* HURRICANE GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL*

[KFDM COOP]

I-10 is supposed to stay open. Evacuation will begin Sunday and that announcement may come at 2pm.

[adminbaberuth]

SciGuy

A science blog with Eric Berger

"At this point I envision at least four possible scenarios, in order of most likely to least likely:"

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[bullets13]

we just came to dallas, and 45 was fine.  we got here in regular time.  i just saw that Gustav is upgraded to a category 4.  that's pretty crazy to go from a 1 to a 4 in a day.

[KFDM COOP]

[KFDM COOP]

BULLETIN

HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  25

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL072008

500 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT IMPACTS WESTERN CUBA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE

NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE

ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE

PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS

ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED ALONG THE PANHANDLE

COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD

TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF

PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE

JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE

AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN

COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE

OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN

PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND

CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE

BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...

210 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 80

MILES...135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.  DO NOT VENTURE

OUTSIDE DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE EYE...SINCE WINDS WILL SOON

RAPIDLY INCREASE AS EYEWALL AGAIN PASSES.  THE EYE IS ALSO CURRENTLY

CENTERED ABOUT 620 MILES...1000 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL

GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL CROSS WESTERN

CUBA TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY

ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR

HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS

WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS

PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH

LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175

MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT WAS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS

POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN

CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET

ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV

PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO

12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM

AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY

PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL

AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME

SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE

POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND

THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...82.9 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

PM EDT.

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

SciGuy

A science blog with Eric Berger

"At this point I envision at least four possible scenarios, in order of most likely to least likely:"

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[KFDM COOP]

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

New Orleans is going to get a massive storm surge, sure hope the levees work

[KFDM COOP]

Shift east again!!

[Lamar_Basketball]

Lazeek, I just needed gas to get back to Houston - moving into a new apartment tomorrow.

Had to wait 15 minutes to get a pump.  Sigh.

[adminbaberuth]

New Orleans Residents Are Ordered to Flee Hurricane

By ADAM NOSSITER and SHAILA DEWAN

NEW ORLEANS — City officials ordered everyone to leave New Orleans beginning Sunday morning — the first mandatory evacuation since Hurricane Katrina flooded the city three years ago — as Hurricane Gustav grew into what the city’s mayor called “the storm of the century†on Saturday and moved toward the Louisiana coast.

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[bullets13]

the new models look better!  if they are correct, what can we expect for beaumont?

[KFDM COOP]

Little to nothing if it hits that far east!

[adminbaberuth]

SciGuy

A science blog with Eric Berger

"At this time I know it's quite tempting to say southeast Texas can sound the all clear, especially the areas west of Beaumont. Yet tropical systems can surprise, and I want to see a couple more model runs before we can be certain Houston won't see hurricane-force winds. To do otherwise would be irresponsible. But we're getting close to that point.

It's worth noting, however, that forecasters generally have an easier time with tracks of large, intense and fast-moving hurricanes like Gustav. So the forecast error for Gustav is probably a little smaller than the average error of about 80 miles."

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[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

New Orleans Residents Are Ordered to Flee Hurricane

By ADAM NOSSITER and SHAILA DEWAN

NEW ORLEANS — City officials ordered everyone to leave New Orleans beginning Sunday morning — the first mandatory evacuation since Hurricane Katrina flooded the city three years ago — as Hurricane Gustav grew into what the city’s mayor called “the storm of the century†on Saturday and moved toward the Louisiana coast.

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stronger than Katrina. it could do more damage than her if it stalls out, not to mention if the levees dont work, in which i just read something that the mayor said---if the surge is more than 15-20 ft N.O. will be flooded again.

[WHFAN]

HARDIN COUNTY TEXAS OFFICIAL WEBSITE

HURRICANE GUSTAV INFORMATION

 

08/30/08

7:15 p.m.

From:  Hardin County Judge Billy Caraway

Re:      Hurricane evacuation plans

Hardin County Judge Billy Caraway has issued a mandatory evacuation for all Hardin County residents beginning at 6:00 a.m. on Sunday, Aug. 30. This order will remain in effect until it is deemed safe for citizens to return.

Residents should use Hwy. 96 North, Hwy. 69 North and FM 92 North. Emergency Management personnel from state and local governments have worked dilligently since Hurricane Rita to improve evacuation preparations, including fuel availability along the route.

The lastest information from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Gustav as a high Category 4 storm, with the potential to become a Category 5 storm before it makes landfall. The point of landfall for Hurricane Gustav is still uncertain, and based on current information from the National Hurricane Center, all residents are urged to follow this mandatory order.

Members of the Texas National Guard assisted more than 120 Hardin County residents today. They were evacuated by bus and ambulance. A number of those residents also brought their pets, who were also documented and evacuated with their owners.

Residents can still register with 2-1-1 for evacuation assistance, and those unable to evacuated on their own are encouraged to do so. The Silsbee Middle School evacuation hub is closed for this evening, Aug. 30, and will reopen on Aug. 31, at 7:30 a.m.

Residents who need more information or have questions should call Hardin County Emergency Management at 246-5119.

Prior Notices and Further Information Click Here

Hosting and Design by the County Information Resources Agency 

of the Texas Association of Counties

[KFDM COOP]

Still farther East!!!

[SETXsports Broadcaster]

I think I am in deep trouble :-\ :-[

[PNG70]

So whatcha think Coop......are  things looking better......if it stays like it is what would we get from it?

[Bulldog92]

I think I am in deep trouble :-\ :-[

You're leaving there right?

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

i think Coop hightailed it to deep East texas

[Bobcatfan4life]

He did. I don't think he has a computer up there

[lovethegame19]

So are we good here in Southeastexas?????? we had rooms in northeast texas, but should just stay now.....

[Lazeek]

Things look great here on the ranch in East Texas.  Getting ready to go fishing!!!!!  Heading home by 9am in the morning.  Since they have called for a mandatory evacuation in Beaumont will we have any trouble getting home around lunch time tomorrow? 

[77]

I'am stayin ???