Week 4

[PhatMack19]

Some big games this week

 

#3 Texas(-15.5) at Baylor

Auburn at Texas A&M(-7.5)

#6 Ohio St(-3.5) at #9 Notre Dame

#4 Florida St(-2.5) at Clemson

#19 Colorado at #10 Oregon(-21)

#15 Ole Miss at #13 Alabama(-7)

#22 UCLA at #11 Utah(-4.5)

#14 Oregon St(-3) at #21 Washington St

Arkansas at #12 LSU(-17.5)

#24 Iowa at #7 Penn St(-14.5)

[AggiesAreWe]

13 minutes ago, PhatMack19 said:

Some big games this week

 

#3 Texas(-15.5) at Baylor

Auburn at Texas A&M(-7.5)

#6 Ohio St(-3.5) at #9 Notre Dame

#4 Florida St(-2.5) at Clemson

#19 Colorado at #10 Oregon(-21)

#15 Ole Miss at #13 Alabama(-7)

#22 UCLA at #11 Utah(-4.5)

#14 Oregon St(-3) at #21 Washington St

Arkansas at #12 LSU(-17.5)

#24 Iowa at #7 Penn St(-14.5)

Great day of college football next Saturday.

Need to study these a little more. Some tough ones to pick.

[BEARCPA]

12 hours ago, AggiesAreWe said:

Great day of college football next Saturday.

Need to study these a little more. Some tough ones to pick.

Yeah lots of sharp lines this week. The only one that really looks weird to me is Florida State -2.5. Seems like that should be bigger, and the public is betting it that way on Draftkings with 88% of the bets on Florida State. Seems fishy.

I also kinda think A&M should be favored by more than 7.5 at home.

[AggiesAreWe]

57 minutes ago, BEARCPA said:

Yeah lots of sharp lines this week. The only one that really looks weird to me is Florida State -2.5. Seems like that should be bigger, and the public is betting it that way on Draftkings with 88% of the bets on Florida State. Seems fishy.

I also kinda think A&M should be favored by more than 7.5 at home.

The 2.5 for FSU is a bit odd.

I think the 7.5 is a good number for A&M.

Oregon being 21 point favorites is a little surprising. Would have put it at 17.5

[Right99JOH]

1 hour ago, AggiesAreWe said:

The 2.5 for FSU is a bit odd.

I think the 7.5 is a good number for A&M.

Oregon being 21 point favorites is a little surprising. Would have put it at 17.5

Poor performance by FSU last week, but they should be getting 3 starters back this week (2 on offense, 1 on defense).

21 by Oregon is kind of crazy.  I'd take the over in that game.

[PhatMack19]

Travis Hunter is out 3 weeks, so that may hurt the line some.  I don’t think Oregon is that good though.  21 is too high. 

[PhatMack19]

Kansas is favored by 9.5 over BYU in football?  Did I miss something?

[AggiesAreWe]

20 minutes ago, PhatMack19 said:

Kansas is favored by 9.5 over BYU in football?  Did I miss something?

BYU is not good but I would have that line at 7.

[BEARCPA]

6 hours ago, PhatMack19 said:

Kansas is favored by 9.5 over BYU in football?  Did I miss something?

Pretty weird line considering BYU just beat Arkansas on the road and Kansas struggled with Nevada

[BEARCPA]

My plays for the week:

Purdue +5.5 vs Wisconsin

Clemson +2 vs Florida State

SMU +6.5 vs TCU

Oregon -21 vs Colorado 

Ole Miss/Alabama Over 55.5

Utah -6 vs UCLA

BYU/Kansas Over 54.5

Arkansas/LSU Over 55

Washington State +3 vs Oregon State

Ohio State/Notre Dame Over 55.5

Texas/Baylor Over 49.5

Minnesota -11.5 vs Northwestern

 

 

[AggiesAreWe]

22 minutes ago, BEARCPA said:

My plays for the week:

Purdue +5.5 vs Wisconsin

Clemson +2 vs Florida State

SMU +6.5 vs TCU

Oregon -21 vs Colorado 

Ole Miss/Alabama Over 55.5

Utah -6 vs UCLA

BYU/Kansas Over 54.5

Arkansas/LSU Over 55

Washington State +3 vs Oregon State

Ohio State/Notre Dame Over 55.5

Texas/Baylor Over 49.5

Minnesota -11.5 vs Northwestern

 

 

In bold a few from this list I went with this week.

