*HURRICANE IKE AFTERMATH AND COMMENTS*

[bulldogdad55]

i think just the opposite ..  i think either down south texas or la. again....maybe a little close, but i don't see a direct hit here... i hope i'm right.. its just how i feel

[Bobcatfan4life]

Coop, how far down the texas coast will this thing have to hit for us to be ok here?

[KFDM COOP]

Depends on how big it is and how strong. Cat 4-5 it would have to be mid to lower coast to be ok here. Cat 1-3 mid coast we would be ok.

[PURPLE 4EVER]

i have a bad feeling about this storm i don't know why but i do

when gustav formed in the carribean, i just knew New Orleans was going to get it...

With this one...

I just don't know yet...

It is nice that we have all this time to watch what happens and prepare.

Just think if you were in Galveston when the big hurricane hit.

They had NO WARNING!

Hopefully the thing will keep going west.

[KFDM COOP]

[RonBurgundy68]

Oh dear...

[KFDM COOP]

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL092008

1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

SATELLITE AND CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE MADE

LANDFALL AROUND 0145 UTC NEAR CABO LUCRECIA.  SATELLITE MICROWAVE

DATA SUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OCCURRED SHORTLY BEFORE

LANDFALL BUT IMAGES FROM THE GRAN PIEDRA RADAR IN CUBA SUGGESTED

THAT THE INNER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI WAS STILL

INTACT AS THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST.  SFMR AND DROPSONDE

OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT

IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN

EASTERN CUBA.  REGARDLESS...WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER

MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST

SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...TO

ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER SOONER

THAN EXPECTED.  ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE

COMBINATION OF WARM WATERS AND FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD

RESULT IN STRENGTHENING....HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO

HOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL INTENSIFY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/11.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE

BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO THE FORECAST REASONING.  THE

STEERING CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AND NORTHEAST OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY

BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE

TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK ALONG MUCH OF

CUBA.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO

MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A

WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD.

HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A

TURN.  SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT

PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/0300Z 21.1N  75.8W  105 KT

12HR VT    08/1200Z 21.4N  77.6W    90 KT...INLAND

24HR VT    09/0000Z 22.1N  79.9W    80 KT...INLAND

36HR VT    09/1200Z 22.8N  81.7W    70 KT...INLAND

48HR VT    10/0000Z 23.6N  83.5W    80 KT...OVER WATER

72HR VT    11/0000Z 25.0N  86.4W    90 KT

96HR VT    12/0000Z 26.5N  89.0W  100 KT

120HR VT    13/0000Z 28.0N  92.0W  100 KT

[Majestyk]

Better call the office. 

[HoopInsider_Cooper]

New GFS model (pretty good) has strong trough picking up Ike below Louisiana and sending him NE.

[KFDM COOP]

GOOD NEWS!!!!!!!!!!! Hope that trend continues!

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

Hopefully any of those tracks except the blue one!

i like the blue one !! 

[KFDM COOP]

The new data will shift east i hope.

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

The new data will shift east i hope.

i think it will  8)

[shermdog]

I was looking this morning and one service has it making landfall just west of Sabine Pass.  However, it also stated that if the storm does not stay over Cuba as long, It could shift the trank to the NE. 

[NDN4Life]

Coop-

  How is that cool front looking? Is it going to make it to use and help keep Ike away?

[Guest baseball25]

So which models to believe? The official forecast remains to the left of the GFDL, HWRF and other models bringing Ike to Louisiana. That's because they don't like the erratic handling these models have on a shortwave trough moving down the U.S. east coast.

Forecasters I've talked to prefer the solution offered by the European model, which isn't shown above. This model brings Ike into Texas near Galveston

[PURPLE 4EVER]

Coop...

What times are the updates to the computer models posted?

It seems like they are updated three or four times a day.

[Guest baseball25]

they come out at 8am, 2pm, 8pm, 2am.......sometime a little bit earlier Euro comes out every 12 hours 

[KFDM COOP]

Yup. Euro comes out arond 2-2:30.

[KFDM COOP]

[HoopInsider_Cooper]

See ya'll for basketball season.

[shermdog]

See ya'll for basketball season.

Thats not even funny! 

[team first]

not funny, but true

[PURPLE 4EVER]

See ya'll for basketball season.

Still aways off....

a lot can happen...

lets hope it goes somewhere else...

[KFDM COOP]

Still a day to early to say where it's going. In fact the new GFS model has it at Corpus late Fri. Night.