* HURRICANE GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL*

[KFDM COOP]

THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING AS IT INTERACTED WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS

LANDMASS OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI.  HOWEVER A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

MOTION...290/4...APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED THIS MORNING.  A 500 MB

HIGH CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING

EASTWARD AND WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE STORM TOWARD THE

WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BEGINNING

AROUND DAY 3...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE THE

RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE

GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.  THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH

72 HOURS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT BY DAY 5.  ONE SHOULD

NOT READ MUCH INTO SUCH SHIFTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE

TYPICAL ERROR OF A 5-DAY PREDICTION IS OVER 300 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/1500Z 18.8N  74.0W    50 KT

12HR VT    28/0000Z 19.0N  74.8W    55 KT

24HR VT    28/1200Z 19.2N  76.0W    60 KT

36HR VT    29/0000Z 19.3N  77.5W    70 KT

48HR VT    29/1200Z 19.9N  79.4W    80 KT

72HR VT    30/1200Z 21.5N  83.0W  100 KT

96HR VT    31/1200Z 24.5N  86.0W  100 KT

120HR VT    01/1200Z 28.5N  88.5W  100 KT

[Ruckdad]

Where are you guys seeing the models?

[KFDM COOP]

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[tvc184]

Where are you guys seeing the models?

Forget the models, I have already made the call.

[Ruckdad]

TVC - I will sleep much better tonight, thanks!

[82 5A State Champs]

Not looking good for my friends @ Outlaw-Performance in New Orleans. :'(

[tvc184]

Not looking good for my friends @ Outlaw-Performance in New Orleans. :'(

Not to worry unless they are about to vacation in Pensacola.

[westend1]

Where are you guys seeing the models?

you can try weatherunderground.com

[BUCman]

Coop does it look like that high pressure system will be moving or will it save our butts?

[KFDM COOP]

Won't know until Friday sometime!

[bullets13]

coop, you willing to give odds on whether we have to evacuate or not?

[KFDM COOP]

50-50 right now, wish i could answer it now.

[bullets13]

50-50 right now, wish i could answer it now.

if we do need to evacuate, when will need to start leaving?

[KFDM COOP]

Sunday or early Mon.

[tvc184]

coop, you willing to give odds on whether we have to evacuate or not?

10-90

[tvc184]

Sunday or early Mon.

About 6:00AM Monday at the latest. That would be pushing it and I don't think we will wait that long. The evacuation needs to be complete before the storm even starts making landfall and Monday is right at the edge of the safe envelope.

[82 5A State Champs]

Most of the models that I'm seeing show it going into Eastern LA.....hopefully! :-\

[YankeeDawg]

Looks like this thing has shifted again....to the west!!

Gonna make for an interesting Labor Day weekend..

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[Lefty99]

I'm not liking this at all!  Please go somewhere else!  If your going out of town for the weekend boys you might as well take all that you can!  We may have a long weekend!

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[bullets13]

not good to see some of the projections slowly sneaking westward.

[KFDM COOP]

No it's not!!

[PURPLE 4EVER]

My gut still tells me the east coast of Louisiana will not be a good place to be on Tuesday.

[Razor]

I hope you are right, purple.

[KFDM COOP]

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  15

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL072008

1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT ABOUT 1130 UTC SHOWED THE CIRCULATION

CENTER HAD BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE EARLIER THIS MORNING.  MY SENSE

FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE THEN IS THAT GUSTAV HAS STARTED MOVING

SLOWLY WESTWARD...PERHAPS 265/4.  IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE CENTER

WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER JAMAICA OR WILL HUG THE SOUTH OR NORTH

COAST...BUT WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...ALL MODELS

FORECAST GUSTAV TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR

SO.  A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD

ALLOW GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FOLLOWING

FEW DAYS.  THE MODELS ALSO FORECAST A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO

PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME

FRAME...BUT SUFFICIENTLY PROGRESSIVE SUCH THAT IT WOULD NOT BLOCK

GUSTAV'S NORTHWARD PROGRESS.  THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD

AGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...NEAR OR

OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF

MEXICO.  SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH LATE IN

THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD FORCE GUSTAV TO TURN A LITTLE BACK TO THE

WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...BUT THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE

MINORITY.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SLOWING OF

THE FORWARD MOTION AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF

COAST...AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST TO BE IN LINE WITH

THE CONSENSUS.  RELIABLE MODELS REMAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE

FORECAST TRACK...SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL

TRACK.

THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER

AIRCRAFT DATA...AND ANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE WILL ARRIVE ON THE

SCENE THIS AFTERNOON.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE

CONTINUES TO REORGANIZE...BUT THE INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA DURING

THE NEXT DAY OR SO MIGHT LIMIT INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH ONLY A

SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD MAKE GUSTAV A HURRICANE AT ANY

TIME TODAY.  AFTER PASSING JAMAICA...GUSTAV WILL ENCOUNTER THE VERY

WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW

ALOFT...FAVORING INTENSIFICATION.  ANY INTERACTION WITH THE NARROW

LANDMASS OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE

STRENGTH OF GUSTAV OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE WATERS WILL BE

WARM BUT WIND SHEAR COULD SLOWLY INCREASE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL

INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE FASTER STRENGTHENING OVER THE

NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY

AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/1500Z 17.9N  76.1W    60 KT

12HR VT    29/0000Z 17.9N  77.1W    65 KT...NEAR JAMAICA

24HR VT    29/1200Z 18.4N  79.0W    70 KT

36HR VT    30/0000Z 19.1N  80.8W    80 KT

48HR VT    30/1200Z 20.2N  82.6W    95 KT

72HR VT    31/1200Z 23.5N  86.0W  100 KT

96HR VT    01/1200Z 27.0N  89.0W  100 KT

120HR VT    02/1200Z 29.5N  91.0W  100 KT...NEAR COAST OF LA

[Homer]

I bet Gustav is going to end up just east of Lake Charles.