I also went with these:

A&M -8

Texas St. -17

Houston -12

Memphis/Mizzou over 51.5

Miss St./SC over 47

North Carolina -7.5

 

[BEARCPA]

6 hours ago, AggiesAreWe said:

In bold a few from this list I went with this week.

I also went with these:

A&M -8

Texas St. -17

Houston -12

Memphis/Mizzou over 51.5

Miss St./SC over 47

North Carolina -7.5

 

Good call with UCLA, that spread has moved down to 3.5 since this morning. Looks like Rising will be out again. Darn

[TxHoops]

On 9/19/2023 at 10:47 AM, AggiesAreWe said:

The 2.5 for FSU is a bit odd.

I think the 7.5 is a good number for A&M.

Oregon being 21 point favorites is a little surprising. Would have put it at 17.5

The fishy line theory hasn’t worked too well the first couple of weeks but it’s about the best indicator you can find in sports betting. There were three games last weekend and they went either 0-2-1 or 1-2 with John Q Public getting the best of it.  But when you have a line like this one and all the fish are on FSU and it ain’t moving, as you know, that means the sharps are on Clemson.  I rarely wager anymore unless I’m at a casino but I wouldn’t touch FSU with a 10 foot pole. 

[TxHoops]

Very, very few guys can get rich sports betting.  You will never know for certain who the Billy Walters and Bob Voulgaris’ of the world are betting because they won’t tell you and can’t (or don’t) place their own wagers (they pay runners to do so). The best you can do is try to connect the dots by finding games where the public is heavy on one side yet the line either doesn’t move or even moves the other way.  Just a 2 cent opinion by someone who was never worth a darn picking games himself 😂

[Hook'em]

Betting OU -14 which makes me sick to do but think they’ll roll

also Oregon St -2.5, UNC -6.5, and got in on Texas at -13.5 early in the week before the line got to -17

[PhatMack19]

A&M Qb is out.  Not much happening on offense for either team in the 1st half. 

[PhatMack19]

TD pass to his brother.  Pretty awesome

13-3 Ags 

[PhatMack19]

Max on fire 

20-3 Ags 

[baddog]

That has to be the best pass TD I’ve seen in a long time. Laid it right in there between two defenders. 

[AggiesAreWe]

5 hours ago, TxHoops said:

Very, very few guys can get rich sports betting.  You will never know for certain who the Billy Walters and Bob Voulgaris’ of the world are betting because they won’t tell you and can’t (or don’t) place their own wagers (they pay runners to do so). The best you can do is try to connect the dots by finding games where the public is heavy on one side yet the line either doesn’t move or even moves the other way.  Just a 2 cent opinion by someone who was never worth a darn picking games himself 😂

I am certainly nowhere near those guys level, but I did finish last football season a +2950.

Basketball was only a +345. I don't bet baseball.

[AggiesAreWe]

1 minute ago, baddog said:

That has to be the best pass TD I’ve seen in a long time. Laid it right in there between two defenders. 

Heck of a catch too.

[BEARCPA]

5 hours ago, TxHoops said:

The fishy line theory hasn’t worked too well the first couple of weeks but it’s about the best indicator you can find in sports betting. There were three games last weekend and they went either 0-2-1 or 1-2 with John Q Public getting the best of it.  But when you have a line like this one and all the fish are on FSU and it ain’t moving, as you know, that means the sharps are on Clemson.  I rarely wager anymore unless I’m at a casino but I wouldn’t touch FSU with a 10 foot pole. 

Yeah the square bets have been surprisingly successful in college football so far this year

[baddog]

Florida St. tied with Clemson @ 24 with 11:00 left. 

[BEARCPA]

Of course Dabo trots out a walk on kicker that misses a gimmie

[baddog]

Just think if he hadn’t stumbled.