ESPN Bracketologgy LU in play-in game

[JMay]

The updated version of ESPN Bracketology has Lamar playing Alabama A&M in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

Any thoughts??

Hey at least Brackets Joe likes LU's chance to win the Southland.

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[Guest coachacola]

That would be an easy win for LU.  But If LU wins the SLC tourney they'll probably be a 15 seed.  There's no way they would be in the play-in game.

[JMay]

I can see them as a 15 or 16 if they win the tournament.  I also think the play-in game is a long shot, especially with all the upsets that happen during tournament week.  Does anyone think we have a realistic shot at an NIT bid?  I would say SFA is a lock, but what about us?

[Guest coachacola]

The regular season winner of the SLC gets an automatic bid to the NIT if they do not win the SLC tourney.

[JMay]

That actually goes in LU's favor right now.  They are 11-1, while the 'Jacks are 10-2.

[Lazeek]

The only way LU gets a Post Season Tourney bid is if they win the Conference or the Conference Tourney.  No chance if they finish 2nd in the conference and lose a game in the tournament.  C'mon baby just win out!!!!!

[AggiesAreWe]

The only way LU gets a Post Season Tourney bid is if they win the Conference or the Conference Tourney.  No chance if they finish 2nd in the conference and lose a game in the tournament.  C'mon baby just win out!!!!!

I agree Lazeek. Lamar needs either to win out in conference or win the conference tourney, or both, which would be my preference. There is though another opportunity for Lamar to go to a post season tournament. After the NCAA and NIT get there fields, there is another post season tournament with a 16 team field. I am quite sure the Cards would make this one if they failed to make the prior 2. So, in that regards, there are other chances.

[JMay]

The 3rd post season tournament will compete with the NIT for teams, and in an interesting twist, the championship will be a best of three series.

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[Guest abovetherim]

This guy is a joke. His "Bracketology" is a joke. I would have more respect for his work if he would take SFA for example and leave them in until they lose. But no, what does this "College Basketball Expert" do? Lamar wins both games last week and drops from a 16 seed to a "play-in-game". Give me a break. Put SFA in at a 15 seed and leave them there until they lose another conference game (I don't think they will) or in the conference tournament.

So, I'm not saying Lamar deserves a spot in his "Bracketology" but I don't find it professionally done. I guess he doesn't even factor in the "probability" some of the lower conferences favorites will lose in their conference tournament.  ??? ???

[UNLV]

A play in game counts as a NCAA win or lose. Lamar can get a win in the books playing a play in.

[weslinder]

This guy is a joke. His "Bracketology" is a joke. I would have more respect for his work if he would take SFA for example and leave them in until they lose. But no, what does this "College Basketball Expert" do? Lamar wins both games last week and drops from a 16 seed to a "play-in-game". Give me a break. Put SFA in at a 15 seed and leave them there until they lose another conference game (I don't think they will) or in the conference tournament.

So, I'm not saying Lamar deserves a spot in his "Bracketology" but I don't find it professionally done. I guess he doesn't even factor in the "probability" some of the lower conferences favorites will lose in their conference tournament.  ??? ???

Joe Lunardi has been ridiculously accurate at predicting the NCAA field.  He's accurate, not just with in and out, but also with seedings and even sometimes, who plays whom.  I don't disagree with you necessarily, but if you have a problem with his projections, you have a problem with the selection committee.

[Guest abovetherim]

Well, I guess I won't be alone as Pat Foster sure had a problem with the selection committee.  ;D

[Guest coachacola]

I think he's looking strictly at RPI, and with LU around 122, it's one of the lowest RPI's from all the conferences.  Only the SWAC and Mid-Eastern conferences have first place teams with lower RPIs.  But the season doesn't end today and if LU wins the SLC tourney they'll be riding a long winning streak and will have a RPI around 100.  That'll give them a 15 seed.

[Guest abovetherim]

This guy is a joke. His "Bracketology" is a joke. I would have more respect for his work if he would take SFA for example and leave them in until they lose. But no, what does this "College Basketball Expert" do? Lamar wins both games last week and drops from a 16 seed to a "play-in-game". Give me a break. Put SFA in at a 15 seed and leave them there until they lose another conference game (I don't think they will) or in the conference tournament.

So, I'm not saying Lamar deserves a spot in his "Bracketology" but I don't find it professionally done. I guess he doesn't even factor in the "probability" some of the lower conferences favorites will lose in their conference tournament.  ??? ???

Joe Lunardi has been ridiculously accurate at predicting the NCAA field.  He's accurate, not just with in and out, but also with seedings and even sometimes, who plays whom.  I don't disagree with you necessarily, but if you have a problem with his projections, you have a problem with the selection committee.

Weslinder, I'm going to save Joe's "Bracketology" for this week and compare it to the one he puts out before Selection Sunday and see how accurate this is. I would think a guy getting paid by ESPN could be "ridiculously accurate" for the last one before the selection is announced. Plus, if the guy is "well connected" I'm sure a few people on the committee can provide him with some information like who is going to travel where.

I'm willing to bet, there will be a lot of changes between now and his final "Bracketology". So for the final one he puts out I'll put this one next to it. Then and we all can compare how great he is in late February. Sound good? 

[Guest abovetherim]

I think he's looking strictly at RPI, and with LU around 122, it's one of the lowest RPI's from all the conferences.  Only the SWAC and Mid-Eastern conferences have first place teams with lower RPIs.  But the season doesn't end today and if LU wins the SLC tourney they'll be riding a long winning streak and will have a RPI around 100.  That'll give them a 15 seed.

Here is the InsideRPI Daily for the Southland.

