Trump Running in 2024

[CardinalBacker]

Polls aren’t accurate… too many factors can sway the results in either direction. 
 

And they definitely don’t reflect which voters will actually turn out to vote. I think the polls in 16 represented peoples’ preferences, but Trump’s voters turned out when Hillary’s didn’t bother. 
 

I like that 538 compiles polls… if you have 49 polls showing candidate “a” winning and 2 showing candidate “b” winning, you can take something from the trend. 
 

Other people will ignore the 49 as flawed and champion the 2 others as “proof” that candidate “b” is going to win.  
 

Most are still within the margin of error. We’re just going to have to see what happens in November. My prediction? Kamala wins the popular vote by 10 million plus, wins the electoral college more convincingly than Biden did, and Trump cries that he was cheated.  
 

I think that the Ds take control of the House and remain in control of the Senate. The Rs didn’t do anything except fight with each other while controlling the House… they don’t deserve to lead in most peoples’ eyes.  Presidential election cycles bring out the voters that don’t spend their time talking about politics online, and those people don’t like the party of divisiveness/hate these days… they’ll vote “D,” I’m afraid. 

 

[Reagan]

1 hour ago, CardinalBacker said:

Polls aren’t accurate… too many factors can sway the results in either direction. 
 

And they definitely don’t reflect which voters will actually turn out to vote. I think the polls in 16 represented peoples’ preferences, but Trump’s voters turned out when Hillary’s didn’t bother. 
 

I like that 538 compiles polls… if you have 49 polls showing candidate “a” winning and 2 showing candidate “b” winning, you can take something from the trend. 
 

Other people will ignore the 49 as flawed and champion the 2 others as “proof” that candidate “b” is going to win.  
 

Most are still within the margin of error. We’re just going to have to see what happens in November. My prediction? Kamala wins the popular vote by 10 million plus, wins the electoral college more convincingly than Biden did, and Trump cries that he was cheated.  
 

I think that the Ds take control of the House and remain in control of the Senate. The Rs didn’t do anything except fight with each other while controlling the House… they don’t deserve to lead in most peoples’ eyes.  Presidential election cycles bring out the voters that don’t spend their time talking about politics online, and those people don’t like the party of divisiveness/hate these days… they’ll vote “D,” I’m afraid. 

 

Just heard that in Pennsylvania Kommiela has a 60% unfavorable rating.  And Trump is up by 8 points with Hispanic voters in Pennsylvania!  👍🏻

[thetragichippy]

1 hour ago, CardinalBacker said:

I like that 538 compiles polls… if you have 49 polls showing candidate “a” winning and 2 showing candidate “b” winning, you can take something from the trend. 

That is my go to page to see trends. The problem with Trump is in 2016 (big time) and in 2020 is he over performed versus he polls from 1-5 points. 

To say Hillary voters didn't show up in 2016 is factually wrong. In 2012, Obama received 66 million votes....in 2016 Hillary received 66 million votes.....

When you look at voting numbers it is hard to make sense of 2020.  There was a crazy surge on both sides. 

Year                   Republican Popular                Democratic Popular

2004                         62 m                                      59 m

2008                         60 m                                      69 m

2012                         61 m                                      66 m

2016                        63 m                                       66 m

2020                        74m                                        81 m

It would seem like a shoe in, based on trend that if you received 11 million more votes than your previous election you would win.  Remember all the Obama excitement.....he only got 10 million more votes.....then went down in 2012.

[CardinalBacker]

3 hours ago, thetragichippy said:

That is my go to page to see trends. The problem with Trump is in 2016 (big time) and in 2020 is he over performed versus he polls from 1-5 points. 

To say Hillary voters didn't show up in 2016 is factually wrong. In 2012, Obama received 66 million votes....in 2016 Hillary received 66 million votes.....

When you look at voting numbers it is hard to make sense of 2020.  There was a crazy surge on both sides. 

Year                   Republican Popular                Democratic Popular

2004                         62 m                                      59 m

2008                         60 m                                      69 m

2012                         61 m                                      66 m

2016                        63 m                                       66 m

2020                        74m                                        81 m

It would seem like a shoe in, based on trend that if you received 11 million more votes than your previous election you would win.  Remember all the Obama excitement.....he only got 10 million more votes.....then went down in 2012.

Good analysis... but I think you might be overlooking population growth as it relates to voter turnout, in most years.  

2020 was an an outlier for a couple of reasons.... we've never sent mass ballots out to registered voters, unrequested.  I strongly suspect this "allowed" a lot of people to vote who normally wouldn't be bothered to make their way to the polls, and also would have opened up the POSSIBILITY of voter fraud (but no evidence of such was ever found).  The question is whether or not it makes good sense to "push" people to vote when they'd normally not be willing to go to any effort to get to the polls... I guess that depends on whether or not your party won or lost. I think it was a terrible idea.  

The main thing that I saw was that Trump does an excellent job of getting people to vote... not just for him, but against him as well.  And he's better at getting the "Not Trump" votes out than he is at getting the actual "Trump" votes to the polls.   That's the real Trump Effect, in my mind. 

 

But I think a combination of those two factors led to the high turnouts... combined with the ongoing pandemic/lockdowns, as well as the racial unrest that was going on in 2020.  

It's kinda strange that people see "fraud" in the jump in Dem votes from 2016 to 2020, but nothing wrong with an abnormal increase in Repub votes for the same time period.

[UT alum]

On 9/18/2024 at 1:34 AM, Reagan said:

 

 

@CardinalBacker  @UT alum

So, what does this mean? Nate Silver is 538.

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[Reagan]

Just now, UT alum said:

So, what does this mean? Nate Silver is 538.

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Nate Silver was 538.  ABC owns 538 and downsized and layed off Nate Silver!

[Reagan]

 

The pure simplicity of this ad by Trump is so brilliant. It can’t be topped!