New Years Eve homicide victim was former Beaumont mayoral candidate Joshua Yates

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[thetragichippy]

Is it me or is there a ridiculous amount of murders happening in Beaumont last few months?

 

[tvc184]

45 minutes ago, thetragichippy said:

Is it me or is there a ridiculous amount of murders happening in Beaumont last few months?

 

Ridiculous.

Beaumont seems to have been more violent in the last few years. It seems like a rising crime trend. Sometimes it may appear that way because of what is actually put in the news as opposed to what really happens. Maybe it’s always been bad but lately more incidents make the headlines…..

These kinds of crimes run in strings however. It was maybe 10 to 12 years ago that Port Arthur had 5 homicides in January (I was the on scene supervisor on 4). To put that in perspective, in 2019 the FBI reports nationwide that we had five murders per 100,000 people. That means Port Arthur should get 5 to 6 per year on average by population. So that year Port Arthur made their predicted average in four weeks. If that continued the city would have been 1,200% above the national average. I think they ended up with 9 on the year. So they had 5 in one month and then 4 in 11 months. Serious crime is like that.

After writing that…. I just looked up the Beaumont FBI/UCR reported crime stats. They are complete through 2019. Homicides in 2019 were 16/100K or a little over 300% higher than the national average. Going back to 2013 it consistently  runs 250-300% higher than the national average.

Port Arthur has almost identical per 100K stats as Beaumont except in 2018 where they were 500% above the national average. To put that in perspective, everybody talks about the Chicago murder rate which is very high but in 2018 their homicide rate was 20% lower than Port Arthur.

As far as perception, I see a lot of comments on Facebook and other forums that say something like, crime is the same everywhere.  Since we were talking about homicide which is considered the worst crime, in a 14 year period ending in 2019:

Nederland/Port Neches/Groves (Mid-County) had a combined 14 homicides or 1 per year combined. 

Port Arthur had 96.

Mid-County has a combined population 20% lower than Port Arthur. So comparing by population Mid-County would have had 17 homicides. 96/17 (almost 700% higher) in cities that share common boundaries.

 Beaumont had 183 homicides in the same time frame. Again going by percentages in comparison of population, Mid-County would have 54 homicides so 183/54. So Beaumont only had a homicide rate 340% higher.

There seems to be an upward trend in Belmont however. In a five-year period starting in 2006 they averaged 9 homicides per year.  In the nine years after that they are averaging 15 per year. So there has been about a consistent 50% increase in homicides in Beaumont for the last decade. Robberies, assaults and sexual assaults have remained relatively static. While the homicide rate has spiked, other major violent crimes have not shown such an increase. 

Beaumont is consistently runs by 200% higher than the national average on major crime. Port Arthur runs about 150% higher. Mid-County combined runs about 10% lower.

[thetragichippy]

5 hours ago, tvc184 said:

Ridiculous.

Beaumont seems to have been more violent in the last few years. It seems like a rising crime trend. Sometimes it may appear that way because of what is actually put in the news as opposed to what really happens. Maybe it’s always been bad but lately more incidents make the headlines…..

These kinds of crimes run in strings however. It was maybe 10 to 12 years ago that Port Arthur had 5 homicides in January (I was the on scene supervisor on 4). To put that in perspective, in 2019 the FBI reports nationwide that we had five murders per 100,000 people. That means Port Arthur should get 5 to 6 per year on average by population. So that year Port Arthur made their predicted average in four weeks. If that continued the city would have been 1,200% above the national average. I think they ended up with 9 on the year. So they had 5 in one month and then 4 in 11 months. Serious crime is like that.

After writing that…. I just looked up the Beaumont FBI/UCR reported crime stats. They are complete through 2019. Homicides in 2019 were 16/100K or a little over 300% higher than the national average. Going back to 2013 it consistently  runs 250-300% higher than the national average.

Port Arthur has almost identical per 100K stats as Beaumont except in 2018 where they were 500% above the national average. To put that in perspective, everybody talks about the Chicago murder rate which is very high but in 2018 their homicide rate was 20% lower than Port Arthur.

As far as perception, I see a lot of comments on Facebook and other forums that say something like, crime is the same everywhere.  Since we were talking about homicide which is considered the worst crime, in a 14 year period ending in 2019:

Nederland/Port Neches/Groves (Mid-County) had a combined 14 homicides or 1 per year combined. 

Port Arthur had 96.

Mid-County has a combined population 20% lower than Port Arthur. So comparing by population Mid-County would have had 17 homicides. 96/17 (almost 700% higher) in cities that share common boundaries.

 Beaumont had 183 homicides in the same time frame. Again going by percentages in comparison of population, Mid-County would have 54 homicides so 183/54. So Beaumont only had a homicide rate 340% higher.

