten the data a bit, take the Points Scored / Points Allowed and you get 1.98 for LCM. They outscore their opponents at that rate.  Huffman factor is 6.3.  That is a big difference.  Do I think Huffman is 3 times better than LCM...absolutely not.  But if you are trying to forecast, its a big difference.

Matchups

Before you say it, I know "thats why they play the game".  This is all just tomfoolery and speculation.  It is certainly decided on the grass on Friday nights.  But I do like poring over this stuff.

LCM Off / HH Def - LCM run game has an impressive threat with #7.  He is quick and has good vision.  A big factor for his success is #9 running ability also.  He reads the option pretty consistently. He has to be taken into account.  The O-Line moves the line of scrimmage well and creates big lanes.  HH D-Line is fast and sets up blitzes from different LBs and OLBs.  The LCM QB does tend to bail on the pocket quick but it doesn't look like LCM picks up blitzes as well.  LCM passing game is built off their run game.  Short throws with a couple crossing routes.  They have a couple players that are getting good YAC.  LCM rarely throws deep and when they do, its not very successful.  The run defense for HH is better than I expected so far but this will be the best rushing attack they have seen.  They will get to the ball carrier faster than most teams LCM has seen this year but #7 runs through poor tackling.  He will be productive but if the HH defense plays as fast as they have been, they could force LCM to throw the ball a bit more.  If that is the case, HH should match up well with the quick pass game and dominate the deep threat.  If both teams play to their strengths, this should be an even match.

HH Off / LCM Def - As goes #7 for HH, so goes the offense.  He is far from the only athlete on this offense but he is a great athlete in a great position.  His ability to turn bad situations into gains has been nice to see.  While Huffman doesn't have a running back as productive as LCM, they do have some depth and options.  The O-line has been bitten by the injury bug but it is expected to heal up before the game.  The line plays fast and is better from a technique perspective than last year.  They do an excellent job of picking up the blitz.  Pass protection is better than expected.  That could also be due to the receiver corps.  They average 15 yards per completion with quite a few deep balls.  They are fast, and get great looks on intermediate routes.  Once the deep threat is established, the intermediate routes have opened up very well.  The Huffman passing game is probably the biggest advantage I see for the matchups.  Be consistent on the ground, pass to move the ball and score quick.

Prediction

I think predictions are kinda dumb because so many things happen.  Officiating, injuries, weirdos rushing the field (looking at you Bridge City).  But, if it plays out according to what I see...

Huffman 32

LCM 20

If I am not factoring something in, by all means let me know.

[texbuzz]

On 9/29/2021 at 8:52 AM, Hagar said:

Some of us goofy folks (me for sure) decided Livingston wasn’t that good this year based on the squeaky win over OF.  I’ve re-evaluated that, being the great prognosticator I am.  😂😂😂😂😂

All opinions are adjustable depending on the availability of new information and the size of that dude at the other end of the bar.

[texbuzz]

4 hours ago, Hagar said:

Btw, who do you like in the LCM/Jasper game?  We agree LCM much improved, but I think the Jasper D will make the difference and Dawgs will win a close one.

I think LCM will beat Jasper by more than 7.  Closer to 14.  If I am wrong....please see my other post about opinions.

[Tiger33]

4 hours ago, Hagar said:

Btw, who do you like in the LCM/Jasper game?  We agree LCM much improved, but I think the Jasper D will make the difference and Dawgs will win a close one.

I guess we will find out tomorrow night. The have LCM ranked 18 and Vidor 25 and Huffman 9

[Hagar]

16 minutes ago, LCMAlumtiger32 said:

I guess we will find out tomorrow night. The have LCM ranked 18 and Vidor 25 and Huffman 9

Will be a good test for the Bears, and I certainly won’t be surprised if they win.  The new Coach appears to have turned things around.  If you’re at the game, hope you keep the updates coming.  It’s my main game to follow.

[NoNeckNic479]

9 minutes ago, texbuzz said:

Slow day at the office...might just type up a long post...

Huffman V. La Marque

La Marque - This years La Marque team was way better than last year.  They played very physical but mistakes and tempo did them in.  Punt coverage gave Huffman a short field twice and the Huffman D-Line isn't big but fast.  It was disruptive.

