* HURRICANE GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL*

[Gasilla]

Things look great here on the ranch in East Texas.  Getting ready to go fishing!!!!!  Heading home by 9am in the morning.  Since they have called for a mandatory evacuation in Beaumont will we have any trouble getting home around lunch time tomorrow? 

I don't think they block hwy's unless the area is declared a disaster area. I think a mandatory evac means there will be no emergency services available, your pretty much on your own, but I'm pretty sure they do not stop traffic.

[HoopInsider_Cooper]

We have my laptop...He will be on later...SETX not out of the woods yet!!!! Models shifted westward towards Cameron.

[stangchain]

Am curious about that statement, HoopCoop.  They aren't showing that at all on TWC!!!!  Please show us a model example, if possible.  Some of us are staying!

[adminbaberuth]

Please clarify Hoop.

[adminbaberuth]

[RonBurgundy68]

That was from 1 PM and it still doesnt look good after it makes landfall, but I guess we'll have to wait and see what it looks like at the new update... About how often does it update?

[HoopInsider_Cooper]

We need Gustav to keep flying....Greg said an expected WNW movement and we hope its after landfall. Before, would mean worse scenario for SETX...That high is building for the north.

Lazeek, the answer is no. Unless they lift the mandatory evac, you must possess a hologram sticker to return before evac orders are lifted...Just guessing, that's if we just get rain, etc...Plans would be lifted Tues/Wed.

Do expect plenty of rain and TS winds so power is likely to go out.

The next big advisory is 4pm...the 1pm is intermediate.

[HoopInsider_Cooper]

Also, remember that line is where they think the EYE will make landfall and there's about an 60 mile error with it...Remember, 'canes are very big in width.

[adminbaberuth]

Greg is correct:

This on another board:

"The hurricane hunters have just reported a central pressure of 957 mb which is 3 mb lower than last advisory.

Furthermore Gustav is looking better on the satellite imagery now.

I am hearing the models are also shifting just a bit further west."

[HoopInsider_Cooper]

4pm update then a big one @ 10pm the 7 will b intermediate.

Gusie is hauling, which is a good sign...OUT RUN THAT HIGH GUS....LIKE GARRETT DID THE 'DOGS!!!! - per Kerry.

[adminbaberuth]

4pm update then a big one @ 10pm the 7 will b intermediate.

Gusie is hauling, which is a good sign...OUT RUN THAT HIGH GUS....LIKE GARRETT DID THE 'DOGS!!!! - per Kerry.

Allright Coop, take that WOS hat off and put that meteorologist hat on, I would like to keep my roof on.

[mikesrex]

I'm still here in Beaumont area.  Going to ride Gustav out if it hits here.  I have a feeling we will get hit by the "good" part of the storm if there is such a thing.  Only time will tell.

everyone be safe!

[HoopInsider_Cooper]

From Eric Berger, Scientific nut @ Hou Chronicle

Odds increasing that New Orleans will be spared the worst

The big question with Hurricane Gustav is whether the storm will make landfall close enough to New Orleans to bring about catastrophic flooding in that city. Today I feel more optimistic that the city will be spared Gustav's worst effects. Let's discuss why.

As of 1 p.m. today, the storm's maximum sustained winds had dropped to 115 mph, which indicates it hasn't yet begun to significantly re-intensify. And now some of the models, such as the newest HWRF, only bring a Category 2 hurricane to the Louisiana coast.

The official forecast still predicts a major hurricane at landfall, but Gustav is running out of time to build a massive storm surge (by becoming a strong Category 4 hurricane) before coming ashore sometime tomorrow. And we haven't even considered the possibility that wind shear will inhibit strengthening.

Couple this with a passel of the most recent model runs that show a slightly westward trend and the chances of Category 3 hurricane winds blowing water into Lake Pontchartrain have fallen. I suspect the hurricane center's 4 p.m. update of the official track will show a modest westward shift.

For those in Beaumont and Port Arthur, I still don't think the storm will come in far enough west to bring hurricane-force winds to your area, but it remains a possibility on the order of 10-20 percent. Tropical systems are simply unpredictable and all it would take is a slight wobble. You'll need to keep a close eye on Gustav.

The chances of anything more than tropical depression-force winds in the Houston area remains less than one-in-three.

[adminbaberuth]

000

WTNT32 KNHC 312039

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  29

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008

400 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GUSTAV MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF

MEXICO...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD

ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND

TEXAS.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH

ISLAND EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY

OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS

THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND

PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE

ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.  A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED

FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES...

350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.  THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...

GUSTAV SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE.  SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  FLUCTUATIONS

IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO

REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220

MILES...350 KM.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD

ONTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS

STARTING TO SPREAD ONSHORE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL

TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER

OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN

THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO

12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND

SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20

INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.   ADDITIONAL RAINFALL

AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND

SOUTH FLORIDA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.4 N...87.3 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000

PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[HoopInsider_Cooper]

Track a bit westard (noting nothing major)...racing @ 18mph NW....sustained winds @ 115

[adminbaberuth]

[HoopInsider_Cooper]

Here is the good latest discussion from nhc

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 15-16

KT...WITH 320/16 BEING THE ADVISORY MOTION.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN

THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WITH A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER

GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE NEW

GUIDANCE RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE HWRF...SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN

AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE

LOUISIANA COAST.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE

LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND SINCE IT LIES NEAR THE EASTERN

EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL SHIFTS MAY BE

NECESSARY LATER.  AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE REMAINS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT

BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO

THE WESTERLIES...SHEAR APART AND STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR

TURN SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR FOLLOWS THE

SHEAR-APART-AND-STALL SCENARIO...CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO MOVE SLOWLY

WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS OVER LAND.

[adminbaberuth]

That sounds better, Hoop.

The Fox meteorologist just said the reason High Island was added to Hurricane Warning was because Gustav was just closer to the coast, just a slight movement to the West.

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

this is the main part of the article i was reading about a few days ago

"A storm surge of more than 15 foot would put extreme pressure on New Orleans' flood defenses. The city is still vulnerable to a surge from the east, as happened during Hurricane Katrina, and to a lesser extent from Lake Pontchartrain to the north," commented Dr. Christine Ziehmann, director of model management at RMS. "The levees have been strengthened since Katrina, but only about a quarter of the planned work on the city's flood defenses has been completed, which would provide protection against a hurricane that occurs on average once every one hundred years."

evacuating early---great

fixing the levees---pure hot garbage of a job.

[KFDM COOP]

Evreyone stay safe!!!! Could be bad if a west trend continues!!

[stangchain]

Please keep up informed on this site if you don't mind.  If it continues to move west, would we see something on Tuesday?

[BearWolf]

it's making a western move seems like. What's up Coop

[adminbaberuth]

Listening to Gov Jindal on Fox, I think we are going to be allright here in Texas.

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

remember 3 years ago katrina was suppose to hit N.O., it bobbled east hrs before it came ashore.

[tvc184]

Things look great here on the ranch in East Texas.  Getting ready to go fishing!!!!!  Heading home by 9am in the morning.  Since they have called for a mandatory evacuation in Beaumont will we have any trouble getting home around lunch time tomorrow? 

The only trouble coming back is fighting the crowd getting back in.