5AD1 District 8 and Region 2 discussion.

[LoboFan07]

56 minutes ago, BHFan09 said:

Bh could also win out and make all of this incorrect. Lots of ball left to play. However BH played the vaunted number one Fort Bend Marshall last year  in the first round and ran them off the field. Not saying that would happen to Longview just reiterating the fact upsets happen. 

Definitely could. That’s why it was just a projection on my own opinion and thoughts as I view them.

But I will say, we are not Fort Bend Marshall. 

The best thing to ever happen to coach King, as bad as it sounds, was a nationally ranked and completely loaded Longview squad walking into Mesquite Memorial Stadium to take on a 6-4 South Garland squad. We lost 14-13 in King’s 2nd season. That loss still gets talked about to this day (17 years after the fact) in Longview. We’ve lost one bi-district game since then, and that was the trip to Beaumont we had to take back in 2016 despite tying for a district crown. Thankfully we made up for that loss to West Brook the following two years. 

Upsets do happen though, no doubt. 

Like you said, lots of football to be played.

[LoboFan07]

sorry for the double post

[Separation Scientist]

1 hour ago, AggiesAreWe said:

I am pretty certain that no 5th place team has ever won a high school football playoff game.

4th will always be better than 5th in a 4 team playoff system. Anyone suggesting they are the same is just not credible.

Obviously 5th place teams don't even participate. Why did you even say that? Oh thats right you just want to critique me every single chance you get. You and your fishing buddy 0.142. 

Now, IN MY OPINION its of little or no value for a team to stagger into the playoffs in 4th and get humilited by a ton of points against a Top 5 or even Top 1 team. What would you do Aggie? Wear your T-shirt and brag about your team if they endured a 60 point first round loss? Thats just NOT CREDIBLE to me but maybe thats the way soft sensitive PC type people of todays culture looks at things. The exception is if they can do what BH did last year, rise up and punch a Top ranked undefeated FBM in the mouth. Good luck whoever gets Longview, in Longview. 

     

 

[Separation Scientist]

1 hour ago, LoboFan07 said:

But I will say, we are not Fort Bend Marshall. 

No you are not, I understand it but the NON CREDIBLE posters here are not capable of understanding that.  

[AggiesAreWe]

8 hours ago, Separation Scientist said:

Obviously 5th place teams don't even participate. Why did you even say that? Oh thats right you just want to critique me every single chance you get. You and your fishing buddy 0.142. 

Now, IN MY OPINION its of little or no value for a team to stagger into the playoffs in 4th and get humilited by a ton of points against a Top 5 or even Top 1 team. What would you do Aggie? Wear your T-shirt and brag about your team if they endured a 60 point first round loss? Thats just NOT CREDIBLE to me but maybe thats the way soft sensitive PC type people of todays culture looks at things. The exception is if they can do what BH did last year, rise up and punch a Top ranked undefeated FBM in the mouth. Good luck whoever gets Longview, in Longview. 

     

 

I prefer a two team playoff system but I don't make the rules.

In a 4 team playoff system, 4th is much better than 5th.

Not all 4th place teams "stagger" into the playoffs. Some districts are far more stronger than others.

Not all district champions are top 5 teams and in some cases, nowhere near the top 10.

I am also speaking in general terms and not specific to a particular district.

[Cougtalk]

14 hours ago, LoboFan07 said:

It's more plausible than you think. 

BH sits at 4-1, still with Kingwood Park, PA Memorial & Porter to play. They lost to La Porte by 7, and beat Crosby by 1 (-6 between the 3).

LP sits at 3-2, still with Porter, Sterling and Crosby to play. They beat Barbers Hill by 7 (+7)

Crosby sits at 2-3, still with Sterling, La Porte and Goose Creek to play. They lost to BH by 1 (-1)

Crosby, by far, has the easiest schedule left.

Give Crosby the two wins they should have over Sterling/Goose Creek, that has them sitting at 4-3 not counting the LP game.
Give La Porte the two wins they should have, that has them sitting at 5-2 not counting the LP game.
Give Barbers Hill the toss losses they should have, that has them sitting at 4-3 not counting the LP game.

If La Porte beats Crosby, then obvious it's a mute point no matter what. Crosby would finish 4-4 and BH would come to Longview as the 4th place squad.

If Crosby beats La Porte, then you have LP finish at 5-3, Crosby finishing at 5-3. And BH having to beat Porter just to get to 5-3. But in that scenario it just matters how much Crosby beat La Porte by as right now we have a LP +7, Crosby -1 and BH -6 in the point differential between the three teams (as it would only matters on those 3 games played between the three, as far as the usual tiebreakers go).

Now again, this is assuming we know BH is not one of the top two teams, Crosby is at least better than the Baytown schools and Porter doesn't upset LP.

Heck, New Caney Porter isn't even out of this thing yet. Yes they're 1-3, but they play La Porte, Goose Creek, Lee and Barbers Hill still and could somehow finish 5-3 end up finishing 4th themselves just by beating LP/BH.