Huffman - Huffman knows they don't have big lineman. On both sides of the ball. Wisely, they don't try to play big.  Speed, technique, and scheme has been the focus.  The O-Line for the La Marque game included a couple backups, a JV player that got promoted, and a player moved to guard from tackle. This was not their best performance by far but they know what they got.  Injuries have been brutal (always the case) but the bye week was right on time.  Expect some to be back fully and some may be on a "pitch count" for LCM.

LCM and Huffman comparison data

I like to run numbers, in a limited fashion, on teams to try and figure out how good (or bad) they really are.  Its kinda silly to compare individual games, even against the same opponent and then draw out a conclusion from that.  Too many moving parts.  So, what numbers matter?  I lean towards:

• Quality of opponent  (I like MaxPreps Texas rankings for this number.  No opinions, only data).
• PA/PF

Quality of opponent - LCM has played a tougher schedule.  Opponents on average are about 25% better ranked than HH opponents.  WOS was the best opponent by far and that was reflected in the score.  If you remove the WOS game (not counting Woodville non-game of course) the opponent ranking is pretty even with Huffman, if not slightly better.  By the numbers, the Quality of Opponent for LCM and Huffman match up pretty close.  If they were wildly different, that could be factored in.  At this point, its a wash....Unless something weird happens at Jasper.

PA/PF - LCM has allowed almost double the points than HH. Remove the WOS game you would need to pull the Navasota game for HH to try (gets silly here) and do an even comparison.  Numbers stay the same.  Huffman defense allows fewer points than LCM against comparable opponents.  If you would like to flatten the data a bit, take the Points Scored / Points Allowed and you get 1.98 for LCM. They outscore their opponents at that rate.  Huffman factor is 6.3.  That is a big difference.  Do I think Huffman is 3 times better than LCM...absolutely not.  But if you are trying to forecast, its a big difference.

Matchups

Before you say it, I know "thats why they play the game".  This is all just tomfoolery and speculation.  It is certainly decided on the grass on Friday nights.  But I do like poring over this stuff.

LCM Off / HH Def - LCM run game has an impressive threat with #7.  He is quick and has good vision.  A big factor for his success is #9 running ability also.  He reads the option pretty consistently. He has to be taken into account.  The O-Line moves the line of scrimmage well and creates big lanes.  HH D-Line is fast and sets up blitzes from different LBs and OLBs.  The LCM QB does tend to bail on the pocket quick but it doesn't look like LCM picks up blitzes as well.  LCM passing game is built off their run game.  Short throws with a couple crossing routes.  They have a couple players that are getting good YAC.  LCM rarely throws deep and when they do, its not very successful.  The run defense for HH is better than I expected so far but this will be the best rushing attack they have seen.  They will get to the ball carrier faster than most teams LCM has seen this year but #7 runs through poor tackling.  He will be productive but if the HH defense plays as fast as they have been, they could force LCM to throw the ball a bit more.  If that is the case, HH should match up well with the quick pass game and dominate the deep threat.  If both teams play to their strengths, this should be an even match.

HH Off / LCM Def - As goes #7 for HH, so goes the offense.  He is far from the only athlete on this offense but he is a great athlete in a great position.  His ability to turn bad situations into gains has been nice to see.  While Huffman doesn't have a running back as productive as LCM, they do have some depth and options.  The O-line has been bitten by the injury bug but it is expected to heal up before the game.  The line plays fast and is better from a technique perspective than last year.  They do an excellent job of picking up the blitz.  Pass protection is better than expected.  That could also be due to the receiver corps.  They average 15 yards per completion with quite a few deep balls.  They are fast, and get great looks on intermediate routes.  Once the deep threat is established, the intermediate routes have opened up very well.  The Huffman passing game is probably the biggest advantage I see for the matchups.  Be consistent on the ground, pass to move the ball and score quick.

Prediction

I think predictions are kinda dumb because so many things happen.  Officiating, injuries, weirdos rushing the field (looking at you Bridge City).  But, if it plays out according to what I see...

Huffman 32

LCM 20

If I am not factoring something in, by all means let me know.

I've watched 2 WOS games this year.  1st was against LCM, 2nd was against newton.  The LCM vs WOS score is misleading.  WOS did not play near their potential, very sloppy tackling and a ton of penalties.  The WOS looked more like more WOS against Newton.  Maybe WOS played down to their competition...IDK.  OR it could be that LCM is that much improved.

[Tiger33]

14 minutes ago, PirateNole984 said:

I've watched 2 WOS games this year.  1st was against LCM, 2nd was against newton.  The LCM vs WOS score is misleading.  WOS did not play near their potential, very sloppy tackling and a ton of penalties.  The WOS looked more like more WOS against Newton.  Maybe WOS played down to their competition...IDK.  OR it could be that LCM is that much improved.

