New Caney west fork will be 4a next realignment!

[lcm93]

The question is 4ad1 ? 4ad2?

[89Falcon]

What about New Caney? Heard they will likely drop. 

[lcm93]

3 minutes ago, 89Falcon said:

What about New Caney? Heard they will likely drop. 

I have no idea!!

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

42 minutes ago, 89Falcon said:

What about New Caney? Heard they will likely drop. 

@Lightning/Eagle would know. 

[Dirty_but_Dazzling]

3 hours ago, lcm93 said:

The question is 4ad1 ? 4ad2?

who asked? curious..

[Separation Scientist]

10 hours ago, 89Falcon said:

What about New Caney? Heard they will likely drop. 

That's what I was alluding to earlier in the coaches thread. WF will take some of their students. I say its very likely NC drops. I don't know if it impacts Porter or not. I think they all end up 5A's soon, kind of like the Baytown schools. 

[lcm93]

1 hour ago, Separation Scientist said:

That's what I was alluding to earlier in the coaches thread. WF will take some of their students. I say its very likely NC drops. I don't know if it impacts Porter or not. I think they all end up 5A's soon, kind of like the Baytown schools. 

They probably end up in vidor lcm lumberton livingston huffman hargrave and splendora district in the next realignment!!

[setxathlete14]

46 minutes ago, lcm93 said:

They probably end up in vidor lcm lumberton livingston huffman hargrave and splendora district in the next realignment!!

Some calling me crazy. 

[WOSdrummer99]

10 hours ago, Dirty_but_Dazzling said:

who asked? curious..

The voices!!

[texaslonghorn14]

4 hours ago, Separation Scientist said:

That's what I was alluding to earlier in the coaches thread. WF will take some of their students. I say its very likely NC drops. I don't know if it impacts Porter or not. I think they all end up 5A's soon, kind of like the Baytown schools. 

You are correct West Fork will pull students from both New Caney and Porter.  As for next alignment- New Caney will probably be 6A and Porter will be 5A.  New Caney has an extremely large Freshmen class (over 700) and Sophomore class (over 600).  With rezoning- they will definitely drop in the 24-26 realignment. 

[navydawg31]

8 hours ago, lcm93 said:

They probably end up in vidor lcm lumberton livingston huffman hargrave and splendora district in the next realignment!!

I wouldn’t be shocked if Lumberton ends back up in 5A… 

[setxathlete14]

13 hours ago, navydawg31 said:

I wouldn’t be shocked if Lumberton ends back up in 5A… 

Last numbers vidor was actually bigger than lumberton if I recall correctly lumbertons growth is way higher but vidor was just as close as lumberton to being 5a.

[navydawg31]

8 hours ago, setxathlete14 said:

Last numbers vidor was actually bigger than lumberton if I recall correctly lumbertons growth is way higher but vidor was just as close as lumberton to being 5a.

You are correct about Vidor having bigger number but that Lumberton Growth… from what I heard from a Lumberton MS football coach these are record number size for the current 6th-8th grade. They are saying it’s huge and every week more kids are moving in… Another one to watch for is Splendora, all that growth in that area Splendora will be 5A very soon… we had a regular Splendora poster that said in the next realignment or 2 they will be 5A a few years back… I drove through that area not along ago and was hard to recognize so much new growth and neighborhoods as well. 

2022-2024 UIL numbers for good measure. 

Lumberton 1215

Vidor 1229

LCM 1024

Livingston 1152

Huffman 1099

Splendora  1234 

[Separation Scientist]

The current 4A-5A cutoff is 1300. Its likely to rise some like it does most every time around. I think Lumberton and Vidor both stays 4A for at least another cycle. Splendora is the likely first one to make the 5A jump. 

[setxathlete14]

4 hours ago, Separation Scientist said:

The current 4A-5A cutoff is 1300. Its likely to rise some like it does most every time around. I think Lumberton and Vidor both stays 4A for at least another cycle. Splendora is the likely first one to make the 5A jump. 

Usually iirc. 1.4% ish usual rise

[Separation Scientist]

That would put the cutoff at 1318, making Lumberton 103 away, Vidor 89 away, and Splendora 84 away. I think none of them jump this cycle, Splendora jumps the next cycle, Lumberton the one after that, then Vidor after that. Just a guess.     

[navydawg31]

2 hours ago, Separation Scientist said:

That would put the cutoff at 1318, making Lumberton 103 away, Vidor 89 away, and Splendora 84 away. I think none of them jump this cycle, Splendora jumps the next cycle, Lumberton the one after that, then Vidor after that. Just a guess.     

Once UIL creates that 7A it’s going to be very interesting to see the numbers…

[Separation Scientist]

I agree. It will reverberate down through all the classifications, with the largest ones feeling the most affect.  

[navydawg31]

4 hours ago, Separation Scientist said:

I agree. It will reverberate down through all the classifications, with the largest ones feeling the most affect.  

With the talks and flirts of it I wish they would go ahead and do it. I’m just not sure how far away we are from seeing it… @Matthew328 might be able to shed some light on how far we are away from possibly seeing 7A coming to play.