5 Battle Ground States

[thetragichippy]

I added a couple States,  looking at the trend the Harris campaign should be concerned. Trump is surging forward (at the right time I might add) while Harris has lost ground on EVERY state listed.

It does not seem the sit downs with Oprah, Stern, Baier or the couple podcast seem to move the needle for her. My guess is she does not do the Joe Rogan podcast. If she thought Baier was tough on her non-answers, Rogan will be much worse. 

 

                                                             8/27/24                                      TODAY

Arizona                                                H   1                                          T      2

Georgia                                               T   .6                                          T      2

Michigan                                             ?                                                H     .5

Nevada                                               H  .6                                          H    .5

N. Carolina                                           ?                                              T  .9

Pennsylvania                                     H 1.6                                         H  .1                             

Wisconsin                                         H 3.8                                          EVEN

[thetragichippy]

On 10/19/2024 at 9:44 AM, thetragichippy said:

I added a couple States,  looking at the trend the Harris campaign should be concerned. Trump is surging forward (at the right time I might add) while Harris has lost ground on EVERY state listed.

It does not seem the sit downs with Oprah, Stern, Baier or the couple podcast seem to move the needle for her. My guess is she does not do the Joe Rogan podcast. If she thought Baier was tough on her non-answers, Rogan will be much worse. 

 

                                                             8/27/24                                      TODAY

Arizona                                                H   1                                          T      2

Georgia                                               T   .6                                          T      2

Michigan                                             ?                                                H     .5

Nevada                                               H  .6                                          H    .5

N. Carolina                                           ?                                              T  .9

Pennsylvania                                     H 1.6                                         H  .1                             

Wisconsin                                         H 3.8                                          EVEN

Trump just took Penn for the first time, no by .1 - Trends!!

[LumRaiderFan]

2 hours ago, thetragichippy said:

Trump just took Penn for the first time, no by .1 - Trends!!

Apparently the Arnold Palmer comment didn't hurt him like some have claimed.

[thetragichippy]

6 minutes ago, LumRaiderFan said:

Apparently the Arnold Palmer comment didn't hurt him like some have claimed.

In 2016 he picked a fight with the Pope and didn't lose the Catholic vote....lol

The media picking on basically everything he says, trying to use it against him has actually helped him.  There is so much of an effort to make him look bad, that no one takes it seriously anymore......except the Trump haters....he could cure cancer and end every war, and they would find something to gripe about.

 

[UT alum]

2 hours ago, LumRaiderFan said:

Apparently the Arnold Palmer comment didn't hurt him like some have claimed.

There’s a lag both ways.

[LumRaiderFan]

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From the article:

Former President Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, has opened up a sizable advantage in the election betting odds in recent weeks, giving Americans a new way of trying to piece together what might happen come Election Day.

"More than two billion dollars have been bet on the election already," Maxim Lott, who runs ElectionBettingOdds.com, told Fox News Digital.

The comments come as Lott’s website, which uses data from five different betting sites to display a betting average, shows Trump has a 58.5% chance of winning the presidential election as of Monday.

[LumRaiderFan]

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[5GallonBucket]

I see Harris winning NV and Michigan 

I see Trump winning Wisconsin, Az, Ga

considering the above

247 for Harris

256 for Trump

Harris needs both. Trump needs one.

Pennsylvania 🤷‍♂️

NC could go to Harris givin if the rural pop ,which tends to vote on Election Day, doesn’t or can’t get out to vote due to the destruction from storm.

But then again I could be way off either way can’t trust much of anything now days.

[SmashMouth]

Guessing at these battleground state numbers is fun, but it's like trying to figure what I'm having for supper tonight:

1. Is my wife cooking tonight? (your guess is good as mine)

2. Does she expect me to cook tonight? (a better probability than no. 1)

3. Will we just order take out? (Trends are leaning that way, but now we have to decide on where - that requires a whole 'nother flowchart)

4. How about going out and sit down to eat at a restaurant? (Not the usual, but probably one chance in 7)

5. What about just having leftovers? (the missus doesn't do leftovers, so usually not, unless it's my world-famous gumbo)

6. Should we just do "everybody for themselves"? (my 21 year old son hates this option, because he's not cooking or eating leftovers, and now he has to spend his own money at Cane's)

The only constant and for sure thing is that I'm not going hungry (this would make sense if you've ever seen me). Anything else is up for grabs, and won't be for sure until the meal is sitting in front of me. Kinda like when we decide on Napoli's pizza, I take everyone's wish list and call in the order only to realize they're closed on Mondays, and we have to start all over...

 

[LumRaiderFan]

18 minutes ago, 5GallonBucket said:

I see Harris winning NV and Michigan 

I see Trump winning Wisconsin, Az, Ga

considering the above

247 for Harris

256 for Trump

Harris needs both. Trump needs one.

Pennsylvania 🤷‍♂️

NC could go to Harris givin if the rural pop ,which tends to vote on Election Day, doesn’t or can’t get out to vote due to the destruction from storm.

But then again I could be way off either way can’t trust much of anything now days.

Agree, I wouldn't bet the farm either way.

[LumRaiderFan]

Keep Harris and Walz on the campaign trail, right now they are tremendous for the Trump campaign.

[5GallonBucket]

@thetragichippy

At the 10 min mark I found very interesting 

democratic pollster s thoughts as well 

[thetragichippy]

Time For an Update

@CardinalBacker - If you want Harris to win, I'd be pretty concerned based on the trends

Harris in every swing state has went down.......I believe it started when she tried to speak......

                                             8/27/2024                      TODAY

Arizona                                     H +1                           T +1.8

Georgia                                     H +.6                          T +1.5

Michigan                                    ?                                H +.2

Nevada                                      H +.6                         H  +.3

N Carolina                                  ?                               T +.8

Pennsylvania                             H +1.6                       T +.3

Wisconsin                                 H +3.8                        H +.5

                      

 

[thetragichippy]

Update for today

                                             8/27/2024                  10/23/2024                   11/2/2024

Arizona                                     H +1                           T +1.8                         T +2.1

Georgia                                     H +.6                          T +1.5                        T  +1.5

Michigan                                    ?                                H +.2                         H  +1.1

Nevada                                      H +.6                         H  +.3                         T  + 0.4

N Carolina                                  ?                               T +.8                            T   +1.4

Pennsylvania                             H +1.6                       T +.3                           T  +  0.1

Wisconsin                                 H +3.8                        H +.5                          H  +0.8

 

To say it is tight is an understatement......

There is no denying Trump has the momentum.