Regardless, Eagle fans need to be hoping they pull an upset over KP or PAM, or hope La Porte knocks off Crosby (or that Crosby beats LP by more than 14).

In the tie breaker scenario Crosby would only need to win by 8 to win the tiebreaker. Then it would default to head to head. 

But LP could lose by any number greater than 8 and still be the 4th seed because it defaults to HTH after the three way break. 

So isn't it largely either Crosby or BH is out? Other than losing a game beyond Crosby how does La Porte not make the playoffs? 

 

[LoboFan07]

31 minutes ago, Cougtalk said:

In the tie breaker scenario Crosby would only need to win by 8 to win the tiebreaker. Then it would default to head to head. 

But LP could lose by any number greater than 8 and still be the 4th seed because it defaults to HTH after the three way break. 

So isn't it largely either Crosby or BH is out? Other than losing a game beyond Crosby how does La Porte not make the playoffs?

Usually there's a point cap, we just don't know what it is. Some districts are 14, some are 18 some are 15 etc.

But yes as you said, if Crosby wins by 8, then Crosby would be 3rd and Lp would be 4th.

But if Crosby were to win by two touchdowns (so sitting at +13), BH would still finish at -6, while La Porte would finish at -7. So Crosby and Barbers Hill move on, then Crosby would finish 4th based on head to head.

[Cougtalk]

Just now, LoboFan07 said:

Usually there's a point cap, we just don't know what it is. Some districts are 14, some are 18 some are 15 etc.

But yes as you said, if Crosby wins by 8, then Crosby would be 3rd and Lp would be 4th.

But if Crosby were to win by two touchdowns (so sitting at +13), BH would still finish at -6, while La Porte would finish at -7. So Crosby and Barbers Hill move on, then Crosby would finish 4th based on head to head.

So previous districts we've been in only the 1st team from the three way tie is chosen by point differential. We really should figure out what the rules are in our district. 

In the previous district the tie breaker was used only to get 1 team out of the 3 way they would be the 3rd seed. Then head to head would be used for the 4th slot. If that's still the case then. Crosby winning by 8 or more would give them 3rd, and LP/BH would be head to head which means LP is 4th. 

[LoboFan07]

Just now, Cougtalk said:

We really should figure out what the rules are in our district.

Yep, that's the biggest thing since every district is different.

If y'all have any contacts with the coaching staffs, definitely reach out cause we're gonna need it.

[CCRed]

The playoff scenario is a good topic to talk about but….each team still has 3 games left, and anything can happen. I know in Crosby’s case, no game is a gimme with all the injuries they have had. 

[ThaGhost]

9 hours ago, CCRed said:

The playoff scenario is a good topic to talk about but….each team still has 3 games left, and anything can happen. I know in Crosby’s case, no game is a gimme with all the injuries they have had. 

You may or may not be talking about our district but, PAM has 4 games. 

[CCRed]

8 hours ago, ThaGhost said:

You may or may not be talking about our district but, PAM has 4 games. 

Correct, PAM has already had their bye week. I was referring to LP, Crosby, & BH.  

[Separation Scientist]

Yes its fun to look and think about all of this but lots more clarity will come very soon. Too much ambiguity at this point.  

[LoboFan07]

19 minutes ago, Separation Scientist said:

Yes its fun to look and think about all of this but lots more clarity will come very soon. Too much ambiguity at this point.  

It gets me through the week to be honest. Outside of Lancaster, we've not been challenged much at all and 3 of the next 4 games for us are against the bottom of our district so it's just a lot of fun for me to look at all the different scenarios.

Y'all's district is definitely a lot more interesting than ours. There's basically two games left in our district that will decide the seeding/top four.

[kingwolf1]

7 hours ago, Separation Scientist said:

Yes its fun to look and think about all of this but lots more clarity will come very soon. Too much ambiguity at this point.  

Definitely is fun to look at and think about.  I find myself looking at the potential matchups as we get later into the season.  His analysis makes that much easier.  The potential 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round matchups give me something to over analyze.  We have to take care of district first and then the 1st round but still fun to look into.

 

[Separation Scientist]

All good, I will zoom into the scenarios after this weekend. I get it that your district is pretty well definied and if the reverse was true I would be looking your way.  

[Cougtalk]

Pretty sure that our bidistrict will split unless something crazy happens like PAM just decides to not play. 

 

As for Crosby we just need to get as close to 100% healthy before the LP game and then play the best football of the season. The only world Crosby does anything this year is 3 seed and finds a way to beat an extremely tough Lancaster team to steal their seed. Unlikely but not that much more unlikely then our 2nd place run to a State Finals. 

[BHFAN]

3 hours ago, Cougtalk said:

Pretty sure that our bidistrict will split unless something crazy happens like PAM just decides to not play. 

 

As for Crosby we just need to get as close to 100% healthy before the LP game and then play the best football of the season. The only world Crosby does anything this year is 3 seed and finds a way to beat an extremely tough Lancaster team to steal their seed. Unlikely but not that much more unlikely then our 2nd place run to a State Finals. 