WOS is not the same team they have been the past several years. I’m kinda disappointed on how they are playing. LCM is improved. I just think they are well coached now. Crouch was just there to earn a paycheck and ride it out because no one said anything. 

[Tiger33]

18 minutes ago, Hagar said:

Will be a good test for the Bears, and I certainly won’t be surprised if they win.  The new Coach appears to have turned things around.  If you’re at the game, hope you keep the updates coming.  It’s my main game to follow.

I’ll be at the game. I think the game could go either way. No one thought we could beat Houston Kinkaid that was ranked #2 in private school last week. I understand you have to prove yourself as a contender.  I think the teams that make the playoffs will be HH Vidor LCM and Livingston. 

[Bobcat.23]

On 9/28/2021 at 4:00 PM, Bobcats0809 said:

I’ve seen Lumberton, LCM, Livingston, & Vidor in person. Haven’t seen HH so I won’t comment on that, but LCM & Vidor will both beat Livingston, OF outplayed Livingston IMO despite the last second loss. LCM beat OF pretty soundly in their scrimmage & is much more physically impressive. Lumberton has no chance, way too slow & not nearly physical enough. Also watched Splendora play HF & wasn’t all that impressed. So I’m conceding that HH will be in the playoffs, but the next three teams in my opinion based off watching them in person is Vidor, LCM, Livingston, in that order.

LCM tied OF in a scrimmage and OF had 6 starters out with COVID.

[Tim Riggins]

55 minutes ago, LCMAlumtiger32 said:

I’ll be at the game. I think the game could go either way. No one thought we could beat Houston Kinkaid that was ranked #2 in private school last week. I understand you have to prove yourself as a contender.  I think the teams that make the playoffs will be HH Vidor LCM and Livingston. 

My picks as well,  LCM is much improved, teams better not sleep on them.

[Bobcat.23]

1 hour ago, PirateNole984 said:

I've watched 2 WOS games this year.  1st was against LCM, 2nd was against newton.  The LCM vs WOS score is misleading.  WOS did not play near their potential, very sloppy tackling and a ton of penalties.  The WOS looked more like more WOS against Newton.  Maybe WOS played down to their competition...IDK.  OR it could be that LCM is that much improved.

Though the coaches at LCM are very talented, I don't think they're turning things around in one year and beating Jasper, just my personal opinion though.

[Hagar]

Watched a couple of videos.  LCM very impressive.  QB can turn busted into big yards.

[Lions Pride 2021]

On 9/28/2021 at 2:47 PM, Stangfan#1 said:

You might want to rethink that cause LCM might have something to say about that they is killing folks

I'm still sticking to my guns to the bitter end. 

Jordan and Kincaid are games the Bears should have expected to win. I know, they haven't always won the games they should have won, but maybe this is a new era. Let's see how it goes against Jasper.

I always like to see LC-M do well. Maybe if they keep this up they can get win #3 against WO-S (1983 at Bear Stadium, 1994 @ Mustang Stadium, ????) (Statistically speaking, the odds of that nasty streak are 1 in 134,217,728. I think they didn't play a few times in between, but still, it's bad and unfathomable.)

Peevy's a heck of a coach. BISD is cheap and should have paid him what 6A coaches get paid. Their loss, LC-M's gain.

I am proud that the teams in this district seem improved from last year. Should be fun next week.

[Tiger33]

13 minutes ago, Lions Pride 2021 said:

I'm still sticking to my guns to the bitter end. 

Jordan and Kincaid are games the Bears should have expected to win. I know, they haven't always won the games they should have won, but maybe this is a new era. Let's see how it goes against Jasper.

I always like to see LC-M do well. Maybe if they keep this up they can get win #3 against WO-S (1983 at Bear Stadium, 1994 @ Mustang Stadium, ????) (Statistically speaking, the odds of that nasty streak are 1 in 134,217,728. I think they didn't play a few times in between, but still, it's bad and unfathomable.)

Peevy's a heck of a coach. BISD is cheap and should have paid him what 6A coaches get paid. Their loss, LC-M's gain.

I am proud that the teams in this district seem improved from last year. Should be fun next week.

I’m sorry to bust your bubble LCM is not scheduling WOS after this season 

[setxathlete14]

1 hour ago, Bobcat.23 said:

LCM tied OF in a scrimmage and OF had 6 starters out with COVID.

