**Chris Dies**

[Guest GoStangs]

[vp93]

Isn't that close to the track that Rita took?

[kicker]

i believe Rita was a westward not a wnw

[KFDM COOP]

Rita was moving west then turned NW as ridge weakened. We'll have to start watching this close as forecast track keeps it moving through the Florida Keys.

[KFDM COOP]

I don't like this latest track!!! :shock:

[kicker]

When does the plane go in?

[KFDM COOP]

In there now.

[Guest GoStangs]

Isn't that close to the track that Rita took?

Here's Rita's track:

[Guest etbu]

Goes into Fla and comes out? Big as Rita?

[KFDM COOP]

Could be with the water as warm as it is!! We'll know alot more by the weekend!

[Guest bulldogbark]

that bad boy needs to make a drastic turn to the west...I do not want my electricity to go out as hot as it is now. ok so I am spoiled now...we could use the rain here but nothing else :evil:

[KFDM COOP]

The top map from the NHC updates every 6 hours or so. Next one will be at 10 or so.

[Guest GoStangs]

What's up with the "AccuWeather" picture? It has a projected landfall of between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Florida panhandle.... Basically, the entire western Gulf is in the target. :?

[KFDM COOP]

Cone of uncertainy! None of the computer models even really have it yet.

[Guest GoStangs]

The Cone of Uncertainy? :shock:

Not to make fun of something this serious, but that really sounds like something off the show "Get Smart!"

[Guest GoStangs]

I went ahead and put a map of the computer models under the other maps at the top of this thread.

[KFDM COOP]

Thanks. I've been looking at models the last hour or so. Just hard to say this far out. The one you put up, the northern track seems alot more reasonable than the southern tracks due to it's location right now.

[kicker]

Here we go again :roll:

Better start calling my relatives in the North. :cry:

There is no way Orange can take another Hurricane!!!!

[KFDM COOP]

I hear you. Still to early to say where? Mid Texas Coast would be my first guess right now.

[Bread]

So what would we get from that if it hit mid texas?

[kicker]

So what would we get from that if it hit mid texas?

probably nothing at all. Maybe some rain?

[KFDM COOP]

Depends on how big it is in size? Right now it is small. We'll see what happens the next few days.

[kicker]

Depends on how big it is in size? Right now it is small. We'll see what happens the next few days.

Its quite funny, I've read four different sites, and they all say different things about this storm.

Coop, what do yall REALLY get paid for

[kicker]

hey Coop, paste another one of those"gibberish" outlooks yall get.

[KFDM COOP]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006

1100 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR AND HIGH-RESOLUTION

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CHRIS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING

BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9

KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LAST

RECON-MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF

3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS

CONTINUES TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR. ON THE

PREDICTED TRACK...AND BASED ON THE 200 MB WIND FORECAST FROM THE

GFS...CHRIS WILL BE IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL

CYCLONES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS A REASONABLY FAVORABLE

UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS

FORECAST. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST

SHIPS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE ABOVE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION.

AS ALWAYS...IT SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY

FORECASTS AT 3-5 DAYS HAVE LITTLE SKILL.

LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL HEADING OR

SPEED. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR

THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE

NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE A RATHER STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS

TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THIS KIND OF FLOW PATTERN WOULD STEER THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER AN

EVEN STRONGER RIDGE WOULD LIKELY DRIVE CHRIS WESTWARD. INDEED...

THIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE GFDL MODEL WHICH EVEN TURNS THE

SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A WHILE. WHEREAS THE GFDL IS A

HIGHLY CREDIBLE MODEL...THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE AT THIS TIME IS TO

USE THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS IS ALSO

VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 19.2N 63.4W 55 KT

12HR VT 03/0000Z 19.8N 64.8W 60 KT

24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.3N 66.4W 65 KT

36HR VT 04/0000Z 20.8N 68.0W 65 KT

48HR VT 04/1200Z 21.4N 70.1W 70 KT

72HR VT 05/1200Z 22.5N 74.5W 70 KT

96HR VT 06/1200Z 23.5N 79.0W 70 KT

120HR VT 07/1200Z 24.5N 83.5W 70 KT