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It’s Breaking In Harris/Walz Direction

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UT alum

UT alum

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I’ve been paying attention to presidential elections since 1968 and I’ve followed and voted in every one since 1972. There have been 3 breaks I can think of and I watched them happen and could almost feel them happening. The first one was Jimmy Carter in 1979.  About ten days out he was ahead, but I could tell from the reporting and just people around here I talked to it always breaking fast towards Reagan. The second time was 1987.  Micheal Dukakis folded like a cheap suit. It was like watching a slow motion train wreck. The third one was in 2011.  Comey announced a reopening of Hillary’s laptop, which was the final straw, but I could tell a little before then that it was breaking fast towards Trump. Her campaign was poorly run.I think the 4th one is happening. Polls, campaigns, overall uptick  in enthusiasm for Harris and Democratic voters while Trump keeps up with bizarre speeches and low energy rallies. I been saying over and over a national campaign cannot outsourced. That’s the main responsibility of the national party for its nominees. It was a big mistake to put Musk in charge in Pennsylvania. An effective ground game cannot be bought. It has to be built. Trump’s 12 years of chaos within the party has allowed  the Republicans ground game to atrophy. I can feel the shift just like I felt the other three. I’m predicting an upset in Florida, Iowa, or Ohio. The house will probably wind up with a 25 seat Democratic majority, and I think the Democrats will also pick up a couple iof seats in the Senate.Donald Trump is going to lose bigly. If I’m wrong, I won’t hide. I’ll take whatever darts and ribs come my way. If I’m right, I’ll be doing some crowing. 

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Reagan

Reagan

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1 hour ago, UT alum said:

I’ve been paying attention to presidential elections since 1968 and I’ve followed and voted in every one since 1972. There have been 3 breaks I can think of and I watched them happen and could almost feel them happening. The first one was Jimmy Carter in 1979.  About ten days out he was ahead, but I could tell from the reporting and just people around here I talked to it always breaking fast towards Reagan. The second time was 1987.  Micheal Dukakis folded like a cheap suit. It was like watching a slow motion train wreck. The third one was in 2011.  Comey announced a reopening of Hillary’s laptop, which was the final straw, but I could tell a little before then that it was breaking fast towards Trump. Her campaign was poorly run.I think the 4th one is happening. Polls, campaigns, overall uptick  in enthusiasm for Harris and Democratic voters while Trump keeps up with bizarre speeches and low energy rallies. I been saying over and over a national campaign cannot outsourced. That’s the main responsibility of the national party for its nominees. It was a big mistake to put Musk in charge in Pennsylvania. An effective ground game cannot be bought. It has to be built. Trump’s 12 years of chaos within the party has allowed  the Republicans ground game to atrophy. I can feel the shift just like I felt the other three. I’m predicting an upset in Florida, Iowa, or Ohio. The house will probably wind up with a 25 seat Democratic majority, and I think the Democrats will also pick up a couple iof seats in the Senate.Donald Trump is going to lose bigly. If I’m wrong, I won’t hide. I’ll take whatever darts and ribs come my way. If I’m right, I’ll be doing some crowing. 

You can have your own opinions but you can't have your own facts!    (Grin)

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baddog

baddog

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8 hours ago, UT alum said:

I’ve been paying attention to presidential elections since 1968 and I’ve followed and voted in every one since 1972. There have been 3 breaks I can think of and I watched them happen and could almost feel them happening. The first one was Jimmy Carter in 1979.  About ten days out he was ahead, but I could tell from the reporting and just people around here I talked to it always breaking fast towards Reagan. The second time was 1987.  Micheal Dukakis folded like a cheap suit. It was like watching a slow motion train wreck. The third one was in 2011.  Comey announced a reopening of Hillary’s laptop, which was the final straw, but I could tell a little before then that it was breaking fast towards Trump. Her campaign was poorly run.I think the 4th one is happening. Polls, campaigns, overall uptick  in enthusiasm for Harris and Democratic voters while Trump keeps up with bizarre speeches and low energy rallies. I been saying over and over a national campaign cannot outsourced. That’s the main responsibility of the national party for its nominees. It was a big mistake to put Musk in charge in Pennsylvania. An effective ground game cannot be bought. It has to be built. Trump’s 12 years of chaos within the party has allowed  the Republicans ground game to atrophy. I can feel the shift just like I felt the other three. I’m predicting an upset in Florida, Iowa, or Ohio. The house will probably wind up with a 25 seat Democratic majority, and I think the Democrats will also pick up a couple iof seats in the Senate.Donald Trump is going to lose bigly. If I’m wrong, I won’t hide. I’ll take whatever darts and ribs come my way. If I’m right, I’ll be doing some crowing. 

Dude, you’re crowing now.