Orangefield is not nor ever has... give or take maybe a few years... been on same level as lcm and I thought the thread stated 10-4a-1?

[Hagar]

56 minutes ago, Lions Pride 2021 said:

I'm still sticking to my guns to the bitter end. 

Jordan and Kincaid are games the Bears should have expected to win. I know, they haven't always won the games they should have won, but maybe this is a new era. Let's see how it goes against Jasper.

I always like to see LC-M do well. Maybe if they keep this up they can get win #3 against WO-S (1983 at Bear Stadium, 1994 @ Mustang Stadium, ????) (Statistically speaking, the odds of that nasty streak are 1 in 134,217,728. I think they didn't play a few times in between, but still, it's bad and unfathomable.)

Peevy's a heck of a coach. BISD is cheap and should have paid him what 6A coaches get paid. Their loss, LC-M's gain.

I am proud that the teams in this district seem improved from last year. Should be fun next week.

Agree with the District improving.  Going to be interesting each week.

[Bobcat.23]

1 hour ago, setxathlete14 said:

Orangefield is not nor ever has... give or take maybe a few years... been on same level as lcm and I thought the thread stated 10-4a-1?

they were talking about OF and LCM, but how are they not on the same level as them this year?

[Lions Pride 2021]

1 hour ago, LCMAlumtiger32 said:

I’m sorry to bust your bubble LCM is not scheduling WOS after this season 

I always hated that the local papers lazily called it a rivalry game just because they are in neighboring zip codes.  i might have been guilty of that too when I was a sports reporter, but that was at least 18 losses ago.

They should just combine the two schools and be through with it.

[Bobcat.23]

1 hour ago, setxathlete14 said:

Orangefield is not nor ever has... give or take maybe a few years... been on same level as lcm and I thought the thread stated 10-4a-1?

not to mention after LCM did not have the best year last year that's a bold statement

[Tiger33]

8 minutes ago, Lions Pride 2021 said:

I always hated that the local papers lazily called it a rivalry game just because they are in neighboring zip codes.  i might have been guilty of that too when I was a sports reporter, but that was at least 18 losses ago.

They should just combine the two schools and be through with it.

I grew up knowing BC was our rivial. I agree the schools should have been combined along time ago 

[Hagar]

All we need is another big school.  To many of them now.  To many kids don’t get to participate.  Take Beaumont with WB & United.  Maybe 100 to 120 kids on varsity?  Two bands & cheerleading squads.  Back in 1960 you had Bmt High, S. Park, French, Hebert & CP.  Five varsity football teams.  Five bands & cheerleading squads.  Hundreds of more kids participating.  Let WOS & LCM alone.  Just my old, wore out, opinion.

[Tiger33]

54 minutes ago, Hagar said:

All we need is another big school.  To many of them now.  To many kids don’t get to participate.  Take Beaumont with WB & United.  Maybe 100 to 120 kids on varsity?  Two bands & cheerleading squads.  Back in 1960 you had Bmt High, S. Park, French, Hebert & CP.  Five varsity football teams.  Five bands & cheerleading squads.  Hundreds of more kids participating.  Let WOS & LCM alone.  Just my old, wore out, opinion.

Lcm and WOS would only be a 5a D2 school

[Hagar]

26 minutes ago, LCMAlumtiger32 said:

Lcm and WOS would only be a 5a D2 school

And initially have a fair turnout for football, but it would drop off to 60% of participants now.   And other activities would lose participants, but it’s what is happening now everywhere.  Cest la vie.

[AggiesAreWe]

1 hour ago, Hagar said:

All we need is another big school.  To many of them now.  To many kids don’t get to participate.  Take Beaumont with WB & United.  Maybe 100 to 120 kids on varsity?  Two bands & cheerleading squads.  Back in 1960 you had Bmt High, S. Park, French, Hebert & CP.  Five varsity football teams.  Five bands & cheerleading squads.  Hundreds of more kids participating.  Let WOS & LCM alone.  Just my old, wore out, opinion.

It's about the money. School districts consolidate because of the money. It's much more feasible to have 2-3 schools with the enrollments that Beaumont has than to have 5-6. 

When there is already a teacher shortage, why create more schools if not necessary?

[Tiger33]

LCM is struggling financially. They lose the paper mill and the carbon plant whey would be in trouble. They already receive funds from WOS