There seems to be an upward trend in Belmont however. In a five-year period starting in 2006 they averaged 9 homicides per year.  In the nine years after that they are averaging 15 per year. So there has been about a consistent 50% increase in homicides in Beaumont for the last decade. Robberies, assaults and sexual assaults have remained relatively static. While the homicide rate has spiked, other major violent crimes have not shown such an increase. 

Beaumont is consistently runs by 200% higher than the national average on major crime. Port Arthur runs about 150% higher. Mid-County combined runs about 10% lower.

I'm glad it's not just me. I've moved to my childhood house temporarily and I must say it is VERY different than Lumberton.  While a street over is Groves, I still hear sirens all through the night, but so far no issues.....but I make dang sure the door are locked and gun is handy.....which I didn't do too much in Lumberton. 

[CardinalBacker]

It's completely predictable.  

 

It's those racist white peoples' fault for leaving.

[PAMFAM10]

Ain’t that bad

[BMTSoulja1]

On 1/4/2022 at 11:10 AM, tvc184 said:

Ridiculous.

Beaumont seems to have been more violent in the last few years. It seems like a rising crime trend. Sometimes it may appear that way because of what is actually put in the news as opposed to what really happens. Maybe it’s always been bad but lately more incidents make the headlines…..

These kinds of crimes run in strings however. It was maybe 10 to 12 years ago that Port Arthur had 5 homicides in January (I was the on scene supervisor on 4). To put that in perspective, in 2019 the FBI reports nationwide that we had five murders per 100,000 people. That means Port Arthur should get 5 to 6 per year on average by population. So that year Port Arthur made their predicted average in four weeks. If that continued the city would have been 1,200% above the national average. I think they ended up with 9 on the year. So they had 5 in one month and then 4 in 11 months. Serious crime is like that.

After writing that…. I just looked up the Beaumont FBI/UCR reported crime stats. They are complete through 2019. Homicides in 2019 were 16/100K or a little over 300% higher than the national average. Going back to 2013 it consistently  runs 250-300% higher than the national average.

Port Arthur has almost identical per 100K stats as Beaumont except in 2018 where they were 500% above the national average. To put that in perspective, everybody talks about the Chicago murder rate which is very high but in 2018 their homicide rate was 20% lower than Port Arthur.

As far as perception, I see a lot of comments on Facebook and other forums that say something like, crime is the same everywhere.  Since we were talking about homicide which is considered the worst crime, in a 14 year period ending in 2019:

Nederland/Port Neches/Groves (Mid-County) had a combined 14 homicides or 1 per year combined. 

Port Arthur had 96.

Mid-County has a combined population 20% lower than Port Arthur. So comparing by population Mid-County would have had 17 homicides. 96/17 (almost 700% higher) in cities that share common boundaries.

 Beaumont had 183 homicides in the same time frame. Again going by percentages in comparison of population, Mid-County would have 54 homicides so 183/54. So Beaumont only had a homicide rate 340% higher.

There seems to be an upward trend in Belmont however. In a five-year period starting in 2006 they averaged 9 homicides per year.  In the nine years after that they are averaging 15 per year. So there has been about a consistent 50% increase in homicides in Beaumont for the last decade. Robberies, assaults and sexual assaults have remained relatively static. While the homicide rate has spiked, other major violent crimes have not shown such an increase. 

Beaumont is consistently runs by 200% higher than the national average on major crime. Port Arthur runs about 150% higher. Mid-County combined runs about 10% lower.

As far as the things you see on Facebook I’m reference to crime in Beaumont and Port Arthur as opposed to everywhere else, why are we just limiting it to Homicide?  Crime is crime.   All crime.  I think that’s what those comments on Facebook is about…

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

16 minutes ago, BMTSoulja1 said:

As far as the things you see on Facebook I’m reference to crime in Beaumont and Port Arthur as opposed to everywhere else, why are we just limiting it to Homicide?  Crime is crime.   All crime.  I think that’s what those comments on Facebook is about…

Why are.......... know what, nevermind. 

[BMTSoulja1]

27 minutes ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

Why are.......... know what, nevermind. 

Yea, I know what you mean.  It’s a strong possibility that I’m just wasting my breath…. 

[tvc184]

1 hour ago, BMTSoulja1 said:

As far as the things you see on Facebook I’m reference to crime in Beaumont and Port Arthur as opposed to everywhere else, why are we just limiting it to Homicide?  Crime is crime.   All crime.  I think that’s what those comments on Facebook is about…

Because homicide is the most violent it is what everybody thinks about when mentioning crime, not shoplifting at Walmart.

However…..

If you read my post I mentioned all major crime. Beaumont has a 200% higher than the national average and Port Arthur has a home 150% higher than the national average. That is not homicide but burglaries, sexual assaults, arson, etc.

[BS Wildcats]

On 1/4/2022 at 11:10 AM, tvc184 said:

Ridiculous.

