KFDM COOP Posted August 27, 2008 Author Report Posted August 27, 2008 THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING AS IT INTERACTED WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LANDMASS OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. HOWEVER A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...290/4...APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED THIS MORNING. A 500 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD AND WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEGINNING AROUND DAY 3...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD CAUSE GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT BY DAY 5. ONE SHOULD NOT READ MUCH INTO SUCH SHIFTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE TYPICAL ERROR OF A 5-DAY PREDICTION IS OVER 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 18.8N 74.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 74.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 19.2N 76.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 19.3N 77.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 19.9N 79.4W 80 KT 72HR VT 30/1200Z 21.5N 83.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 31/1200Z 24.5N 86.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 01/1200Z 28.5N 88.5W 100 KT
KFDM COOP Posted August 27, 2008 Author Report Posted August 27, 2008 This is the hidden content, please Sign In or Sign Up
tvc184 Posted August 27, 2008 Report Posted August 27, 2008 Where are you guys seeing the models? Forget the models, I have already made the call.
Ruckdad Posted August 27, 2008 Report Posted August 27, 2008 TVC - I will sleep much better tonight, thanks!
82 5A State Champs Posted August 27, 2008 Report Posted August 27, 2008 Not looking good for my friends @ Outlaw-Performance in New Orleans. :'(
tvc184 Posted August 27, 2008 Report Posted August 27, 2008 Not looking good for my friends @ Outlaw-Performance in New Orleans. :'( Not to worry unless they are about to vacation in Pensacola.
westend1 Posted August 27, 2008 Report Posted August 27, 2008 Where are you guys seeing the models? you can try weatherunderground.com
BUCman Posted August 27, 2008 Report Posted August 27, 2008 Coop does it look like that high pressure system will be moving or will it save our butts?
KFDM COOP Posted August 27, 2008 Author Report Posted August 27, 2008 Won't know until Friday sometime!
bullets13 Posted August 27, 2008 Report Posted August 27, 2008 coop, you willing to give odds on whether we have to evacuate or not?
KFDM COOP Posted August 27, 2008 Author Report Posted August 27, 2008 50-50 right now, wish i could answer it now.
bullets13 Posted August 27, 2008 Report Posted August 27, 2008 50-50 right now, wish i could answer it now. if we do need to evacuate, when will need to start leaving?
tvc184 Posted August 27, 2008 Report Posted August 27, 2008 coop, you willing to give odds on whether we have to evacuate or not? 10-90
tvc184 Posted August 27, 2008 Report Posted August 27, 2008 Sunday or early Mon. About 6:00AM Monday at the latest. That would be pushing it and I don't think we will wait that long. The evacuation needs to be complete before the storm even starts making landfall and Monday is right at the edge of the safe envelope.
82 5A State Champs Posted August 27, 2008 Report Posted August 27, 2008 Most of the models that I'm seeing show it going into Eastern LA.....hopefully! :-\
YankeeDawg Posted August 27, 2008 Report Posted August 27, 2008 Looks like this thing has shifted again....to the west!! Gonna make for an interesting Labor Day weekend.. This is the hidden content, please Sign In or Sign Up
Lefty99 Posted August 28, 2008 Report Posted August 28, 2008 I'm not liking this at all! Please go somewhere else! If your going out of town for the weekend boys you might as well take all that you can! We may have a long weekend! This is the hidden content, please Sign In or Sign Up
bullets13 Posted August 28, 2008 Report Posted August 28, 2008 not good to see some of the projections slowly sneaking westward.
PURPLE 4EVER Posted August 28, 2008 Report Posted August 28, 2008 My gut still tells me the east coast of Louisiana will not be a good place to be on Tuesday.
KFDM COOP Posted August 28, 2008 Author Report Posted August 28, 2008 TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008 THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT ABOUT 1130 UTC SHOWED THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAD BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE EARLIER THIS MORNING. MY SENSE FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE THEN IS THAT GUSTAV HAS STARTED MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...PERHAPS 265/4. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE CENTER WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER JAMAICA OR WILL HUG THE SOUTH OR NORTH COAST...BUT WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...ALL MODELS FORECAST GUSTAV TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FOLLOWING FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ALSO FORECAST A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME...BUT SUFFICIENTLY PROGRESSIVE SUCH THAT IT WOULD NOT BLOCK GUSTAV'S NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD FORCE GUSTAV TO TURN A LITTLE BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...BUT THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MINORITY. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST TO BE IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS. RELIABLE MODELS REMAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FORECAST TRACK...SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL TRACK. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...AND ANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE WILL ARRIVE ON THE SCENE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO REORGANIZE...BUT THE INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO MIGHT LIMIT INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD MAKE GUSTAV A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME TODAY. AFTER PASSING JAMAICA...GUSTAV WILL ENCOUNTER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...FAVORING INTENSIFICATION. ANY INTERACTION WITH THE NARROW LANDMASS OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE STRENGTH OF GUSTAV OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE WATERS WILL BE WARM BUT WIND SHEAR COULD SLOWLY INCREASE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE FASTER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 17.9N 76.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 17.9N 77.1W 65 KT...NEAR JAMAICA 24HR VT 29/1200Z 18.4N 79.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 19.1N 80.8W 80 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 20.2N 82.6W 95 KT 72HR VT 31/1200Z 23.5N 86.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 27.0N 89.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 91.0W 100 KT...NEAR COAST OF LA
Homer Posted August 28, 2008 Report Posted August 28, 2008 I bet Gustav is going to end up just east of Lake Charles.
Recommended Posts