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Reagan

Reagan

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2 hours ago, UT alum said:

The Selzer Poll (a gold standard poll) shows Harris up 47-44 in Iowa. Mark my words…

 

Mark Mitchell, head pollster at Rasmussen, must be listening to our conversation!  LOL!

From Twitter:  "I said this exact quote two days ago: "I am seeing a coordinated left-wing operation claiming there is a "momentum shift" towards Harris." "I've seen this on X, TT, IG and you are now seeing it in the media. It has ramped up in the past few days." "They are creating a narrative that Kamala Harris is seeing a surprising surge in support. This is only to discourage right-wingers from voting. They do this every election and they are doing it now." The same poll claims Harris gained 30 points with seniors compared to their Biden 2020 poll."

Mark Mitchell said Kommiela has not been to Iowa and no money has been spent there.  So...

 

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UT alum

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42 minutes ago, Reagan said:

 

Mark Mitchell, head pollster at Rasmussen, must be listening to our conversation!  LOL!

From Twitter:  "I said this exact quote two days ago: "I am seeing a coordinated left-wing operation claiming there is a "momentum shift" towards Harris." "I've seen this on X, TT, IG and you are now seeing it in the media. It has ramped up in the past few days." "They are creating a narrative that Kamala Harris is seeing a surprising surge in support. This is only to discourage right-wingers from voting. They do this every election and they are doing it now." The same poll claims Harris gained 30 points with seniors compared to their Biden 2020 poll."

Mark Mitchell said Kommiela has not been to Iowa and no money has been spent there.  So...

 

Rasmussen consistently skews Republican. Every presidential cycle I’ve seen. So, I have my doubts about his comments. I’ll either look like a fool or a savant. We’ll see come Tuesday.

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UT alum

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1 hour ago, baddog said:

Have you forgotten how your queen, Hillary, was leading in the polls and was going to beat Trump in a landslide? How did that work out?

Did you read my opening post? I knew two weeks before that the polls were missing the break to Trump. This time I feel it’s going the other way.

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UT alum

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21 hours ago, Reagan said:

 

Mark Mitchell, head pollster at Rasmussen, must be listening to our conversation!  LOL!

From Twitter:  "I said this exact quote two days ago: "I am seeing a coordinated left-wing operation claiming there is a "momentum shift" towards Harris." "I've seen this on X, TT, IG and you are now seeing it in the media. It has ramped up in the past few days." "They are creating a narrative that Kamala Harris is seeing a surprising surge in support. This is only to discourage right-wingers from voting. They do this every election and they are doing it now." The same poll claims Harris gained 30 points with seniors compared to their Biden 2020 poll."

Mark Mitchell said Kommiela has not been to Iowa and no money has been spent there.  So...

 

Your Rasmussen dude conveniently left out the FACT that the 18% lead was taken from polls BEFORE June 24. The race started changing the day the Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade. Trump is sunk.

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aki1994

aki1994

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On 11/2/2024 at 11:38 PM, UT alum said:

I’ve been paying attention to presidential elections since 1968 and I’ve followed and voted in every one since 1972. There have been 3 breaks I can think of and I watched them happen and could almost feel them happening. The first one was Jimmy Carter in 1979.  About ten days out he was ahead, but I could tell from the reporting and just people around here I talked to it always breaking fast towards Reagan. The second time was 1987.  Micheal Dukakis folded like a cheap suit. It was like watching a slow motion train wreck. The third one was in 2011.  Comey announced a reopening of Hillary’s laptop, which was the final straw, but I could tell a little before then that it was breaking fast towards Trump. Her campaign was poorly run.I think the 4th one is happening. Polls, campaigns, overall uptick  in enthusiasm for Harris and Democratic voters while Trump keeps up with bizarre speeches and low energy rallies. I been saying over and over a national campaign cannot outsourced. That’s the main responsibility of the national party for its nominees. It was a big mistake to put Musk in charge in Pennsylvania. An effective ground game cannot be bought. It has to be built. Trump’s 12 years of chaos within the party has allowed  the Republicans ground game to atrophy. I can feel the shift just like I felt the other three. I’m predicting an upset in Florida, Iowa, or Ohio. The house will probably wind up with a 25 seat Democratic majority, and I think the Democrats will also pick up a couple iof seats in the Senate.Donald Trump is going to lose bigly. If I’m wrong, I won’t hide. I’ll take whatever darts and ribs come my way. If I’m right, I’ll be doing some crowing. 

2011? Trump. Off just a tad. Florida? Wrong on that one. Trump is up by a million votes already. 

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UT alum

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30 minutes ago, aki1994 said:

2011? Trump. Off just a tad. Florida? Wrong on that one. Trump is up by a million votes already. 

2015. I said one of three states would flip. Florida was least likely of the three, but I will bat  at least .333. That gets you in the hall of fame.

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