RPI

RNK  TEAM RPI D1

W-L SOS SOS% NC

RP NC

SS CF

RP CF

SS CF

RK 1-25 26-50 51-100 L10 L

RPI OffQ DefQ ASM

46 Stephen F. Austin .5790 18-3 244 .460 96 293 73 180 19 0-0 1-0 1-2 9-1 23 -5.4 12.6 7.2

87 Sam Houston State .5490 15-6 195 .484 63 240 147 152 19 0-0 1-1 1-1 6-4 50 -0.9 4.0 3.1

122 Lamar .5263 13-8 180 .492 270 184 35 165 19 0-0 0-3 1-2 10-0 142 8.1 -6.9 1.2

183 Texas-Arlington .4904 13-9 273 .448 126 263 243 244 19 0-0 0-1 0-2 5-5 231 1.5 -1.2 0.3

199 Northwestern State .4777 9-14 163 .500 300 134 140 167 19 0-1 0-2 1-3 5-5 212 2.0 -12.1 -10.1

216 Texas-San Antonio .4704 8-13 173 .493 272 195 176 155 19 0-1 0-2 0-2 5-5 242 -7.0 0.4 -6.6

225 Southeastern Louisiana .4669 10-11 269 .450 237 275 216 223 19 0-0 0-2 1-1 5-5 186 -6.6 4.6 -2.0

236 McNeese State .4606 8-13 242 .461 276 270 240 197 19 0-0 0-2 0-2 4-6 229 -7.5 0.2 -7.3

262 Nicholls State .4426 6-20 139 .512 200 83 294 189 19 0-1 1-2 0-3 1-9 263 -7.1 -0.6 -7.7

265 Texas A&M-CC .4416 8-17 194 .484 268 182 229 200 19 0-0 0-3 1-3 5-5 196 -6.2 -0.3 -6.5

268 Texas State .4393 9-14 302 .434 293 325 271 226 19 0-1 0-2 1-0 4-6 163 11.4 -18.4 -7.0

277 Central Arkansas .4313 9-14 317 .422 249 336 299 204 19 0-0 0-1 0-2 2-8 248 -5.7 -1.7 -7.4

Glossary

• Rank: Teams ranked 1-341 by RPI.

• RPI: Numeric ratings percentage index (with home/road adjustments).

• DI W-L: W/L record vs. Division I opponents only.

• SOS: Teams ranked 1-341 by schedule strength.

• SOS%: Average winning percentage of all DI opponents.

• NC RP: Teams ranked 1-341 by nonconference RPI only.

• NC SS: Teams ranked 1-341 by nonconference SOS only.

• CF RP: Teams ranked 1-341 by in conference games only.

• CF SS: Teams ranked 1-341 by by conference schedule only.

• CF RK: Leagues ranked 1-32 by Conference RPI.

• 1-25: Record vs. InsideRPI 1-25 teams.

• 26-50: Record vs. InsideRPI 26-50 teams.

• 51-100: Record vs. InsideRPI 51-100 teams.

• L10: Record in Last 10 DI games.

• L RPI: Joe Lunardi's preferred RPI formula.

• OffQ: Points per game above/below average allowed by all opponents.

• DefQ: Points alloed below/above average scored by all opponents.

• ASM: Adjusted Scoring Margin (sum of Offensive Quotient and Defensive Quotient.

http://proxy.espn.go.com/ncb/rpi?groupId=25&sort=RNK&univLogin02=stateChanged

[Guest abovetherim]

Lamar loses a game and the Cardinals move from play-in-game to 16 seed versus #1 UCLA. Heck, I hope he is right. I'd love to see Lamar play the Bruins. I won't be stupid and predict an upset but they would know where Beaumont, Texas was after the game.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology?lpos=spotlight&lid=tab1pos1

[Guest roberthollister]

When was the last time a number 16 seed upset a number one seed?  Has it happened in the last 10, 20 years?  I'm not a big basketball fan but I've been following Lamar.

[Guest abovetherim]

It has never happened. A 16 seed has never beat a 1 seed since the field was increased to 64 and now 65. But, there is a first time for everything. UCLA is a great time but IMO the Cardinals match-up better with them than any other current #1 seed.

[Guest mffl]

It has never happened. A 16 seed has never beat a 1 seed since the field was increased to 64 and now 65. But, there is a first time for everything. UCLA is a great time but IMO the Cardinals match-up better with them than anyone other current #1 seed.

I think we would have no answer for love... look what Kleon Penn did to us, you can only imagine what Kevin Love would do.

[KFDM COOP]

[Guest abovetherim]

I'll name two schools that played well at UCLA in the past few years. Wagner College and SHSU with Coach Deane's team losing 74-72. Love is great but not overly athletic. Regardless if Lamar is a 16 seed, they are the #1 seed the Cardinals match-up best against. I think we are better suited to play them than Memphis, Tennessee or North Carolina.

Again, please take my statement in context. UCLA, Memphis, Tennessee and North Carolina are all great teams with great players. But if I stated Lamar best chance was versus Memphis, you probably bring up Derrick Rose. If I stated Tennessee you could bring up Chris Lofton. North Carolina, Tyler Hansbrough is a junior and is averaging 23 ppg and 10 rpg.

So, pick your poison. I'll take the freshman Love who is averaging 17 ppg and 11 rpg. He is only averaging 1 block per game. I know it's the Pac 10 but he really isn't a skywalker nor is he long.

Remember, I would perfer not playing any of them but I'll stick with who I believe is the best match-up if Lamar wins the SLC Tournament and these are the #1 seeds and the selection committee does us a favor and puts us against one of those teams. 

[UNLV]

If Lamar is the 16th seed, Lamar will be the best 16th seed in the history of the tourney.

[JMay]

This is the closest of the 16 seeds have come -

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[JMay]

I was also able to find these highlights of the "the one that should have been"  Geoorgetown/Princeton

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[KFDM COOP]

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