Montgomery Lake Creek at PNG

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

Just now, AggiesAreWe said:

I predict after this thread gets buried to the 2nd page because of all the game threads that will get posted tomorrow night, someone will post a new prediction thread for this game not realizing this one exists. Has happened many times. smh

IMO, when it comes to particular matchups, hold that thought till the week of the game or at least Saturday evening prior to that particular game so that it doesn't get buried.

I know. I used to do it with MCM younger days, I learned 😁

[NDNation]

20 hours ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

Atmosphere @BMTSoulja1 @NDNation

That's why visiting teams practice with Cherokee blaring. 

 

A    T   M   O  S   P   H   E   R   E

 

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

1 minute ago, NDNation said:

That's why visiting teams practice with Cherokee blaring. 

 

A    T   M   O  S   P   H   E   R   E

 

Smh your HS horrible that's why you hit the transfer portal to PNG from Denham Springs 🤣

[Rez]

Tt

[1970]

Last season these two teams met in the playoffs with LC ranked 2nd in 5a-2, and I think PNG was ranked 8th or thereabouts.  PNG built a lead and then hung on, intercepting a pass at the end for the win. 

At a glance so far, both teams this season seem to have found their game on offense, but still working to get the defense hitting on all cylinders.  The PNG defense so far hasn't shown last seasons speed.  This game could be another one like the LaPort - PNG game week before last. I'm going with PNG and home field advantage, and perhaps a little improved defense since Laporte. 

[Rez]

I can’t find any full-game film on Lake Creek from this season. They return a lot of big names from last year, as does PNG. Like last year, it’s going to be two well-coached evenly matched teams. 

Three things I think we’ll need to win:

(1) Defensive improvements. The defense has been good, and our performance against La Porte had a lot of bright spots. LP showed our weaknesses, and we got good reps against a violent, tough offensive line blocking for fast RBs who don’t go down without sure tackling. LC will be a more balanced offense, and I’d argue more talented than La Porte. We need to get better at outside containment and bringing the runner down at first contact. A single missed tackle is a touchdown for LC. 

(2) Avoid turnovers. That’s important for any game, but last year, two of Lake Creek’s four touchdowns came off PNG fumbles.

(3) PNG must dominate time of possession. This was the most important part of us beating them last year. I went back through every play of last year’s game. Here’s some rough numbers: 
PNG held the ball 10-ish minutes longer than LC. (28 min vs 18 min). That’s nearly a full quarter more than LC. It gets more interesting: For every 2.5 minutes LC held the ball in a normal “true” drive, they scored one touchdown. [I didn’t count their scoop and score on a PNG fumble because it doesn’t tell us anything about how their offense moved the ball against our defense.]

So, that ten minutes extra we held the ball was HUGE for PNG’s win. It might have been the main reason we won.

In fact, our good defense actually didn’t stop them enough to slow their usual scoring rate much. They averaged around 56 points a game before they played us. If those ten extra minutes we held the ball had gone to LC, their offense was on a pace to score between three and four more TDs - or, between 48 and 55 points total.

Obviously, this is based only on one game, but neither team has changed much since then. 

What does this tell us? With equal T.O.P., PNG likely loses. Our best defense is LC not touching the ball. They have the advantage in a shootout - frankly, their receivers are faster than ours, their RB is better than ours, and their QB is more than good enough. If we have to win by matching them score for score, we lose control. Our defense is good, but not good enough for our offense to gift LC extra possessions.