*HURRICANE IKE AFTERMATH AND COMMENTS*

[hockeyfan]

The projected path of a storm can change a lot in a little bit of time.

Check out Rita's:

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[PURPLE 4EVER]

The projected path of a storm can change a lot in a little bit of time.

Check out Rita's:

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EXACTLY!!!

Just curious....

A Cat 3 going into Matagorda...

Would they evacuate Galveston?

Seems like they would.

I believe if Galveston evacuates, Dayton ISD shuts down due to the confluence of HWY evacuation routes.

[Majestyk]

Yeah, and that one did blow down some limbs around my place.

[82 5A State Champs]

I'm not going anywhere this time. I'm still broke from the money I spent on fuel and the work I missed from the last evacuation. I just dont want to miss any more HS football games than I have to. I guess we're not going to get to play Westfield. DANG! >

[WOSHIGHc/o2001]

Coop, are we packing up and leaving or what??

[Gasilla]

The projected path of a storm can change a lot in a little bit of time.

Check out Rita's:

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I think the main point is that there is no way to predict until it gets well into the gulf.

[HoopInsider_Cooper]

I can't answer for him, but I work on the print side of the media. Anywhere close, and yes.

This storm would have to be well south and no error for a north turn for them not to call it.

And dealing with a trough, I personally think they will pull the trigger. Rather be safe than sorry.

Also, models will show a more southern shift tonight. Let's see if that trend sticks into tomorrow and wednesday because some are thinking it will begin shifting back up the coast.

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

Coop. What do you think of the US Navy weather site? I heard they where usually right on the money with their forecasts and usually closer than most models. Here is their projection.

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8)

[KFDM COOP]

Coop, are we packing up and leaving or what??

We'll know Soon!

[bulldogdad55]

We have a game in Waller Thursday Night..i want to make that game..then come back to Nederland...i hope Ike will let me have my way COOP...

[KFDM COOP]

8) Me to!

[82 5A State Champs]

I still think, based on the current models, that it's gonna make landfall near Corpus Christi. We might get some wind and rain, but nothing too serious. I'm not evacuating this time. I'm still broke from last time! >

[W.Hughes2008]

I'm evacuating on Wed. to Reno!!! .. no not really but I will be leaving for the Reno Air races .. so have fun without me!!....I guess you count that as an Evacuation

[KFDM COOP]

[fatelvis04]

I was digging around trying to find something on my blog and noticed something I found surprising... Saturday, the day they expect it to make landfall, is exactly one year sunce Humberto did.

[KFDM COOP]

Yup.

[KFDM COOP]

[Guest setxgal]

Hey Coop, if it goes exactly where that line is(in the middle of that area), what would we feel here?

[KFDM COOP]

Alot less!

[RonBurgundy68]

I'm not believing any model or map until it gets into the gulf for a while... Rita gave me a reason for that...

[bulldogdad55]

WOW!!... we could only be so lucky for it to end up way down there

[KFDM COOP]

AFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALMOST MOVING ASHORE ON

THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE

WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/11 AND IKE IS MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO...AND

JUST OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE

AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION OF IKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN

3-5 DAYS...THE GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT SOMEWHAT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS

DEPICT A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF

COAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFS AND ITS

ENSEMBLE MEAN...ALONG WITH THE NOGAPS...SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE

STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN 96-120 HOURS.

SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL INDICATE THAT A SHORT

WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL ERODE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO

INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD TURN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  I AM

FAVORING THE MORE WESTWARD OPTION AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WOULD SEEM

THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH ARE REGIONAL MODELS...WOULD NOT

HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL AS

A GLOBAL MODEL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD

FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BUT IS STILL GENERALLY NORTH

OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.  AS ALWAYS...IT CANNOT BE

OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST

POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/0300Z 21.8N  80.8W    70 KT

12HR VT    09/1200Z 22.4N  82.3W    80 KT

24HR VT    10/0000Z 23.2N  84.0W    85 KT

36HR VT    10/1200Z 24.0N  85.7W    90 KT

48HR VT    11/0000Z 24.8N  87.2W    95 KT

72HR VT    12/0000Z 26.0N  91.0W  100 KT

96HR VT    13/0000Z 27.0N  94.5W  100 KT

120HR VT    14/0000Z 28.0N  98.0W    95 KT...INLAND

[bulldogdad55]

COOP...  all this being said....at this time where do you think is the highest possibility of landfall...i know its only more of an educated guess at this point...but, what are you thinking?

[Gasilla]

WOW!!... we could only be so lucky for it to end up way down there

The Wunderground models are pretty encouraging too. The GFS model in particular has it hitting somewhere around the Texas/Mexico Border. I know everyone is shell shocked still from Rita, but storms have been coming in South of us for as long as storms have been tracked. Plus, this one is coming in from much further South than Rita did. Also, there were different weather circumstances when Rita hit.

...and no, I'm no Weatherman, I just play one because I live on the Texas Gulf Coast... :

[KFDM COOP]

The new GFS model will be out around 11:15 or so.