Gasilla Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 Things look great here on the ranch in East Texas. Getting ready to go fishing!!!!! Heading home by 9am in the morning. Since they have called for a mandatory evacuation in Beaumont will we have any trouble getting home around lunch time tomorrow? I don't think they block hwy's unless the area is declared a disaster area. I think a mandatory evac means there will be no emergency services available, your pretty much on your own, but I'm pretty sure they do not stop traffic.
HoopInsider_Cooper Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 We have my laptop...He will be on later...SETX not out of the woods yet!!!! Models shifted westward towards Cameron.
stangchain Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 Am curious about that statement, HoopCoop. They aren't showing that at all on TWC!!!! Please show us a model example, if possible. Some of us are staying!
RonBurgundy68 Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 That was from 1 PM and it still doesnt look good after it makes landfall, but I guess we'll have to wait and see what it looks like at the new update... About how often does it update?
HoopInsider_Cooper Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 We need Gustav to keep flying....Greg said an expected WNW movement and we hope its after landfall. Before, would mean worse scenario for SETX...That high is building for the north. Lazeek, the answer is no. Unless they lift the mandatory evac, you must possess a hologram sticker to return before evac orders are lifted...Just guessing, that's if we just get rain, etc...Plans would be lifted Tues/Wed. Do expect plenty of rain and TS winds so power is likely to go out. The next big advisory is 4pm...the 1pm is intermediate.
HoopInsider_Cooper Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 Also, remember that line is where they think the EYE will make landfall and there's about an 60 mile error with it...Remember, 'canes are very big in width.
adminbaberuth Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 Greg is correct: This on another board: "The hurricane hunters have just reported a central pressure of 957 mb which is 3 mb lower than last advisory. Furthermore Gustav is looking better on the satellite imagery now. I am hearing the models are also shifting just a bit further west."
HoopInsider_Cooper Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 4pm update then a big one @ 10pm the 7 will b intermediate. Gusie is hauling, which is a good sign...OUT RUN THAT HIGH GUS....LIKE GARRETT DID THE 'DOGS!!!! - per Kerry.
adminbaberuth Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 4pm update then a big one @ 10pm the 7 will b intermediate. Gusie is hauling, which is a good sign...OUT RUN THAT HIGH GUS....LIKE GARRETT DID THE 'DOGS!!!! - per Kerry. Allright Coop, take that WOS hat off and put that meteorologist hat on, I would like to keep my roof on.
mikesrex Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 I'm still here in Beaumont area. Going to ride Gustav out if it hits here. I have a feeling we will get hit by the "good" part of the storm if there is such a thing. Only time will tell. everyone be safe!
HoopInsider_Cooper Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 From Eric Berger, Scientific nut @ Hou Chronicle Odds increasing that New Orleans will be spared the worst The big question with Hurricane Gustav is whether the storm will make landfall close enough to New Orleans to bring about catastrophic flooding in that city. Today I feel more optimistic that the city will be spared Gustav's worst effects. Let's discuss why. As of 1 p.m. today, the storm's maximum sustained winds had dropped to 115 mph, which indicates it hasn't yet begun to significantly re-intensify. And now some of the models, such as the newest HWRF, only bring a Category 2 hurricane to the Louisiana coast. The official forecast still predicts a major hurricane at landfall, but Gustav is running out of time to build a massive storm surge (by becoming a strong Category 4 hurricane) before coming ashore sometime tomorrow. And we haven't even considered the possibility that wind shear will inhibit strengthening. Couple this with a passel of the most recent model runs that show a slightly westward trend and the chances of Category 3 hurricane winds blowing water into Lake Pontchartrain have fallen. I suspect the hurricane center's 4 p.m. update of the official track will show a modest westward shift. For those in Beaumont and Port Arthur, I still don't think the storm will come in far enough west to bring hurricane-force winds to your area, but it remains a possibility on the order of 10-20 percent. Tropical systems are simply unpredictable and all it would take is a slight wobble. You'll need to keep a close eye on Gustav. The chances of anything more than tropical depression-force winds in the Houston area remains less than one-in-three.
adminbaberuth Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 000 WTNT32 KNHC 312039 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008 ...GUSTAV MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD... AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... GUSTAV SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES...350 KM. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD ONTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS STARTING TO SPREAD ONSHORE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.4 N...87.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
HoopInsider_Cooper Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 Track a bit westard (noting nothing major)...racing @ 18mph NW....sustained winds @ 115
HoopInsider_Cooper Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 Here is the good latest discussion from nhc THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 15-16 KT...WITH 320/16 BEING THE ADVISORY MOTION. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW GUIDANCE RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE HWRF...SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND SINCE IT LIES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL SHIFTS MAY BE NECESSARY LATER. AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE REMAINS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES...SHEAR APART AND STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR FOLLOWS THE SHEAR-APART-AND-STALL SCENARIO...CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS OVER LAND.
adminbaberuth Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 That sounds better, Hoop. The Fox meteorologist just said the reason High Island was added to Hurricane Warning was because Gustav was just closer to the coast, just a slight movement to the West.
Mr. Buddy Garrity Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 this is the main part of the article i was reading about a few days ago "A storm surge of more than 15 foot would put extreme pressure on New Orleans' flood defenses. The city is still vulnerable to a surge from the east, as happened during Hurricane Katrina, and to a lesser extent from Lake Pontchartrain to the north," commented Dr. Christine Ziehmann, director of model management at RMS. "The levees have been strengthened since Katrina, but only about a quarter of the planned work on the city's flood defenses has been completed, which would provide protection against a hurricane that occurs on average once every one hundred years." evacuating early---great fixing the levees---pure hot garbage of a job.
KFDM COOP Posted August 31, 2008 Author Report Posted August 31, 2008 Evreyone stay safe!!!! Could be bad if a west trend continues!!
stangchain Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 Please keep up informed on this site if you don't mind. If it continues to move west, would we see something on Tuesday?
BearWolf Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 it's making a western move seems like. What's up Coop
adminbaberuth Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 Listening to Gov Jindal on Fox, I think we are going to be allright here in Texas.
Mr. Buddy Garrity Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 remember 3 years ago katrina was suppose to hit N.O., it bobbled east hrs before it came ashore.
tvc184 Posted August 31, 2008 Report Posted August 31, 2008 Things look great here on the ranch in East Texas. Getting ready to go fishing!!!!! Heading home by 9am in the morning. Since they have called for a mandatory evacuation in Beaumont will we have any trouble getting home around lunch time tomorrow? The only trouble coming back is fighting the crowd getting back in.
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