Beaumont seems to have been more violent in the last few years. It seems like a rising crime trend. Sometimes it may appear that way because of what is actually put in the news as opposed to what really happens. Maybe it’s always been bad but lately more incidents make the headlines…..

These kinds of crimes run in strings however. It was maybe 10 to 12 years ago that Port Arthur had 5 homicides in January (I was the on scene supervisor on 4). To put that in perspective, in 2019 the FBI reports nationwide that we had five murders per 100,000 people. That means Port Arthur should get 5 to 6 per year on average by population. So that year Port Arthur made their predicted average in four weeks. If that continued the city would have been 1,200% above the national average. I think they ended up with 9 on the year. So they had 5 in one month and then 4 in 11 months. Serious crime is like that.

After writing that…. I just looked up the Beaumont FBI/UCR reported crime stats. They are complete through 2019. Homicides in 2019 were 16/100K or a little over 300% higher than the national average. Going back to 2013 it consistently  runs 250-300% higher than the national average.

Port Arthur has almost identical per 100K stats as Beaumont except in 2018 where they were 500% above the national average. To put that in perspective, everybody talks about the Chicago murder rate which is very high but in 2018 their homicide rate was 20% lower than Port Arthur.

As far as perception, I see a lot of comments on Facebook and other forums that say something like, crime is the same everywhere.  Since we were talking about homicide which is considered the worst crime, in a 14 year period ending in 2019:

Nederland/Port Neches/Groves (Mid-County) had a combined 14 homicides or 1 per year combined. 

Port Arthur had 96.

Mid-County has a combined population 20% lower than Port Arthur. So comparing by population Mid-County would have had 17 homicides. 96/17 (almost 700% higher) in cities that share common boundaries.

 Beaumont had 183 homicides in the same time frame. Again going by percentages in comparison of population, Mid-County would have 54 homicides so 183/54. So Beaumont only had a homicide rate 340% higher.

There seems to be an upward trend in Belmont however. In a five-year period starting in 2006 they averaged 9 homicides per year.  In the nine years after that they are averaging 15 per year. So there has been about a consistent 50% increase in homicides in Beaumont for the last decade. Robberies, assaults and sexual assaults have remained relatively static. While the homicide rate has spiked, other major violent crimes have not shown such an increase. 

Beaumont is consistently runs by 200% higher than the national average on major crime. Port Arthur runs about 150% higher. Mid-County combined runs about 10% lower.

Could this uptick be caused by hurricane evacuees from NOLA that never left?

[tvc184]

1 hour ago, BS Wildcats said:

Could this uptick be caused by hurricane evacuees from NOLA that never left?

It is highly unlikely. Percentage wise it was not that many people and generally speaking, the homicide rates dropped after Katrina and then Rita.

The other major crimes have remain virtually unchanged from 2006 to today. 

[thetragichippy]

On 1/8/2022 at 5:01 PM, BMTSoulja1 said:

Yea, I know what you mean.  It’s a strong possibility that I’m just wasting my breath…. 

Explain, I'm going to be in Port Arthur for 2 years......why should I not be concerned crime is higher there than other places I have lived? 

[CardinalBacker]

22 hours ago, tvc184 said:

It is highly unlikely. Percentage wise it was not that many people and generally speaking, the homicide rates dropped after Katrina and then Rita.

The other major crimes have remain virtually unchanged from 2006 to today. 

You can look forward to another violent crime wave around 2040.... when all of those kids being born to mothers who couldn't get an abortion due to Texas's new abortion restriction finally get felonious.  I called it first. 

[CardinalBacker]

4 hours ago, thetragichippy said:

Explain, I'm going to be in Port Arthur for 2 years......why should I not be concerned crime is higher there than other places I have lived? 

Well, first you have to accept that crime is not the fault of the criminal committing it... it's the fault of society.  It's poverty, a racist criminal justice system, systemic racism, oppression, the lingering affects of slavery, etc.... but it will never, ever, be the fault of the black kid shooting another black kid over a half ounce of weed or the color of his sneakers.  Ever. 

You shouldn't be concerned with crime... you should be concerned with the causes of that crime that I've listed above.  Any other concern is rooted in racism... such as your concern for your own well-being.

 

Honestly, I lived south of 73 off of Memorial in PAT while I was in college.  It's not as bad as it sounds.  Don't stop at redlights, and if you have to, stop far enough back to get out of line if you have to move.  Don't buy gas in Port Arthur.  Period.  It's too dangerous at the pumps. Don't look like a victim... look like the kind of guy that probably carries. For God's sake, don't buy your weed local.  Steer clear of young black dudes, 16-24-ish.  That's where your problems come in.  There's a "we're all in this together" mentality among the people that live there.  Be aware of your surrounding and you'll be fine.