I think Crosby wins out. The LP game could have been interesting, but without their starting RB it’s not the same team. 
 

LP IMO will only beat Sterling and drop their game agains Crosby and Porter

BH next three games are so up in the air for me I would be surprised if the go 3-0 or 0-3 😩

KWP your think wins out 

PAM goes 2-2 or 3-1 as the play KWP away and BH at home (Which they don’t like playing at home 😂)

Porter goes 3-1 to finish

my prediction  is

1.) KWP 

2.) PAM 

3.) BH 

4.) Crosby

 

[LoboFan07]

4 hours ago, Cougtalk said:

The only world Crosby does anything this year is 3 seed and finds a way to beat an extremely tough Lancaster team to steal their seed. Unlikely but not that much more unlikely then our 2nd place run to a State Finals. 

That'd be a pretty remarkable run all things considered.

Round 1 - Lancaster
Round 2 - Frisco Reedy, likely district champs
Round 3 - #2 Mansfield Timberview
Round 4 - #1 Longview
Round 5 - Aledo/Denton Ryan/Burleson Centennial
Round 6 - College Station, A&M Consolidated, Richmond Foster, Someone else since that side is so wide open.

Good luck with that lol

[CCRed]

2 hours ago, LoboFan07 said:

That'd be a pretty remarkable run all things considered.

Round 1 - Lancaster
Round 2 - Frisco Reedy, likely district champs
Round 3 - #2 Mansfield Timberview
Round 4 - #1 Longview
Round 5 - Aledo/Denton Ryan/Burleson Centennial
Round 6 - College Station, A&M Consolidated, Richmond Foster, Someone else since that side is so wide open.

Good luck with that lol

I believe he may have been talking about Crosby’s previous run to the state finals and not any grand illusions for this year. At least I would hope so. 

[Austin1985]

3 hours ago, BHFAN said:

I think Crosby wins out. The LP game could have been interesting, but without their starting RB it’s not the same team. 
 

LP IMO will only beat Sterling and drop their game agains Crosby and Porter

BH next three games are so up in the air for me I would be surprised if the go 3-0 or 0-3 😩

KWP your think wins out 

PAM goes 2-2 or 3-1 as the play KWP away and BH at home (Which they don’t like playing at home 😂)

Porter goes 3-1 to finish

my prediction  is

1.) KWP 

2.) PAM 

3.) BH 

4.) Crosby

 

Funny but telling stat:  All of the contenders for DC plays'played KWP the week before they play/played PAM so based on that, I like PA's chances of winning district.  BH will either beat up or get beaten up by KWP win or lose

[BHFAN]

1 hour ago, Austin1985 said:

Funny but telling stat:  All of the contenders for DC plays'played KWP the week before they play/played PAM so based on that, I like PA's chances of winning district.  BH will either beat up or get beaten up by KWP win or lose

True KWP depleted Crosby and LP before getting to PAM. Hopefully BH can stay healthy for the match up with PAM. We will need everything we got to have a chance.

[Cougtalk]

19 hours ago, LoboFan07 said:

That'd be a pretty remarkable run all things considered.

Round 1 - Lancaster
Round 2 - Frisco Reedy, likely district champs
Round 3 - #2 Mansfield Timberview
Round 4 - #1 Longview
Round 5 - Aledo/Denton Ryan/Burleson Centennial
Round 6 - College Station, A&M Consolidated, Richmond Foster, Someone else since that side is so wide open.

Good luck with that lol

No I was talking about our previous run to state. 

Round 1- Willowridge 

Round 2- #4 Texas High

Round 3- #5 Huntsville 

Round 4 - #2 Fortbend Marshall 

Round 5 - #6 Liberty Hill

Finals - #1 Aledo. 

 

[BlackShirts5]

On 10/11/2022 at 8:28 AM, AggiesAreWe said:

I prefer a two team playoff system but I don't make the rules.

In a 4 team playoff system, 4th is much better than 5th.

Not all 4th place teams "stagger" into the playoffs. Some districts are far more stronger than others.

Not all district champions are top 5 teams and in some cases, nowhere near the top 10.

I am also speaking in general terms and not specific to a particular district.

Now that's some logic. Well said.

[TheDonk]

On 10/11/2022 at 8:28 AM, AggiesAreWe said:

I prefer a two team playoff system but I don't make the rules.

In a 4 team playoff system, 4th is much better than 5th.

Not all 4th place teams "stagger" into the playoffs. Some districts are far more stronger than others.

Not all district champions are top 5 teams and in some cases, nowhere near the top 10.

I am also speaking in general terms and not specific to a particular district.

Take District 9 5A D1 for example. Galveston Ball has outscored their district opponents 228-0. Galveston Ball WON realignment this past year hands down. I still dont know how Ball ended up with the HISD schools, but they are making the most of it. They did beat Texas City early in the year, but Vype has Ball ranked #7 in 5A, and KP, PAM, Crosby, BH, LP and Porter could all beat them IMO