Montgomery Lake Creek at PNG

[lcm93]

Tt

[AggiesAreWe]

Why so soon with the thread? The game is still 10 days away.

[png9mon]

15 hours ago, AggiesAreWe said:

Why so soon with the thread? The game is still 10 days away.

The worst part of any High School Football season, for the fans, is the off week!😔

[DukeS]

This may not but worth much but here’s some related scores from this season:

8/30 Magnolia 59 - LC 33

8/30 PNG 39 - Klein Oak 17

9/13 Magnolia 60 - Klein Oak 21

[Eazy]

So, Mag beat LC by 26, but they beat KO by 39.  So then that means that LC would beat KO by 13. But, since PNG already beat KO by 22, then PNG will therefore beat LC by 9?  Is the math right?  I got PNG by 9 then. 

 

[Rez]

39 minutes ago, Eazy said:

So, Mag beat LC by 26, but they beat KO by 39.  So then that means that LC would beat KO by 13. But, since PNG already beat KO by 22, then PNG will therefore beat LC by 9?  Is the math right?  I got PNG by 9 then. 

 

There’s no transitive property in football. We can’t predict scores based on comparing who scored what against who. Matchups are what matters. There were a couple years (2014, 2015) where PNG beat a bad Goose Creek Memorial team 47-20 and 42-14. Nederland lost to GCM those years 56-55 and 18-14 (their only district loss in both years). Nederland beat PNG both years, despite PNG beating GCM by 17 and 28 points in those years. The point is, I don’t think we learn much, if anything, by LC losing to Magnolia and then Magnolia beating a team PNG beat. The only thing that matters is what can LC do on defense against PNG that specifically counters what PNG does, what can LC do on offense that PNG will struggle to counter, and how do both teams manage the game (play calling, clock management, etc). 

[Separation Scientist]

4 minutes ago, Rez said:

There’s no transitive property in football. 

I think there is "some". Not a lot, but some.  

[1970]

1 hour ago, Separation Scientist said:

I think there is "some". Not a lot, but some.  

Sure there is, just by simple default.  But the remainder of Rez' paragraph is correct.  

If A > B and B > C, then A > C, except on any given night in high school football.  

[Rez]

1 hour ago, Separation Scientist said:

I think there is "some". Not a lot, but some.  

It’s a matter of degree. If Team A beats Team C by 60, and Team B beats Team C by 14, we’ve learned that both Team A and Team B are better than Team C. But I don’t think it tells us much about how Team A will do against Team B. Last year is a good example - PNG beat Nederland by 28. Lake Creek beat Nederland by about 50. If we went only by the scores we’d be tempted to say LC had a better offense and defense than PNG. PNG beat LC by 3. If you won by at least more than two scores, I don’t care about how much more you scored after.

A stat I think IS transferable to the next game is something like 3rd and 4th down conversions, 3rd and 4th down stops, time of possession, and number of possessions. But I would want those to be counted over the whole season, not just against a common opponent. The things that lead to touchdowns or prevent opposing touchdowns that you can do consistently against a bunch of opponents get closer to telling us something about what you’ll do with the next opponent. In other words, I think the ability to get three yards when you absolutely need to against everyone you’ve played tells us more about your team than previous point spread. 

[Eazy]

I thought it was A2 * B2 = C2. 

[lcm93]

I wonder how many lion fans are coming to this game?

[navydawg31]

22 hours ago, png9mon said:

The worst part of any High School Football season, for the fans, is the off week!😔

Well you can go see another team this week, plenty of great games out there!